Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ’em, sit ’em

Sit-and-start advice for fantasy football should always be relative and competitive. Many starts and sits are also obvious, so in this column we’ll focus instead on marginal options, the ones that really require some thought. Good luck with your week 5 lineups!

New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings (London)

Start: Garrett Wilson

Sits: Jordan Addison

Keep the underwhelming Garrett Wilson in fantasy lineups versus a pass-funneling Minnesota defense that allows the most passing yards in the league and the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Vikings opponents have the league’s highest success rate this season (71%).

Addison is coming off a two-touchdown game, but he saw a modest five chances. Sam Darnold’s TD percentage of 10.4% is miles above his career level (3.9%), and he will regress as Aaron Jones scores more touchdowns. The Jets have allowed the second-fewest passing yards and fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers this season, and Minnesota’s “home” game will be played outdoors.

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears

Start: Chuba Hubbard

Hubbard has seen a big increase in usage and has been the No. 4 fantasy pick along with Andy Dalton over the past two weeks. Jonathon Brooks’ practice window was not open and both Miles Sanders (illness) and Diontae Johnson (ankle) have been banged up. Chicago is a run-funnel defense with the second-fewest fantasy points going to quarterbacks, but the ninth-fewest going to RBs. Hubbard is in the top 12 this week.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

Start: Tee Higgins

Higgins has a much higher target share (23.5%), first read target percentage (31.0%) and air yards share (34.9%) this season than Ja’Marr Chase (18.3%, 24.4%, 24, 2%). It’s just a two-game sample, but Higgins returned from injury and should be getting healthier now. Higgins is the WR63, but he is the WR5 in expected fantasy points.

The Bengals have the second-highest neutral passing percentage in the league, and Joe Burrow’s wrist looks healthy as he leads the league in end zone targets. The Ravens have yielded the third-most passing yards and ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and their opponents have the second-highest success rate (68%) in the league.

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Sit Zack Mosswho is now in an even split with the more explosive Chase Brown and gets a Baltimore defense that gives up by far the fewest rushing yards (42.5 per game) and third-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

Start: Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid led the Bills in rushing percent before the fourth quarter of last week’s big loss. He also finished with a team-high seven goals, and Sunday could be busier with Khalil Shakir missing training this week. Kincaid is currently an easy starter among a weak group of tight ends.

Indianapolis Colts @Jacksonville Jaguars

Start: Brian Thomas Jr. & Christian Kirk

Thomas Jr. led Jacksonville last week with a 33.3% first-read target share, and this season he leads the team in target share (27%). The rookie has impressed and the Colts are a favorable matchup. Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby and Gabe Davis are all dealing with shoulder injuries, so BTJ should be busy on Sunday. This matchup should be quick, and Indianapolis opponents have averaged by far the most plays per game this season.

Kirk would benefit from having Evan Engram and Indy in Kenny Moore’s corner. Both Jacksonville wideouts could be top 20 fantasy WRs in this matchup.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Start: Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson is not without real risk, having played four straight games, and coach Jerod Mayo said starting Antonio Gibson is “under consideration.” Gibson has played well in limited work this season, but he is literally the only running back with fewer fumble attempts since Stevenson entered the league. Stevenson has had a tough program and returns home for the second time this season on Sunday. He gets a rare matchup where the game script could be favorable, as Miami’s offense looked the worst in the league without Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs this season, so stick with Stevenson this week.

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders

Start: Amari Cooper

Cooper dropped a 36-yard touchdown in Week 1, was robbed of a 65-yard touchdown in Week 3 and had an 82-yard score called back on a penalty last week. He’s the WR48, but the WR8 in expected fantasy points. The Browns get a second seed in Washington, allowing most of the fantasy points to go to wide receivers this season. The Commanders have also yielded 7.9 YPA and a TD:INT ratio of 10:0. Jerome Ford is a sneaky fantasy starter this week, but Cleveland figures to throw regularly while facing the league’s best offense.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Seated: Zamir White

Start: Javonte Williams

White played just two snaps after losing a fumble early in the fourth quarter last week, and coach Antonio Pierce said Alexander Mattison deserves and will get more reps. White has by far the worst DVOA in the league, and Mattison’s success rate is almost twice as high. The Broncos have allowed just 22 points over the past three games this season and the fewest yards per game. White, who is also dealing with an injury suffered in practice, remains the RB37 in the expert consensus rankings this week (behind Alexander Mattison), which is also a testament to how thin the running back is.

Williams is a sneaky start, as he saw more work (and looked better) after Tyler Badie suffered an injury last week. The Broncos are favored and have allowed the fewest yards per play in the league this season. The Raiders have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs and enter without Davante Adams (and perhaps Maxx Crosby) and with a set offensive line, so the game script should favor Williams.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

Start: Brock Purdy

Purdy is due for touchdown regression. He has the second-most passing yards and leads the league in YPA by half a yard. He also leads the NFL in adjusted EPA/play and has 257 more air yards than any other quarterback. Purdy throws by far the deepest downfield among the leaders in catchable air yards percentage. After posting the all-time best YPA season (9.6) last year (minimum 350 pass attempts), Purdy’s remarkable efficiency (9.3 YPA) has remained despite the 49ers ranking 31st in yards and yards after the catch Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle all missing time.

San Francisco has the league’s highest implied team total this week (28.8 points), with almost one field goal. Arizona has allowed the second-most YPA (8.5) and fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, so Purdy is my QB4 this week – comfortably ahead of struggling Kyler Murray (who gets 6.0 YPA with just one touchdown during unscripted opening plays!).

Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams

Start: Dontayvion Wicks & Jordan Whittington

Wicks led the league in aerial yards last week while seeing 13 goals for the team after Christian Watson went down with an injury. Wicks has suffered multiple drops this year (he ranks last in ESPN’s catch rating), but he has also led Green Bay wide receivers by a wide margin when he has been on the field over the past two seasons . Wicks ranked in the top 20 in fantasy points per target last year as a rookie, and he ranks first in expected fantasy points per route this season; Watson and Wicks have a combined NFL high end zone target percentage, and Watson is now sidelined.

The Packers offense looks great with Jordan Love, while their defense looks shaky, so it’s a nice carnival lineup for Green Bay’s pass catchers (Tucker Kraft is in the top 10 this week). The Rams have yielded an NFL-high 9.1 YPA, most EPA/pass, and sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, so Wicks has the edge at WR1 this week.

Jordan Whittington is an option for players in deeper leagues as his route participation increased to 97% last week. Whittington has been the star of the preseason and has earned a TPRR of 25% with Cooper Kupp off the field. The Packers have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to wideouts (and the third-lowest EPA/rush), so Whittington is a sleeper.

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks

Start: Geno Smith & Wan’Dale Robinson

Smith leads the NFL in completions, attempts and passing yards, and his low TD rate of 2.5% is sure to regress. He has the lowest off-target percentage this season on throws of more than 10 air yards behind an improved offensive line. Seattle ranks third in plays per game and first in success rate above expectations. The Seahawks are loaded at wide receiver and are unlikely to continue scoring 67% of their touchdowns on the ground (Kenneth Walker was limited in practice on Thursday). Seattle has the fourth-highest team implied total (25.0 points), so Smith is a top 12 QB this week.

Robinson has the fifth-most goals in the league despite having a teammate who is on pace to break the NFL record for single-season goals. Robinson will be extra busy on Sunday with Malik Nabers a gamble and Devin Singletary highly questionable. Robinson is worth starting this week if needed, especially in PPR leagues. Meanwhile, Tyrone Tracy would also be a deep sleeper if Singletary were sitting.

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Seated: Dak Prescott & Rico Dowdle

Prescott’s YPA has dropped nearly a full yard during his career, and he is averaging just 200.0 yards through two games away from home this season. He’ll miss Brandin Cooks on Sunday, and CeeDee Lamb has so far failed to break up as usual in 2024. Pittsburgh has allowed just four passing scores this year and just 3.7 yards per game at home. Steelers opponents have averaged the fewest plays per game this season – 20 fewer than teams facing the Colts!

Dowdle has earned a bigger share of Dallas’ backfield over the past two weeks, but Pittsburgh has given up the second-fewest YPC (3.7), just one rushing TD and the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Dowdle could be started during the bye weeks if needed given his running back depth and projected volume, but he has just two red zone touches all season.

New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs

Start: Travis Kelce

Kelce was the TE14 in fantasy points per game to open the year (while also starring). Big question) despite tight end production being significantly lower across the league. But his first-read target rose to 46.7% last week when Rashee Rice left early with an injury. Rookie Xavier Worthy has struggled to get goals and has the third-lowest winning percentage in the league. Kansas City will also likely rely on 6-foot-1 Kareem Hunt (who was limited in Thursday’s practice) as their lead back, so Kelce is suddenly the hallmark of the Chiefs offense again with Rice out.