Fantasy football rookies 2024: Best rookie quarterbacks and sleeper QBs to draft

The 2024 NFL season is less than a week away! Where did summer go? If you have fantasy drafts coming up, read on. Even if you don’t, you should keep reading!

Last week I wrote about the 2024 rookie wide receiver class, which I think has a chance to be special right away. In that piece, I discussed how expectations for rookie receivers in fantasy have changed over the past two decades. Today, I’m going to repeat that exercise with the 2024 rookie quarterback class. The expectations for first-year QBs have changed, too, for some of the same reasons. They get a chance to play a lot more, a lot sooner. But unlike rookie receivers, it’s rare for a rookie QB to have a big fantasy season.

Before we go any further, you can find all of my fantasy content for the season, including rankings, players to watch and avoid, sleeper players, draft tips, and more, over on Big Blue View’s Fantasy Football Hub, SBNation’s sister site.

It used to be that rookie QBs almost never started right away, even though it was common for them to play four years of college ball. If we go back to the famed 1983 QB class, which featured six first-round QBs, including Hall of Famers John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Dan Marino, none of those six were Opening Day NFL starters as rookies, and the group started just 25 games total during the 1983 season, most of them by Elway and Marino (Kelly went to the USFL). It’s the toughest position in sports, and the adjustment from the run-heavy college game to the more balanced and complex pro game, and to the speed of NFL defenders, has been a big one.

It’s still a big adjustment, even as the college game has become more pass-heavy. But that hasn’t stopped teams from throwing rookie QBs to the wolves instead of letting them learn by watching and carrying a clipboard, as Patrick Mahomes did in 2017. Eight QBs were selected in the top 15 picks in 2021-23, and six of them were Opening Day starters as rookies, with a seventh (Justin Fields) starting in Week 3. In 2023, Colts rookie Anthony Richardson was the Opening Day starter despite being just 21 and having attempted fewer than 400 passes in his college career. I’ve noticed it when I look in the mirror: Things really do change in 40 years.

QBs are rushed into action for economic reasons, among other reasons. The rookie pay scale creates a situation where QBs are a steal for a few years, and teams are incentivized to try to build a winner quickly while their (hopefully) franchise QB gets a cheap deal. The financial advantage the Texans have with instant star C.J. Stroud on a rookie contract cannot be understated.

But Stroud’s surprising success last year is an anomaly in a larger story about caution. By definition, teams that draft in the top 10 picks of an NFL draft are usually not good. One or all of these usually apply: bad skill position players, a bad offensive line, and/or a bad coaching and support situation. Cut to Trevor Lawrence nodding slowly. Bryce Young hears me, too. Teams get high draft picks for a reason. QBs are pushed to the top of NFL draft boards and start earlier, but that doesn’t make them good players, either in real life or for what we care about, fantasy football. Most rookie QBs don’t have the kind of season Stroud just had. From 2018-2023, 18 QBs were taken in the top 15 picks of the NFL draft. Of those, only three — Kyler Murray (QB5, 2019), Justin Herbert (QB9, 2020) and Stroud (QB9, 2023) — have finished in the top 15 at the position. Most rookie QBs struggle. Jets fans know what I’m talking about; they’ve seen this horror movie twice in the last six seasons.

But that history doesn’t mean we should ignore rookie QBs in fantasy. Not only was Stroud a top 10 play last year, but Anthony Richardson was off to a fantastic start (20 fantasy points per game) before his season ended prematurely. Dual-threat QBs are especially appealing, even as rookies.

The story of Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft was offense. The first 14 picks were all offensive players (a record), and that included six QBs in the first twelve picks (also a record), including the top three picks. I’ve ranked the QBs in the order they appear on my draft board. The average draft position (ADP) is as of August 29. Note that my analysis assumes only redrafts (no goalies), a 1-QB format, and four points per passing TD. In dynasty or goalie formats, you look at these players very differently. I’ll also JJ McCarthy (10^and overall pick, Vikings) out of the discussion, as he’ll miss the entire season with a knee injury. Bummer. We’ll revisit JJ next summer.

Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

The Rookies

Jayden Daniels (ADP: 104 (QB13))

Daniels has been all over the draft boards all summer, and for good reason. QBs who offer his caliber of running ability are rare, and in fantasy, they’re worth their weight in gold. For better or worse, you get three times as many points for a rushing yard as you do for a passing yard, and you also get 33% more points for a rushing TD than a passing TD. Those extra points add up quickly, and it’s really hard for a non-running QB to finish the season as a top-5 QB. On his way to the Heisman Trophy last year, Daniels put up insane numbers. He threw for 40 TDs and collected over 1,100 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs. He did all that in just 12 games, while LSU’s defense struggled all year. Those aren’t misprints. No, I don’t expect him to put up those numbers this season. But the rushing floor pretty much guarantees him a top-12 finish if he stays healthy. If you don’t believe me, look at what Justin Fields did two years ago.

Washington’s situation isn’t perfect (they took Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick, after all), but it’s good enough. They have a bad defense and should be chasing points regularly, and there are decent skill position players around him. Kliff Kingsbury as an OC is also a plus, given his history of working with mobile QBs. I have Daniels ranked as a 11th QB, and I’m starting to think even that’s a bit low. I like the solid floor and high ceiling you get at his 8^and of 9^and round draft price. If you draft Daniels, I highly recommend getting a competent backup a few rounds later – someone like Matt Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert should do the trick. Daniels runs with abandon and staying healthy for 17 games is not something to take for granted. And if he struggles up front, you want a good pivot. I’m very excited about Daniels this year, and I’m not alone.

PRONUNCIATION: BUY at or before ADP. Pay if needed.

Caleb Williams (ADP: 98 (QB11))

I understand why Williams was the #1 overall pick, one spot ahead of Daniels, but I can’t understand why Williams is ahead of Daniels in fantasy drafts. My board has them flipped, with Williams as a 17th QB, which is well below market. I wonder if his ADP is just a product of all those success hungry Bears fans overdrafting him. Maybe. If you have a bunch of deep dish pizza guys in your league, prepare to miss out on Williams unless you make it. I’m not negative on Williams. Or Chicago (I was born there – true story). I just don’t have him in my top 12-14, which means I don’t have him as a QB1. Not yet anyway, and that’s partly because there are so many very good, proven QBs out there. He does have the rare honor of being a #1 overall pick who ends up in a very good situation. Chicago has a solid line with four starters, a solid trio of wide receivers with a variety of skills, plus solid tight ends and running backs. Williams is an exciting playmaker who can extend plays and bring some crafty upside rushing. I like him as a QB2 in a Superflex or as a low-end starter in a bigger league, and I think he could easily return value at ADP. But I can’t put him above Daniels, and for me it’s not that close.

PRONUNCIATION: PASS at ADP, but BUY if you can get a bargain a round or so later.

Bo Nix (ADP: 186 (QB25))

There’s been a huge drop-off in rookie QBs after Daniels and Williams. According to ADP, the drop-off is rollercoaster, about seven rounds. Nix, who went to the Broncos with the 12^and pick, was a bit of a polarizing prospect and the consensus was that Denver took him in the top half of Round 1. With five QBs already off the board and the Raiders right behind them, maybe they felt they had no choice. Nix is ​​an older prospect (24) who set an NCAA record last season at Oregon by completing 77.45 percent of his passes. He’s also a good runner. Reach or not, he’ll open the season as Denver’s starter and his ADP has crept up all summer, passing veterans like Daniel Jones and Derek Carr. The hope here is that Sean Payton can work his magic with Nix and turn him into a discounted version of Drew Brees — a high-percentage thrower who can move the chains with short, accurate passes and sprint for first downs and yards when he needs to. The supporting cast isn’t great, but there are solid pass-catching backs who should help with the screen game. Nix has some appeal in Superflex leagues as a low-end QB2 or third QB. He typically goes undrafted in 1-QB leagues, but he could be a good waiver wire player if he gets off to a good start.

PRONUNCIATION: Consider him at ADP in Superflex, and keep an eye on Waiver Wire elsewhere.

Photo by Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images

Drake Maye (ADP: 204 (QB30))

Maye was selected by the Patriots with the third overall pick. He’s a younger player (21) who brings a nice skillset, with very good rushing upside (1,200-plus rushing yards and 16 rushing TDs in his last two seasons at North Carolina) to go with a big arm. The Patriots named Jacoby Brissett the Week 1 starter, and that’s probably a good thing. This is one of those cases where starting a rookie immediately feels like a really bad idea. New England has arguably the worst offensive line in the league, and it also has one of the least experienced receiver groups in the league, plus a rookie head coach. This is a team that might only win a handful of games this season. Maye is the future, and moving him slowly (and not getting killed) makes a lot of sense. In fantasy, he could develop into a viable second QB in a Superflex once he gets a chance to play. I like drafting three quarterbacks in that format and I can’t blame you if you take him as the third guy.

PRONUNCIATION: Consider as third QB/stash in a Superflex, otherwise Waiver Wire watchlist.

Michael Penix, Jr. (ADP: 278 (QB34))

Penix will begin the season on the waiver wire in most leagues. Like Nix, he is an older prospect at 24. He suffered four season-ending injuries in college, so there is still some risk. The Falcons threw the biggest curveball of the first round of the 2024 draft when they selected Penix with the 8^and overall pick. He’s talented and had a monstrous senior year with Washington, but barring an injury to Kirk Cousins, which the Falcons opened up a few months BEFORE the draft, it’s tough to see him getting much playing time as a rookie. I wonder if Spencer Rattlerwhich was taken in the 5^and round (but was the next QB picked after Nix) and is vying for the backup position in New Orleans, will see action before Penix.

PRONUNCIATION: Leave him for the Waiver Wire (Rattler too).

That’s the story of the rookie QBs. Good luck with your fantasy drafts and teams, and be sure to look out for my weekly in-season fantasy content starting next week, both here and on sister site Big Blue View.