Fantasy Football Fact or Coincidence: What We Wish We Had Known Before Week 1 to Use in Week 2

Knowledge is power, they say. As someone who has dedicated his life to collecting and disseminating knowledge, I largely agree. I always try to learn as much as I can before making a decision, and I don’t like being forced to decide when I feel like information is missing.

Yet there is something exciting about the period of not knowing: anything is possible.

Scientists who study gambling and addictive behavior have discovered that the part of the brain that signals reward via the neurochemical dopamine is most active during the period of uncertainty—after the bet is placed but before the outcome is known. This is true regardless of whether the bet wins or loses, and applies to a variety of gambling and gambling-related tasks. The implication is that the part of gambling that is addictive is the possibility of what could be, the potential for a win, rather than the win itself.

We don’t have to be problem gamblers to appreciate this about our fantasy football lineups.

From the time we drafted until Thursday night, our rosters were perfect. We could imagine the stats piling up and that little bit of wishful thinking led to a dopamine rush that felt good. Now that the games are played and we know the results of our games, things have changed. We like to win, of course, and we probably hate to lose, but the feeling that something is possible is long gone. The good news is that it is back on Thursday morning. Most of us have a source of optimism that we can always fall back on. With a few minor adjustments to our starting lineups, week 2 could be perfect.

Today I want to talk about some things we wish we had known going into Week 1… and what we now know for Week 2 and beyond.

With nine catches on 12 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown, Likely nearly doubled the next-best fantasy TE mark (Foster Moreau). We’ve seen flashes of goodness from Likely before, most notably when Mark Andrews was out for the second half of the 2023 season, but this still came out of nowhere and likely didn’t help anyone win their fantasy week.

Andrews was drafted as the TE5-7 this season, so this is a concerning bit of knowledge for some of you. No offense to Andrews and what he and Lamar Jackson have done over the years, but the Ravens would be foolish to bench Likely going forward.

This is a rare instance where I make the adjustment early to add Likely and start him in place of Andrews for a juicy Week 2 matchup with the Raiders.

It was a tale of two receivers in a game where the Saints scored a whopping 47 points against the Panthers. While Olave started all-around, Shaheed only helped those of you in the deepest leagues. The box score exaggerates the discrepancy here. Shaheed caught three of five targets for 73 yards and a score, while Olave caught both of his for a meager 11 yards. Shaheed’s depth of target was 20.5 yards, while Olave’s was 6.5 yards.

Both TEs also participated, splitting seven targets and scoring a touchdown each, but as we know, the way to beat Carolina is on the ground. Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams and even Jordan Mims participated, splitting 30 carries and accounting for two of the Saints’ TDs.

Shaheed’s spot on the field is secured and he’ll undoubtedly have useful games in your flex spot, but Olave remains the must-start WR, even against Dallas in Week 2. If we see this kind of performance from Olave in Week 3 against Philadelphia, I’ll consider benching him, but not before then.

Dobbins finished the week as the PPR RB4, with 135 yards on just 10 carries, a rushing touchdown and three short receptions. He was dynamic, quick, elusive — pick your own adjective to describe an incredible performance, especially when you consider his extensive injury history (most recently a torn Achilles tendon).

Dobbins clearly had the better hand in this game, though he was narrowly outplayed by Gus Edwards (a dismal 11 rushes for 23 yards). The aforementioned Panthers are up next, and I’d be happy to see either of the Chargers backs start in Week 2.

There were some interesting fantasy debates this summer, but none were as divisive as picking your favorite Packers WR. Reed made his case clear, holding off all comers and finishing as the week’s top receiver (four catches on six targets for 138 yards and a score plus a 33-yard touchdown run). My original pick, Romeo Doubs, led the receiver pack with seven targets (four for 50 yards), while Christian Watson saved his fantasy line with a touchdown (three catches for 13 yards).

One thing we can all agree on is that the Packers offense is legitimate when Jordan Love is under center, and it would be hard to bench any of these three bigs if they were fit. There’s optimism going into Week 2, even with Love unlikely to start, as the Pack take on a Colts who were just outgunned through the air (and on the ground, see next) by Houston.

So far, Mixon has the 2024 draft value. Time will tell if that performance has anything to do with the Colts’ run defense (which was among the most generous in 2023), but Mixon’s 30 carries speak volumes. Mixon reached the end zone once, totaling 153 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards on three catches.

There has been little to no bad stat line to be found from the Texans offense (outside of Dalton Schultz), but will that be the case when they host Chicago next Sunday night? I expect Mixon to at the very least produce more of the same against a porous Chicago run defense.

Not every story here is a happy one.

While this was a competitive and entertaining game to watch (Go Bills!), the best rookie WR fantasy prospect was hard to come by. While Harrison was involved in 95% of the teams snaps, he was only targeted on 8% of them. Greg Dortch was essentially the go-to guy with eight targets (31% targets on routes run, going 6/47 yards) while Michael Wilson scored the Cardinals’ lone receiving touchdown.

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I was all-in on Trey McBride this season anyway, but his nine targets anchor him in starting lineups despite the forgettable 5/30 receiving line he managed with them. Harrison suddenly screams caution as a fantasy starter after ending his NFL debut by catching one of three passes for just four yards. I’d exercise that caution if I were to consider starting Harrison in Week 2; the Cards face a Rams defense that did a terrific job of containing Amon-Ra St. Brown on Sunday night.

When Williams envisioned his NFL debut, I think it was pretty much the opposite of reality. He didn’t throw or run for a touchdown and only mustered 108 total yards of offense. On the plus side, he also didn’t throw an interception and recovered his lone fumble. The Bears won, which may say more about the Titans’ offense and Chicago’s defense… but it certainly shows a true team effort. With Tennessee boasting one of the better run defenses, Williams was under more pressure to perform on Sunday (D’Andre Swift was limited to 30 yards on 10 carries). That, along with the normal learning curve for rookie QBs, contributed to Williams’ lackluster start. Williams isn’t going to have an easy time in Week 2 against Houston and could be benched for a better option (Justin Herbert, maybe?).

How Darnold would perform, and the value Jefferson could provide as a result, was one of the biggest questions of the summer. Week 1 went a long way toward appeasing Jefferson’s managers, even though the star receiver “only” posted a 4/59/1 line. Darnold, more importantly, wasn’t a disaster, with 208 efficient yards, two TDs, and just one interception. It could have been a lot worse (though against the NY Giants, right?).

I’m not declaring Jefferson a final decision just yet, given the easy assignment in Week 1. The Week 2 battle in San Francisco will provide more clarity: where do you start with Jefferson and what does Darnold do, even in SuperFlex formats?