Fantasy Football: Top WR sleepers, breakout candidates for 2024

We’re just coming off a season where Puka Nacua and Nico Collins both produced at WR1 levels for ridiculously low draft prices, so the viability of fantasy football sleepers at this position isn’t really an open question.

If you need further convincing on this topic… you may need to retake a few lower-level Fantasy U classes.

Much like last season, this year’s league-changing breakout receivers will likely be a group of buzzy 25-and-under players who — in addition to their obvious talent — possess strong statistical indicators that suggest serious upside. Some of the top prospects are also clearly headed for increased usage, such as this third-year burner…

Last year one of the best ideas in football was a deep throw to Shaheed. Those throws often ended up like this:

Shaheed reached the end zone five times on attempts of 20-plus yards in 2023, catching 12 of his 21 chances. His passer rating when targeting deep throws was 121.5, which was of course among the highest in the NFL. This year, under new OC Klint Kubiak (formerly the Niners’ passing game coordinator), we can reasonably expect to see the usual deep shots to Shaheed, along with more quick YAC chances.

Let’s not forget that the only notable move New Orleans made at receiver this offseason was to cut Michael Thomas. This team has running back Chris Olave, Shaheed, Alvin Kamara and AT Perry at the top of the receiver hierarchy. No one should be surprised if Shaheed sees triple-digit targets and 1,000+ receiving yards next season. He’s been an unfair offensive weapon for the moment he first stepped onto the field for the Saints.

If you were to give the average NFL fan a hundred guesses, it’s pretty unlikely they could name the man who led all receivers in passer rating when targeted. Shakir caught 39 of his 45 chances for 611 yards and two scores (and zero picks), resulting in an outrageous 133.6 passer rating when targeted. He had a relatively low ADOT (8.6) and a relatively high average yards per reception (15.7), so you can probably deduce that he was among the NFL leaders in YAC.

Here’s a ridiculous example of Shakir’s ability to catch the ball after the catch:

The departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the offseason leave over 200 targets open in Buffalo’s offense, a lot of Shakir should get the most of it. He’s already one of the game’s most efficient and effective receivers, and now he’s headed for a potentially significant increase in workload. Shakir should be a priority for the mid-to-late draft.

Even by the standards of a position that requires extreme athleticism, Thomas is a lab-created mutant. He’s 6-foot-3 with 14-inch speed and a 38-inch vertical jump, and all those features jump off the tape.

As we’ve discussed here before, Thomas’ elite attributes align perfect with things that A) the Jaguars desperately need and B) Trevor Lawrence has always done well. Thomas was a verifiable big-play machine at LSU, averaging 17.3 yards per catch as a junior and throwing 17 catches to earn first-round draft status. If he approaches his rookie ceiling, he could lead all freshman receivers in touchdowns.

Let’s imagine a version of the Chiefs offense in which deep and intermediate pass attempts are actually caught:

Last season, Patrick Mahomes completed just 18 of 63 deep attempts, threw one TD pass and six interceptions on balls that traveled 20+ yards. It goes without saying that the best QB on the planet isn’t exactly bad in completing deep shots. The big problem in 2023 was the rogue’s gallery of receivers that KC sent down the field. So it was no big surprise when the Chiefs used their first-round pick on an insanely fast wideout (4.21 speed) with a long history of stellar collegiate production.

There are no guarantees with Worthy, but there’s simply no doubt that he possesses skills that we haven’t seen from KC lately, and that this team desperately needs. This is the kind of player who can tilt and reshape the court for any Chiefs skill player. If Worthy enters Mahomes’ circle of trust, he certainly has a shot at WR2 fantasy status.

For the sake of completeness: we are not promising you that there will be another Puka in the rookie class this year, because we have never seen anything like that guy’s 2023 season before.

But if we’re just looking for second- and third-day receivers with a clear shot at immediate fantasy relevance, Burton is clearly one of the strongest candidates. He wasn’t necessarily a volume receiver at Alabama last year, but he made the most of his opportunities, averaging 20.5 yards per catch and making eight house calls on 39 receptions. Burton has great hands and clear YAC ability:

The rookie steps into the role of No. 3 receiver in an upper-tier passing offense and should consistently find himself in favorable coverage situations alongside Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Burton has a clear path to 90-plus targets, volume that would all but guarantee him weekly WR3/flex status.