Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Better days are weeks ahead for the slumping Josh Allen

It can be so easy to panic fantasy football. After all, we only have a very limited amount of time to observe and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear – Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be – if at all.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen had one of the worst games of his career last week when he also suffered a possible concussion. Allen has matched nearly as many finishes outside the top 18 QBs this year (three) as he has over the past three seasons combined (four). While James Cook’s role in the red zone has grown, Allen somehow doesn’t have a single carry inside the five-yard line this season (he had 16 last year).

Allen just missed a 59-yard score last week and has still produced 10 touchdowns in five games during the slump. He remains an MVP candidate, so the panic level shouldn’t be high (assuming his health). That said, Buffalo gets the Jets and the Titans in the next two weeks – the top two defenses in passing yards allowed per game (151.5 average). Allen could soon be a great buy-low candidate.

Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Etienne saw fewer snaps than Tank Bigsby last week after aggravating his shoulder injury. Doug Pederson says Etienne will remain the starter, but it’s clear he expects a lower workload going forward. Etienne wore out the second half of last season after receiving more work than ever, and Bigsby looks like the NFL’s most improved player in 2024.

Bigsby ranks first in YPC and first in rush yards above expectations per attempt (by a mile). He gets 6.5 YPC after contact with an avoided tackle rate of 51%. Bigsby ranks 38th in rush attempts, but fifth in broken tackles.

Etienne is a good player who will get most of the passing work, but he will still lose carries to the emerging Bigbsy. Etienne looks like a gamble to be worth his ADP.

Breece Hall, New York Jets

Hall has combined for just 27 rushing yards over the past two games. Braelon Allen was a problem (and would become even more so if he took over the goal-line role), but the Jets’ offense was the biggest reason for Hall’s disappointment.

New York has scored the same number of points through the first five weeks of this season as they did last season, when Zach Wilson produced a better YPA than Aaron Rodgers currently has. The Jets’ run blocking ranks second in the YPC before contact at RB while allowing the third-highest stuffed run rate despite having the fifth-lowest stacked box rate in the league.

Allen’s advanced rushing stats are nothing special (albeit better than Hall’s), and he was loaded with consecutive short third- and fourth-down runs and dropped a pass on Sunday. Hall still had the fifth-highest backfield snapshare split in the league last week, and he faced a Minnesota defense that allowed just 57.0 RB rushing yards per game. Hall’s usage rating (8.4) would make him a mid-to-low-end RB1 most seasons.

Still, the Jets’ dysfunctional offense will continue to hamper Hall, and Allen replaced him when Rodgers threw a one-yard TD pass to Garrett Wilson during the team’s final goal-line situation. There is obvious concern about a player drafted with a top-five pick who ranks in the bottom three in yards per touch. But Hall is too good right now to trade at the bottom of his fantasy value, especially with an upcoming matchup against a Bills defense that allows the most fantasy points for running backs this season (and the second-most EPA/rush).

Chris Olave, Saints of New Orleans

Olave was the WR33 despite New Orleans averaging the fourth-most points (28.0) through the first five weeks. Rashid Shaheed has more receiving yards, targets, first read targets, touchdowns and fantasy points. Shaheed has more than double the air yards and doubled Olave’s first read target last week. The Saints are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, and now Derek Carr will miss several weeks with an oblique injury.

Olave is no longer his own team’s WR1 and will see passes from a backup QB, so the panic level is high given his aggressive ADP.

George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pickens played just 57% of snaps last week as he failed to produce against a Dallas defense missing several stars. Mike Tomlin’s reasoning was “load management,” but Pickens appeared to run some questionable routes Sunday night. Clearly there is a problem here.

Pickens’ snap share stands at 81% on the season, which is exactly what Arthur Smith has done with Drake London.

Pickens faces a touchdown regression after seeing the second-most goals (36) without scoring this season. It’s also possible that a move to Russell Wilson at quarterback will help. But Pickens’ usage without Diontae Johnson suggested a top 10 ceiling, and instead he looks more like a top 30 fantasy.

Tank Dell, Houston Texans

Dell’s stats would have been very different if not for a few drops on potentially long touchdowns, but he just hasn’t looked the same this season. Whether it’s because of the leg surgery, a gunshot wound or a mental hurdle, Dell hasn’t been the same player regardless of the addition of Stefon Diggs. Dell’s average separation score has fallen from first place to 25th, and it has similarly fallen in ESPN’s open score.

Dell’s target depth has also plummeted, which could improve if Nico Collins lands on IR due to a hamstring injury. Dell should see more targets with Collins out and showed too much talent as a rookie to be dropped into fantasy leagues. But he only saw a 12.1% target share after Collins left last week’s game, so managers should wait for a ‘prove it’ game before restarting him.