Football 301 Playbook: NFL Awards preview with picks and outsiders for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and more

We’re here. It’s game day. Let’s get the season started with my final predictions and picks for every major prize, division, and the Super Bowl!

For a more in-depth analysis of each choice, check out this week’s episode of Football 301 with Matt Harmon and Charles McDonald.

((All odds via BetMGM.)

NFL leading scorer

The candidates

Pick one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL out of a hat and make a case for him.

Patrick Mahomes on his quest for a three-peat. Lamar Jackson defending his MVP belt with Derrick Henry and other new faces. A Joe Burrow revenge tour. A Dak Prescott prevenge tour(?). Brock Purdy filling up the box score and the 49ers keeping winning. Ascension of one of the young gunslingers like CJ Stroud. Any of these make sense.

For my fanfiction I chose a different top passer.

The Pick: Josh Allen, QB, Bills (+850)

Allen will certainly have a statistical argument to lean on if he were a contender for this award. He has been at or near the top of the box score stats and underlying stats the past few seasons. It all comes down to team success and what the narrative case could be for each of these award picks.

For the team portion of this, I think the Bills will have a very good run game, be well-coached on defense (though the Matt Milano injury is definitely not fun to get over), and still have a nitrous-boosted gatling gun at quarterback. For Allen, I think the personnel reconfiguration on both sides of the ball, including losing receiver Stefon Diggs, will help build a case for how valuable his play is when the narrative catches up to reality. Allen has the mind-bending plays that put the Bills over the top, but he’s also very precise (he was first in catchable ball rate and second in dropback success rate on non-RPO and non-play action passing plays last season) and cerebral (yes, really) in how he plays the game.

The outsider: Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (+2800)

This is a throwback and a swing for the fences. I’m bullish on Richardson and the Colts’ offense as a whole. I think the run game will be dynamite (they were eighth in rushing DVOA in 2023 with Richardson and Jonathan Taylor on the field together for just one snap), and the Colts’ jumbo receiving corps will be a good fit for Richardson’s big arm and freakish accuracy. Richardson still has a long way to go to tap into all of his talent, but he’s far more polished and further along in his development than a guy with these few tangible football plays should be.

Offensive Player of the Year

The candidates

The non-quarterback with the best stats on a good team. Maybe a quarterback if we want to double dip.

The Pick: Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons +2000

New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has an extensive background with Sean McVay and his offensive philosophies: lots of three-wide receiver looks, condensed formations, movement and preferably the same personnel, including the running back, on every snap to limit bias.

A three-down skill set is a must for these demands of a running back; the ability to run consistently on a drive, receive the ball, and also be solid in pass protection. It requires a combination of size, skill, stamina, and intelligence. Todd Gurley and Kyren Williams have thrived in this heavy-snap role. And I think it’s Bijan Robinson’s turn to do the same (his backup Tyler Allgeier could also fit into this role, by the way).

Even things like the Rams’ recent switch to more duo run schemes are something that would suit Robinson, considering that was his best run concept in college (and the Falcons have oddly rarely run it in 2023). Robinson hit the rookie wall last year, seemingly mentally swamped as he was asked to do more and more with each passing week. A deep breath this offseason plus an offensive system that fits his skill set like a glove should see him load up on touches, yards, and scores.

The Outsider Horse: Jonathan Taylor +3500 or CeeDee Lamb (whose current odds of +1000 make him more likely)

Lamb would be my real, in-all-honestly-pick. Because who else is catching or running the ball in Dallas but Jake Ferguson and the ideas of Brandin Cooks and Ezekiel Elliott?

For Taylor, see the Richardson text above.

Defensive Player of the Year

The candidates

Sacks seem to be the name of the game. Dark horse picks are more fun when you want to throw a dart at an off-ball player.

The Pick: Micah Parsons, Edge, Cowboys +550

I’m going with the chalk pick here. Parsons is a force of nature and one of the best players in the game right now. He’s been on the verge of winning this award before, but hasn’t had the standard box score numbers to put him over the top.

Enter Mike Zimmer. I think a more solid defensive structure, with interesting third-down blitz looks that could set Parsons up on the inside again, would be beneficial for Parsons to start putting up the numbers.

The outsider: Kyle Hamilton or Fred Warner

It takes special circumstances, but a player who can’t play football as well as these two deserves this.

Danielle Hunter at +3500 could have the sacks and “improved Texans defense” narrative behind her if you want to throw a dart at another edge defender.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

The candidates

One of the six quarterbacks drafted in the first round is a good start (pending Penix). Or maybe one of the talented receivers taken early.

The Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals +750

I’ve been very pleased with the Cardinals offense this year and Harrison Jr. is a big part of it. He’s as pro-ready as you’ll find at receiver. Long, smooth, and an excellent route runner with great catching range. He gets to play with a rejuvenated Kyler Murray (more on him in a sec), a rising play caller in Drew Petzing, and other weapons (Trey McBride) and a run game that defenses will have to respect. I have no qualms with you thinking Caleb Williams or one of the young talented quarterbacks wins this award, but Harrison Jr. is ready to hit the ground running.

The Black Horse: Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams +6600

The Rams’ run game (if the OL is actually healthy) should be one of the best in the NFL this year. Kyren Williams will be the featured back in a heavy-usage role (see Bijan Robinson pick above), but Corum’s good vision, running style and smarts also fit this offense perfectly. If something were to happen to Williams, who has a checkered injury history, Corum could have a big year.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

The candidates

There was no first-round defensive player selected this year until UCLA’s Laiatu Latu went to the Colts at No. 15. So there are no easy edge rushers to just tab here. There was no linebacker selected until the 45th pick, and rookie cornerback is really, really hard.

The Pick: Byron Murphy, DT, Seahawks +1000

Murphy is a different flavor than the rest of the Seahawks’ front, which features a lot of tough guys, and Mike Macdonald has a recent history of unlocking a similar player in Nnamdi Madubuike. This should allow Murphy to do what he does best: shoot the ball and ruin the play.

The Odd One Out: Junior Colson, LB, Los Angeles Chargers +3000

Feel like throwing a dart? Colson will start right away at center for the Chargers, with his old college defensive play-caller Jesse Minter calling plays. The Chargers’ defense still has a lot of holes, but Colson has experience on the defensive end and is a smart player who could use some tackles. If I’m thinking like a voter, nobody’s getting sacks, so let’s just look at some other stat columns, shall we?

Offensive Lineman of the Year

Tristan Wirfs, OT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (no odds, it’s a price I just made up)

He’s been dominant since moving to the left side last year. He’s one of the best offensive linemen in the game, let’s treat him that way.

Coach of the Year

The candidates

Subtract the total number of matches won this year from last year. Then you have a nice overview.

The Pick: Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks

I’ve really come around to this Seahawks team the more I’ve watched it this summer. Macdonald is an effective and respected coach who has built an interesting staff around him. A surprising playoff run with solid play on both sides of the ball (especially after the departures of Pete Carrol and Bobby Wagner) on a team that’s expected to win about seven games, and he’s as good a prospect as anyone.

I also think Shane Steichen is a good option at +1500 if you want to continue the Colts’ optimism.

Comeback Player of the Year

The candidates

If you bet on this, you’re crazy.

The Pick: Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals +2000

My optimism about the Cardinals offense applies here as well. Last year was inconsistent at times as he shook off the rust, but Murray seemed more focused on the pre-snap and processing aspects of quarterback play than I’ve ever seen. I think the buy-in that Drew Petzing and head coach Jonathan Gannon have given Murray seems to have paid dividends in his confidence and ownership of the offense and his own game. I’m excited to see how it all plays out this year.

The Outsider: No way, guys

NFL Division Winners

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys +170

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers -200

NFC North: Green Bay Packers +210

NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +300

AFC East: Buffalo Bills +180

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs -300

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens +135

AFC South: Houston Texans -105

Wildcard teams

AFC: Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins

NFC: Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks

Finalists of the conference

NFC: Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions

AFC: Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans

Super Bowl LIX Game

Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Super Bowl Champion

Green Bay Packers