Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Patience, not panic, is vital for Anthony Richardson

It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we only have so much time to watch and analyze a player’s performance. But fear not — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge just how worried we should be — if we should be at all.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Richardson has been the league’s most inaccurate quarterback to open the season, culminating in a truly awful passing performance last week. It wasn’t a decision-making issue, as Richardson simply continues to miss open receivers. Still, he was tackled inside the three-yard line on two separate drives last week, so he was a few feet away from a very different fantasy production.

Another somewhat concerning issue is that Richardson doesn’t have a high scramble rate when he’s under pressure. Shane Steichen gave Richardson by far the league’s highest rate of designed runs in the red zone last season, so we should see more of that in 2024. Unfortunately, Richardson is facing a Steelers defense this week that is allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Before we panic too manyIt’s important to remember that last week marked Richardson’s 20th start since high school. He’s the youngest QB in the league who also has the best throw rate of the 2024 season. AR ranks first in air yards, first in money throws, and third in danger throws. Only Josh Allen has a higher hero throw rate. Richardson has allowed 8.0 YPA (eighth best) despite a terrible completion percentage, and he’s also suffered through the second-highest drop rate in the league. The combination of rushing and consistent deep throwing (in a good scheme, to good receivers!) offers enormous fantasy potential, currently ranking sixth in expected fantasy points.

Additionally, despite having the fastest pace in the league, the Colts have averaged 25.7 fewer offensive plays than their opponents – the equivalent of 4.4 possessions per game. Of course, some of that is self-inflicted (poor defense, offense unable to sustain drives), but such a large disparity is likely to diminish.

Richardson is a candidate to be benched this week against Pittsburgh, but few (if any) QBs can match his potential, so bear with me; he currently sits second to Patrick Mahomes in fantasy scoring after last week’s failure (which nearly yielded two rushing TDs).

The Richardson experience will be a roller coaster.

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Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

Aiyuk was a top 30 pick in Yahoo Leagues, but he’s been surpassed by Tutu Atwell and Ray-Ray McCloud in three weeks. Aiyuk has already matched his total drops this season (two) compared to last season. He was especially disappointing last week, when he took a backseat to Jauan Jennings with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle out in a very favorable matchup. Aiyuk saw 10 targets and Brock Purdy missed him wide open for a touchdown of 50+ yards. Aiyuk also finished last week with the highest separation winning percentage of any game this season.

Aiyuk wasn’t in full game shape and is clearly out of sync with Purdy after missing so much practice; he didn’t sign his contract until just before the season started. It’s unfortunate that Aiyuk hasn’t performed, but he’s 26 years old and had the most yards in NFL history on fewer than 110 targets last season. Aiyuk was also top five in fantasy points per route run, and he’s still in a great situation.

Purdy has been fantastic this season, throwing deeper and focusing on his wide receivers more than ever with Christian McCaffrey sidelined. The 49ers are allowing the third-most yards per play and just lost Javon Hargrave. Jordan Mason has already set a personal best in NFL carries and has never had 175 in college, while CMC’s timeline is looking increasingly bleak. All signs point to San Francisco passing a lot more this season, and Samuel and Kittle are already nursing injuries.

Aiyuk is a prospect you can buy cheaply in fantasy leagues.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Andrews returns to the panic meter after just running four routes last week. Isaiah Likely saw 14 more snaps than Andrews, while Charlie Kolar saw just four fewer. Game script played a role, as Lamar Jackson attempted just 15 passes. Still, Andrews is now averaging just 3.3 fantasy points this season, whether it’s because of tightrope surgery, a midseason car accident, age or a new role in the offense.

While fantasy managers’ panic levels should be high, tight end production has dropped considerable league-wide. Additionally, Buffalo has allowed a league-high 34 catches to the slot this season (and just 15 to outside WRs), and Andrews leads all tight ends in slot snaps this year (Taron Johnson remains out). It also feels like a fluke that he hasn’t seen a red-zone target yet after leading all pass catchers in RZ target% last season.

Andrews will be a disappointment compared to ADP, but he remains the TE8 in experts’ rankings this week given the matchup and alternatives.

Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs

Worthy ranks 70th in targets (11), 65th in target rate (15.9%) and 66th in routes run (44) this season despite Marquise Brown being out, Travis Kelce underperforming and Isiah Pacheco being sidelined recently. The rookie is the fastest player in the league, but Patrick Mahomes ranks 31st in air yards per attempt (5.1) this season. Kansas City’s pass rate has also fallen to 53% and Rashee Rice has emerged as a true alpha.

Worthy remains a big threat and will improve the more he plays in the league, but he is too risky to be used in fantasy lineups when he earns so few targets. He is the classic “better in best ball” player at this point. The panic level is high.