Fantasy Football ADP Droppers: Quarterback

We think we know, but we don’t.

Fantasy football managers have historically been victims of recency bias. If a player has not lived up to expectations the previous season, it is very difficult to back him or her again.

If you fool me once, it’s your shame. If you fool me twice, it’s my shame.

This often results in players being unfairly aggressively undervalued the year after a disappointing performance. When you add in other confounding factors like offensive line changes, fluid offensive weapons, and the coaching carousel, a poor previous season can be drastically suppressed in the ADP chain.

Let’s take a closer look at which players are being drafted well below last year’s fantasy finishes. Will these players absolutely outperform their ADP? Unsure, but it’s a starting point for all fantasy drafters to consider as they attempt to mitigate their own recency bias symptoms.

First up? Quarterbacks

2024 ADP Droppers: Quarterback

Russell Wilson/Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers

Statistically, there’s no better ADP quarterback value than Pittsburgh’s duo of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Both players spent last season on different teams, with Fields finishing as the 12th QB in fantasy points per game for the Bears and Wilson 15th for the Broncos. According to our FTN Underdog ADP Tool, Wilson and Fields are QB31 and QB32, respectively, even after Kenny Pickett blundered his way to the QB31 finish last season. The Steelers finished 10-7 last year despite a void at the NFL’s most critical position. Pickett threw just six touchdowns on 324 attempts despite a promising preseason. Among quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts, Pickett ranks 24th in passer rating and 26th in completion percentage, according to FTN charting data.

Wilson has locked up the starting job (at least heading into preseason) and is in a more stable offensive environment. Pittsburgh has two capable running backs, an improved offensive line and an emerging wide receiver in George Pickens, who ranked 25th out of 35 wide receivers per 100 targets in catchable target rate with just 68.9 percent of his targets being catchable. His average yards per target (10.8) is among the highest in the league and he now has one of the most accurate deep-ball passers under center in Wilson. Wilson finished with a respectable 29 total touchdowns to just eight interceptions despite operating in an inconsistent Denver offense.

Fields is one of the league’s best rushing quarterbacks, with 9.5 carries per game and 50.5 rushing yards per game, according to FTN charting data. The improved play under center will certainly help a Pittsburgh offense that ranked just 15th in offensive DVOA and 25th in overall offensive yards per game.

The late season schedule is terrible, especially Weeks 13-17, but their first nine games are very winnable and Pittsburgh doesn’t face an AFC North opponent until Week 11 against Baltimore. Head coach Mike Tomlin always finds a way to beat better teams and there are still rumors that Pittsburgh could add a wide receiver before the season. If you’re selecting a quarterback early in the best ball drafts, consider taking one (or both) of Pittsburgh’s quarterbacks.

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons

There is some fear about the elder Cousins, who is fresh off an Achilles injury and will turn 36 in August. Cousins ​​still had elite stats before his Week 8 injury last year, and was the sixth overall QB in fantasy points per game (19.4) before his season ended. He doesn’t have the upside of Justin Jefferson, but he inherits a solid wideout in 22-year-old Drake London and an athletic tight end in Kyle Pitts and will operate behind the second-best offensive line, according to our own Dan Fornek.

The Falcons have a two-game projected win lead over every other team in the NFC South. However, they have the easiest overall schedule, according to Vegas’ projected win totals, including below-average competition in the division. The Falcons are challenged at home against the Chiefs, Cowboys and Chargers and play five of their final eight games on the road. They could also start the season 0-3, opening the year against Pittsburgh, at home to Philadelphia and at home to Kansas City.

I’m still baffled that Atlanta selected quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in the draft rather than give Cousins ​​another weapon. That decision at least shows some concern for Cousins’ health as he ages. While I’m not overly optimistic about Cousins, a drop from his QB6 finish to his current positional ADP of QB17 could be too much of a correction.

Gardner Minshew/Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders

Uncertain quarterback situations lead to suppressed ADPs. Just like in Pittsburgh, there is value for whichever quarterback earns the starting nod for the Raiders.

Minshew is a 28-year-old professional who has shown promise with Jacksonville and Indianapolis. He had three 300-yard passing performances last season but has thrown for three passing touchdowns just once in the last 34 games of his career. O’Connell played in 11 games as a rookie last season and had a four-touchdown game in a 63-21 win over the Chargers in December.

Both quarterbacks are best ball afterthoughts with ADPs of QB33 and QB35, but there are worse situations than throwing to All-Pro wideout Davante Adams, PPR machine Jakobi Meyers and a pair of young, athletic tight ends in Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers. Would I bank on either quarterback as a season-long QB2? Absolutely not. But both could serve as short-term bye week replacements or more in redraft formats.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Fantasy drafters aren’t buying into Brock Purdy, even after an MVP-caliber season that saw him finish as the No. 7 overall QB. Purdy was just the third San Francisco quarterback to break the 4,000-yard passing plateau and finished with a franchise-high 4,280 passing yards, surpassing Jeff Garcia’s 2000 season. He has a treasure trove of weapons, including elite running back Christian McCaffrey, explosive wideouts in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, and one of the NFL’s best tight ends in George Kittle.

San Francisco is one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season and will likely be the favorite in every game. The 49ers are challenged with non-conference road matchups in Buffalo, Green Bay and Miami, with tough home battles against Detroit, Dallas and Kansas City.

I worry about their offensive line, which has our own Dan Fornek at a lackluster 14th overall despite his extremely fortunate health last season. He may not be flashy, but Purdy finished third among all quarterbacks with 31 touchdown passes and had five games with three or more passing scores. His drop of six spots from QB7 to his current ADP of QB13 represents one of the best values ​​in fantasy football.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Contrary to popular belief, the Chargers will actually pass the ball this season. When they do, those passes will come from one of the most talented quarterbacks in the game, Justin Herbert.

I’m rooting for the Chargers offense in Jim Harbaugh’s first season after Los Angeles remained competitive in 2021 and 2022 despite Brandon Staley’s struggles as head coach.

I thought the Chargers draft moves were great, selecting an elite offensive line prospect in Joe Alt and trading for a dynamic rookie wide receiver in Georgia’s Ladd McConkey. They also have the second-easiest schedule per Vegas’ projected opponent win totals and should see some positive regression from a brutal 3-8 record in one-score games.

And most importantly, the Chargers always play well against the Chiefs.

Los Angeles has won two of its last four games in Kansas City, and three of their last four losses have been by three points or less. The Chargers are 5-3 ATS against the Chiefs in their last eight games. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s rushing attack is also the perfect counter to the Chiefs’ explosive passing offense.

I expect Herbert (4.68 speed) to run more in Roman’s system, rushing 300+ yards for the first time since his 2021 season. Fear of Harbaugh’s run-first reputation is hurting Herbert’s ADP, making the 26-year-old quarterback the 16th overall QB after finishing as the 10th QB in a season where everything went wrong.

Herbert has a six-point differential, the same as Purdy, giving the Chargers quarterback fantastic ADP value as well.