Fantasy Football Pulse Check: What to think of Caleb Williams and the young QBs’ performances in Week 3

It’s officially three weeks into the NFL season, and quarterbacks still aren’t quite “quarterbacking” the way we’d expected. Veterans from the retread continue to dominate — even Andy Dalton and Malik Willis stepped up with top-10 performances this week — and young players we expected to make a jump in Year 2 or make an immediate impact when rookies fall flat.

It’s time we evaluate their performance after Week 3, and how much confidence we have in their pass catchers.

Fantasy superstar QBs fail to reach fantasy draft value

CJ Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud’s early-season production isn’t alarming, but over the past two weeks he’s finished outside the top 15 in fantasy points. His only top-10 finish came in Week 1 against an Indianapolis defense that has had its share of early-season struggles, including allowing Caleb Williams the best performance of his early career (we’ll get to that in a moment). This week, Stroud completed 20 of 31 passes for 215 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions for his worst fantasy performance of the season.

Wrist measurement: Will Stroud get an exemption for his early season performances?

I’m willing to give Stroud a pass for his performance in Week 3 against Minnesota. In the words of Brock Purdy, that “schedule is crazy.”

But it’s concerning that we haven’t seen Stroud pass 260 passing yards yet. Stroud’s fantasy value comes from volume. He lacks the rushing upside to push him over the 20-point fantasy hump. Two hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns is a fine day for a quarterback, but it’s just not enough for Stroud to make his ADP pay off.

Look ahead to Stroud’s upcoming schedule and you start to see a problem. Outside of a matchup here and there, Stroud’s schedule isn’t exactly quarterback-friendly. Stroud goes from a solid mid-QB1 to a borderline quarterback QB with limited rushing upside.

There is a second question we need to answer: are we concerned about Stroud’s receivers?

Stroud’s current volume is enough to ensure weekly fantasy upside for Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Dell had his best performance of the year in Week 3, but he’ll remain a volatile asset until Stroud starts consistently putting up 300-plus yard performances. While we’re concerned about Stroud’s overall output, there’s no need to panic for the receiver corps outside of Dell.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Richardson’s concerns are far more significant than Stroud’s. While Stroud has been more mediocre, Richardson has been boom/bust/bust this season, and we’re faced with the reality of what Richardson’s fantasy production looks like when he’s not getting rushing touchdowns. It’s not like we were expecting a significant jump in Richardson as a passer, but his skills have been inconsistent. Richardson relies heavily on the deep ball with an extremely high average depth of target. When he makes it, it’s magic. However, after two straight misses, our confidence level plummets.

Wrist Test: Are We Prepared to Label Richarson a Failure?

The biggest concern here is that Richardson’s stats are declining. While our 2023 sample size was small, Richardson only had one interception in 84 attempts. This year, he already has four interceptions in 53 attempts. In 2023, Richardson had a completion percentage of about 60%. This year, it’s 49%.

This week’s game was intriguing. Despite Richardson’s struggles and low scoring, Indianapolis had plenty of red-zone opportunities. In terms of goal-line looks, the Colts relied heavily on Jonathon Taylor. We drafted Richardson for upside rushing, but if the goal-line touches continue to skew Taylor’s way, we’re in big trouble.

Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Prediction on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.

Should we be concerned about Richardson’s receivers, given Taylor’s dominance on the goal line and Richardson’s struggles in the air?

Unlike Stroud, Richardson’s disappointing performances have had a major effect on his pass catchers. Michael Pittman Jr. has a maximum of just four receptions and 36 receiving yards. On Sunday’s “Fantasy Football Live,” I expressed my concerns about Pittman’s future; that remains true after today’s game. Deep-ball players like Alec Pierce certainly benefit from Richardson’s skills, but they’re going to be inconsistent low-target players who you’ll never feel comfortable starting.

Deep-league QBs facing big consequences for their weapons

The Good: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Williams had his best performance of the season in an extremely high-volume game in which he threw 52 passes, completing 33 of them for 363 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Forty-four of those yards were a Hail Mary late in the half that was caught on a deflection by DJ Moore. Regardless, this was a huge step in a positive direction for Williams and the Bears. That said, it’s important to pause and contextualize this performance before we make Williams a weekly starter.

Wrist measurement: is this level of production the new expectation for Williams?

Indianapolis’ defense is a problem … and not in a good way. Williams’ strong performance against the Colts hardly sets a new standard for what to expect going forward. Sacks remain an issue for Williams, turnovers remain an issue, and the run game offers limited support. Williams’ upcoming schedule is friendly, but he’s still only a streaming option. The step up for Rome Odunze was a great sign for his development, and the resurgence of Cole Kmet has been exciting. It remains to be seen what kind of distribution we’ll see in a fully healthy receiving corps, but the increased volume and excellent matchups should help inspire confidence in Williams’ pass catchers going forward.

The Bad: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

In Levis’ defense, the Titans’ early schedule has been extremely unkind. Chicago and the Jets have two of the best defenses in the league, and Green Bay’s pass defense looks to be much better in 2024 with the addition of Xavier McKinney. Levis has four touchdowns on the season with five interceptions, plus a fumble thrown in each game. His performance in Week 3 was a slight improvement over the previous weeks, but that level of output just isn’t going to get the job done.

If we want to make excuses for Levis, there’s plenty of source material. But there are only so many excuses you can make when half the mistakes are entirely your own fault. Levis isn’t just struggling against tough defenses — he’s struggling against himself.

When it comes to Levis’ pass catchers, his inconsistencies make it difficult to trust his receivers. Levis’ volume isn’t enough to provide multiple fantasy-relevant receivers, especially when a significant portion of his passes go to running backs. Of Levis’ 26 completions, seven have gone to Pollard and Spears. We can expect Calvin Ridley to operate as the WR1 in good matchups and DeAndre Hopkins to step up when coverage locks Ridley in. Levis’ struggles put his pass catchers in flex positions with attendant volatility.

The Ugly: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Like Levis, Nix had his best performance of the year, and like Levis, we still have zero incentive for consistent fantasy production. When we look at Nix, we look at him from the perspective of how his play impacts the weapons around him, because Nix simply cannot be trusted even as a streaming option in deep leagues, and only offers desperate Superflex value.

Pulse check: Is there one starting option on the Broncos’ offense?

Three games into the season and Nix has yet to throw a touchdown. He has four interceptions and has failed to throw for more than 250 passing yards, with most of his own fantasy value coming on the ground. While Levis has managed to provide some fantasy value, Nix’s struggles through the air have destroyed the consistency and potential for any pass catcher.

Courtland Sutton’s Week 3 performance was his best of the season, but still barely gives us 10 fantasy points in half-PPR. Josh Reynolds has emerged as the Broncos’ WR2, but he remains a low-volume asset and there’s no consistency for a third pass-catching option with Greg Dulcich going from a targets leader in Week 2 to zero targets in Week 3. The Broncos’ entire offense will remain untouchable until Nix can provide both volume and touchdowns.