Fantasy basketball: Biggest ADP gainers, decliners ahead of the 2024-2025 drafts

We’re less than two weeks away from the start of the regular season – wild, right? Between the big trades and injuries piling up, the fantasy basketball ADP markets are actively changing, and I’m here to discuss the biggest developments over the past seven days.

Fantasy Basketball Risers

OG Anunoby – SF/PF, New York Knicks

Total ADP: 88.1 vs. last seven days: 81.3

Net change: +6.8

The results of an annual NBA GM survey came out and Anunoby was named the second most versatile defender in the league. That didn’t affect his ADP climb, but it’s cool. The KAT/Randle swap didn’t change its role, so OG’s rise is likely just a market correction. OG will undoubtedly miss games. Still, Anunoby averaged 2.7 shares with a pair of 3s and decent shooting in 23 games with the Knicks — pretty handy.

Bogdan Bogdanovic -SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks

Total ADP: 92.8 vs. last seven days: 86.1

Net change +6.7

The Serbian guard missed the Hawks’ pre-season match on Tuesday to rest after a long summer at the Olympic Games in Paris. Bogdanović is healthy, and like Anunoby, I expect his ADP to continue to evolve as a market calibration. Last season, Bogdanović provided value in the sixth round (63rd overall) while primarily coming off the bench. Dejounte Murray is gone, so he’s in pole position to start at SG. Taking advantage of that opportunity will positively impact Bogdanović’s fantasy stock.

It helps that Bogdanović played well as a starter in 33 games last year, averaging 17.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.9 3s and 1.0 steals per game in 34 minutes. His ADP should be closer to seventh round than eighth.

Collin Sexton – PG/SG, Utah Jazz

Total ADP: 105.4 vs. last seven days: 93.6

Net change: +11.8

Sexton’s jump feels like the result of an x-rank update a few days ago. His play in the two preseason games was fine, but nothing special. The good news is that he has started in both exhibitions, and Sexton has been much more productive at the start than he was last year in a reserve role. His ADP is a reasonable price, but I’d be surprised if he creeps higher than the eighth round.

Amen Thompson – SG/SF, Houston Rockets

Total ADP: 120.6 vs. last seven days: 116.8

Net change: +3.8

Dillon Brooks’ first appearance has been officially announced following Amen Thompson’s preseason debut. It was clear from the start that Thompson certainly looked like a player who should play in the first unit. The Rockets played at a dizzying pace and Thompson was one of the main reasons. He picked up the pace in transition, getting to the basket at will and finishing with 13 points (6-8 FG, 1-1 FT) with three boards, one assist and two steals.

I try not to react too much to a ball in pre-season, but this is one of those moments where the eye test is too obvious. Thompson’s athleticism, defense and feel for the game increased in his second season. It’s only a matter of time before he closes the gap on SF minutes. Thompson’s current ADP is modest, so he could be one of the first steals of the draft season.

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Biggest decliners

Mark Williams – C, Charlotte Hornets

Total ADP: 88.9 vs. last seven days: 97.5

Net change: -8.6

Williams sprained a tendon in his left foot and will be out for at least two weeks. Considering what happened last season with his back issues, it’s understandable that Williams’ ADP is slipping. Being hurt before the season starts is not a problem. Hopefully we’ll hear some positive developments as we get closer to the season, but the injury profile justifies the dip.

Kawhi Leonard – SG/SF/PF, Los Angeles Clippers

Total ADP: 40.3 vs. last seven days: 45.2

Net change: -4.9

We can’t be surprised to see Kawhi’s ADP move south after learning he had offseason knee surgery. He’s taking it one day at a time, and while he says he’s feeling good, fantasy basketball managers are right to be wary of selecting him before the fourth round. I’d like to take him in the fifth round, if not sooner, and it’s going to be too difficult to select Leonard with so many other healthy players on the board.

Devin Vassell – SG/SF, San Antonio Spurs

Total ADP: 77.9 vs. last seven days: 84.1

Net change: -6.2

Interestingly, Spurs call Vassell’s foot injury ‘rare’; that’s definitely a word that makes me think. However, the third-year wing has practiced on a limited basis, which is encouraging for Vassell’s fantasy prospects. He’ll be re-evaluated in early November, so he’s on pace to miss at least five games to start the year. That’s not an excessive amount of missed time, so if Vassell falls a lap or two below ADP, I’d draft him on the upside.