Fantasy Football Week 1: 5 Backfields We’re Keeping a Close Eye on

As much as we want to be perfectly accurate with our fantasy football preseason predictions, some things are beyond our control. Luckily, many of our questions will be answered this week, as Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here.

In this article, I’ll highlight some of the teams I’m watching in Week 1 to get a better idea of ​​how carries are distributed across their backfields.

Last year, the Rams’ backfield was a big story in Week 1 after Kyren Williams replaced Cam Akers as the starting running back and went on to become a league-leading fantasy prospect. The hope is that the same doesn’t happen with Williams this year. With the recent news that the Rams plan to use Williams as their punt returner, it seems like the team doesn’t want to give Williams the full workload this year.

Meet Blake Corum, the Rams’ third-round draft pick who had one of the most successful college football running back careers in recent memory at Michigan. If Corum sees a significant portion of the Rams’ backfield touches to start the year, it could spell disaster for fantasy managers who selected Williams in the second round of their drafts.

That said, I’m generally optimistic that Williams will remain the team’s clear No. 1 running back. Unlike Akers, Williams was incredibly effective with the ball in his hands last year, rushing for five yards per carry and finishing third in PFF rushing grade. It’s still worth keeping an eye on, but I think the fantasy community as a whole is overreacting a bit to the punt return news.

I expect Williams to see a small drop in carries since Corum wasn’t a third round pick to sit on the bench, but nothing that will lower Williams’ value too much.

The lack of clarity surrounding the Dolphins’ backfield has made De’Von Achane one of the most polarizing players in fantasy. On one hand, it makes sense to assume he’ll take over the starting job in Miami after a historically efficient rookie year. On the other hand, Mostert is still listed as a starter on the Dolphins’ depth chart and was the overall RB2 in fantasy football last year.

Considering that Achane and Mostert have both dealt with their share of injuries, rookie running back Jaylen Wright could also be relevant as a potential backup with a lot of upside. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel recently said that he plans to keep all three running backs involved during the season and potentially ride the hot hand week-to-week. Based on this information, I would definitely consider Wright for the season, as McDaniel’s words indicate that he could be used a lot more than we expect.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on the Dolphins in their Week 1 game against the Jaguars to see how Achane, Mostert and Wright are rotated.

The Bengals haven’t said much about how they’ll split carries between Zack Moss and Chase Brown. Moss signed a two-year, $8 million contract with the Bengals in the offseason after a productive season with the Colts in which he had a career-high 986 scrimmage yards, arguably outpacing Jonathan Taylor. Brown, meanwhile, will likely take on a larger role after a quiet rookie year.

I think the Bengals will split time about evenly between Moss and Brown, with Moss playing a two-down back and Brown playing a pass-catcher and in two-minute drills. Neither would have much value in that scenario, but there’s always an upside to great offenses. If either Moss or Brown can clearly outperform the other in the first few weeks of the year, they’d become fantasy gold — Joe Mixon has been a top-12 fantasy running back for three straight years, so there’s certainly potential value to be had from the Bengals’ offense this year.

Will Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery remain in a near-equal timeshare? That’s the biggest question regarding the Lions’ backfield this year.

The two clearly coexisted last season, with Gibbs finishing as the RB10 and Montgomery as the RB13. However, Gibbs has climbed the draft boards this offseason and is typically the fourth or fifth running back on the board, meaning fantasy managers will likely want a little more from him in his second year. Gibbs only saw more than 15 carries in a game twice last year, both of which were games when Montgomery was injured. Montgomery was also the Lions’ favorite back in the red zone last year, with 50 carries inside the 20-yard line compared to Gibbs’ 37.

In Week 1, I’ll be watching to see if the Lions continue to rotate Gibbs and Montgomery in every offensive series, as well as who gets the goal-line work. Gibbs is clearly talented enough as a runner to perform even with a lighter workload, but Montgomery would stand out as a tremendous value if his usage remains similar to last year.

The Cowboys have had a running back rush for at least 1,000 yards in eight of the last 10 seasons. That number becomes 10-of-10 if we lower the threshold to 975 yards. So it feels a little odd not to have any big-draft Cowboys running backs this year, with Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle both picked outside the first 10 rounds of fantasy drafts.

I can see the Cowboys alternating runs between Elliott and Dowdle, as Montgomery and Gibbs did last year, but I’m curious to see who gets the goal-line work. Elliott’s style of play is probably better suited to short yardage, but his best days are clearly behind him and he’s coming off two straight years of running for less than four yards per carry. And, for what it’s worth, there have been reports this week that Dowdle is being used as the Cowboys’ RB1.

Despite the playoff woes, the Cowboys’ offense is still likely a top-10 unit with Dak Prescott at quarterback, so the winner of the red-zone running back battle will have fantasy value as a plug-and-play FLEX option with room for more.