Expert picks, the best bets on a busy fight weekend in PFL, Bellator and UFC

Fight fans are in for a triple action as UFC, Bellator and PFL take their acts to the road this weekend.

The PFL goes first as their regular season is in full swing with the lightweights and light heavyweights on the marquee at the Jon M. Huntsman Center in Salt Lake City on Friday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with preliminaries at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN+).

On Saturday, Bellator MMA takes over as their Champions Series heads to the 3Arena in Dublin, Ireland (Noon ET on Max). In the main event, Jason Jackson defends his welterweight title against Ramazan Kuramagomedov.

Also on Saturday, the UFC lands in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia with an 11-fight card featuring a former champion and multiple title contenders (3 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+, with prelims at noon on ESPN/ESPN+). The main event will see former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker take on Ikram Aliskerov, who fills in at short notice for Khamzat Chimaev, who was forced to withdraw due to illness.

Andreas Hale spoke with MMA coach and ESPN MMA analyst Din Thomas to get his take on the Bellator title fight and UFC main event in Riyadh this weekend. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds his insights and analysis on the two big fights and other intriguing bets he’s watching throughout the weekend.

Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

UFC Saudi Arabia Main Event: Middleweight: Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov

Din Thomas, MMA coach and ESPN MMA analyst

How Whittaker wins: Using his legs. That means he will have to use his foot speed and his kicks to stay ahead of Aliskerov. Additionally, Whittaker must rely on his five-round fighting experience. He has that advantage over Aliskerov and a clear speed advantage. It will be Whittaker’s speed, using his kicking and experience, that should carry him to victory.

How Aliskerov wins: For Aliskerov, it is his power. He hits very hard. We know Whittaker can get cut sometimes. We’ve seen him get clipped before, so Aliskerov has to try to find that shot that breaks through. We know it is durable and has good strength. The way he wins this fight is by trying to keep Whittaker in front of him and land a big shot. If not to knock him out, then at least to stun him enough that it could change the course of the fight and then put together a finishing combination.

X Factor: Whittaker’s mentality in this fight. Whittaker is an extremely intelligent fighter. He’s very cerebral. And when you deal with fighters like that, they have to have the right mentality. It seems like Whittaker hasn’t always had the right attitude in certain fights. He could let this one of his go if he doesn’t have the right mentality. But based on everything I’ve heard in his interviews, I think he’s in the right mindset.

Prediction: Whittaker wins by decision.

Parker’s gambling analysis

Whittaker wins (-155). Whittaker must avoid Aliskerov’s power and control the pace of the fight. Whittaker has trained for a five-round fight against a monster, while his opponent has trained for a three-round fight. As dangerous as Aliskerov is, he has only beaten guys like Phil Hawes and Warley Alves, who are not in the top 15. Aliskerov is also good at wrestling, but nothing Whittaker hasn’t seen before. On these odds, though, give me “Bobby Knuckles.” If you think Whittaker is a risky play but can avoid the knockout loss, take the 2.5-plus rounds.

Bellator Welterweight Title Fight: Jason Jackson vs. Ramazan Kuramagomedov

How Jackson wins: I’ve seen Jackson grow since the amateurs. I remember him in his first few fights coming up and he called himself “The Ass Kicking Machine” and he has always been one of the most talented, physically gifted and best fighters around. If you talk to the people in the gym (Kill Cliff FC), he is the best welterweight in the world. And I fully believe that. So to win this fight he has to be physical, athletic and do damage. He just needs to keep moving and deal as much damage as possible to avoid getting into Kuramagomedov’s fighting systems.

How Kuramagomedov wins: It’s skilled and smooth, but it never seems to get out of third gear. So if he wants to win this fight, he has to be able to keep it at his pace. He needs to be able to get into his system. He’s going to have to get some takedowns and just control the pace of this fight.

X Factor: Kuramagomedov’s strength and ability to fake takedowns. His power is good when he throws with aggression, but he doesn’t do it enough from a striking perspective. He’s more dangerous when he feigns a takedown, then comes back up and starts punching. Kuramagomedov can catch Jackson with a punch if he makes Jackson think about wrestling. Jackson might eat one from which he can’t recover. But Jackson may be too physical and frustrate Kuramagomedov by preventing him from getting too close to attempt one of those takedowns.

Prediction: Jackson wins by decision.

Parker’s gambling analysis

Jackson to win. Getting Jackson at -200 (via ESPN BET) is a steal. His opponent may be a great wrestler and grappler, but he hasn’t fought a top-20 fighter in Bellator and he’s not something Jackson hasn’t seen or trained with. Look for Jackson to keep this fight going and dominate from bell to bell. I believe Jackson is an underrated welterweight and will get a chance to showcase his skills this week in Ireland.

Parker’s best bets for this weekend

PFL Lightweight: Clay Collard vs. Mads Burnell

Collard to win. Burnell will have a big task. Not only is Collard a handful, but for Burnell to reach the playoffs, he needs to finish Collard in the first round. To be fair to Burnell, I don’t see that happening. We saw Burnell get involved in a high profile brawl in his last fight that is not his style. Normally he’s a ground specialist, and if he doesn’t take Collard down, expect Collard to get his way and ultimately KO Burnell.

PFL Light Heavyweight: Impa Kasanganay vs. Jacob Nedoh

Kasanganay wins by KO/TKO. After an impressive knockout win over Alex Polizzi, last season’s champion Kasanganay looks to score another fast finish and cement his top status heading into the play-offs. His opponent, Nedoh, needs a first-round finish to have a chance at the playoffs. Once Nedoh tries to finish, look for Kasanganay to take over and make sure this fight is done in the distance.

Bellator Lightweight: Paul Hughes vs. Bobby King

Hughes to win within the distance. This looks to be a showcase fight for blue chip prospect Hughes. Hughes is currently a heavy favorite and should have no problem getting King out of there before the final bell rings. Hughes is well rounded with a finishing percentage of 68% and I expect that percentage to rise even further with another dominant win here.

UFC Heavyweight: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov

Pavlovich wins (-220). Volkov is on a three-fight win streak. With a potential win over Pavlovich, Volkov could be in talks to become a title contender soon. However, that will be much easier said than done as Pavlovich has a Sambo background with great takedown defense and is easily one of the most powerful KO artists in MMA history. Unless Volkov can take Pavlovich out of the first round and wear him down, I don’t see where or how he wins this fight.