Fantasy Football: What ADP Can Tell Us About the 2024 Draft Landscape

Players retire, competitors move on, but one thing always remains the same… ADP.

Season after season, we use average draft position (ADP) data as one of our primary reference points when drafting players based on their perceived value. But how can we use ADP to our advantage in 2024?

Remember, a player’s ADP is a suggestion, not a guideline. ADP represents the average draft position of players across a wide range of fantasy drafts at any given time. ADP is often considered one of the most critical components of your fantasy draft. So, as we prepare for fantasy season, let’s talk about what you should keep in mind when it comes to ADP.

Theme for 2024: Inflated Receiver ADPs

The days of first-round heavy running backs are over! There are currently seven receivers drafted in Round 1 in 12-team leagues, and the madness doesn’t stop there. Roughly 30 receivers are drafted in the first five rounds. Rookies like Marvin Harrison Jr. (18.7 overall ADP) and Malik Nabers (70.4 overall ADP) have aggressive ADPs, and we haven’t even reached the peak of draft season hype yet.

But there are a few things to keep in mind with receivers ADP specifically. The Round 1 receivers are there for a reason. They are reliable, consistent, elite components of their respective offenses that are not going away. Draft them with confidence.

Round 2 is where things get a little tricky. We have several young players like MHJ and Drake London (who actually go in Round 3) who we could potentially draft at their ceiling, along with veterans like Davante Adams and Mike Evans in potentially risky offenses. Rounds 3 and 4 have receivers in crowded offenses like Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins, and DJ Moore.

Be careful about hitting already inflated ADPs. Don’t be afraid to go off the grid and draft a higher-level player at a different position. While it may seem crucial to grab multiple receivers early in the game, don’t force the issue. There are excellent mid-round options later on that you can pair as a solid WR2 with one of the elite Round 1 receivers and still build a strong roster.

The Fallout: RB Dead Zone isn’t quite dead yet

With receiver ADPs pushed up, something has to be pushed down, and the result is depth at other positions. The RB Dead Zone is typically considered Rounds 3 through 6. Round 3 features a high-upside player like De’Von Achane. Round 4 features James Cook. But Round 6 in particular features some truly valuable RB1s in Rhamondre Stevenson, Zamir White and Raheem Mostert.

The Patriots are likely to run a lot this season and the recently paid Stevenson should be a focal point of their offense. Zamir White has a chance to be this year’s Rachaad White. Mostert is coming off an RB1 season.

Don’t be afraid to dip your toes into the dead zone. There are certainly some red-flag players, so don’t attack it with reckless abandon. Focus on upside and value. Selecting the right dead-zone running back can be a league-winning move.

Added bonus: quarterback depth

With the emergence of young players like Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love, the quarterback position is extremely deep this season. Last year’s overall QB3 — Dak Prescott — is being drafted as a QB9. Players like Justin Herbert (who is expected to be ready for Week 1 after a foot injury) and Trevor Lawrence are being drafted outside the top 15 at the position. Add to that exciting incoming rookies like Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams, advantageous schemes for players like Jared Goff and injury discounts for players like Kirk Cousins ​​and Deshaun Watson. You can target the player of your choice at any point during the draft.

That kind of freedom gives you the flexibility to customize your setup to your own liking.

Keep in mind, though, that quarterback depth doesn’t mean you have to cut early-round quarterbacks. This isn’t a mandate for late-round quarterbacks. The best quarterbacks are still excellent values, and I personally drafted both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts on redraft teams this offseason. The beauty of this season, though, is that you’re not forced to draft one within a certain range.

A new look: tight end levels

In previous seasons, Travis Kelce was the default, often drafted in the first round and generally separated from his peers. In 2024, the tight end ADP will look very different. Sam LaPorta is the consensus top-ranked tight end with either he or Kelce as the first tight end off the board in the late Round 2/early Round 3 — the two have nearly identical ADPs. That leaves a bit of a gap in ADP with the next few guys.

The way I approach tight ends this season is by sticking to tiers. While I use tiers for all positions, I will be very strict with tiers for tight ends in 2024. There is a clear and defined Tier 1 with LaPorta, Kelce, Trey McBride, and Mark Andrews. These players are unquestioned top-two looks in their respective offenses with proven TE1 upside and no competition from another tight end on their team. I would be very comfortable with any tight end in Tier 1 and would have no problem passing on, say, LaPorta to bring in Andrews because they offer a similar range of outcomes.

Tier 2 consists of Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts and Evan Engram. Again, these guys have similar streaks of outcomes — and similar hurdles to jump.

Tier 3 is extremely large and features players with more defined roles but limited options, such as Dallas Goedert and Dalton Schultz, and players who face new attacks or unknowns, such as Pat Freiermuth and Brock Bowers.

Choosing a level and creating a plan are key to making the best choices for your tight end in 2024.

Remember: Fantasy is more fun when you put YOUR guys together

Fantasy football is just more fun when we draft the players we truly believe in. Are you a Drake London truther like me? Get your guy! Get him in the first round? No, don’t go crazy. Instead, pick him with confidence in the second round and don’t be afraid to “overreach” or “draft a player at his ceiling” because of ADP.

Assemble a team that wins the competition AND makes sure you do somersaults every Sunday.