England vs Slovakia – what Southgate’s side can expect from their Euro 2024 last 16 opposition

At first glance, Gareth Southgate and England appear to have won the major tournament’s knockout lottery (again). In leading group C they avoid Spain, Portugal, France, Belgium and host country Germany.

Realistically, Slovakia have not faced the same level of opposition that England have faced in three major tournament rounds of 16 under Southgate: then African champions Senegal in the 2022 World Cup, Germany in the 2020 Euros, Colombia in the 2018 World Cup.

Slovakia have equaled their best ever European Championship finish (round of 16 at Euro 2016) and by qualifying as a third-place team they are easily written off.

But without falling too far into the cliché that there is no such thing as an easy knockout match, there are three reasons why Slovakia could cause England in particular trouble when they meet on Sunday.

Firstly, they showed that they can pull off a surprise by beating Belgium 1-0 on the first matchday. “I try to impose on the team the mentality of playing all matches openly, regardless of the qualities of the opponent,” Italian coach Francesco Calzona said in qualifying. Their two qualifying defeats against Portugal were both by marginal goals.

If England have questions about their midfield selection, Slovakia does not. Stanislav Lobotka is the deepest of the trio, with Ondrej Duda (who played at the 2010 World Cup) and Juraj Kucka in more advanced positions. It’s a well-balanced central midfield, with No. 8s advancing aggressively from a central block, late-emerging goal threats (particularly Duda) and an anchor (Lobotoka) who likes to stitch attacks together and play under pressure.

Expect a 4-3-3 attacking shape with shades of 2022-2023 Napoli in the way they combine wide and use up-back-through patterns to release midfielders. Out of possession they like to get into a 4-1-4-1 and push a number 8 forward to put pressure on the centre-backs.

They were the oldest team in qualifying and are also the oldest team at the tournament. Calzona has built his team on a strong foundation, not only tactically but especially in terms of experience in the backbone of the team.

“Putting together 25 to 30 players from at least eleven or twelve different championships with different roles and mentalities was the hardest part,” Calzona said during qualifying. “It was very difficult to get them all to think along the same lines, in a short time. But we always play to win.”

Left centre-back Milan Skriniar is a regular at Paris Saint-Germain, capable of one-on-one aerial duels. He can be expected to trouble England number 9 Harry Kane and defend strongly. To Skriniar’s left is Feyenoord’s David Hancko, a club-level centre-back who is deployed as a wing-back by Calzona. Obviously his strengths are defensive, but he has a fantastic cross on him.

Newcastle United’s Martin Dubravka is between the posts. He can look shaky on the ball, partly because Calzona likes him to take up aggressive positions to lure the press, with Slovakia often building up through patterns to link the midfielders with full-backs.

Especially against Belgium, Dubravka’s distribution was erratic and the English press should focus on him. But as a shot-stopper, Dubravka is solid and a fundamental reason why Slovakia is so watertight: he has conceded less than one goal per game in 16 caps under Calzona, with zero in half of those games, including two of the three group games. -stage games.

As relieved as England may be to avoid big hitters, there is plenty to be unhappy about if they encounter another compact mid/low block (like Slovenia), especially now that England have yet to solve their attacking problems on the left. England and Slovakia even had the lowest expected number of goals of all teams to qualify. There’s every reason to expect another low-shot special from Southgate.

Look for Slovakia in most team style stats and they come out remarkably average. It can be seen as a team lacking real tactical superpowers, highlighting the lack of a No. 9 goalscorer, but also reflecting how Calzona has raised the floor and eliminated any significant weaknesses.

For a team with limited open play output, they maximise set-piece situations to good effect. Slovakia scored regularly from corners in qualifying (see goals against Bosnia and Herzegovina, Liechtenstein, Iceland). There is also a threat from long shots that must be respected, with only France (seven) scoring more than five goals from outside the penalty area in qualifying.

Those who haven’t been keeping a close eye on Slovak football (shame on you) may be disappointed to see Marek Hamsik’s absence – at least on the pitch. He retired internationally in May 2022, although he was called up last summer due to injuries. Now he is part of the technical staff of Calzona (also at Napoli).

Ivan Schranz and Lukas Haraslin are the attackers to watch. Right winger Schranz scored both of Slovakia’s goals this European Championship: against Belgium, an angled half-volley on the rebound, after Slovakia forced a high turnover from a Belgian throw close to its own goal. He opened the scoring in their 2–1 defeat to Ukraine. Slovakia made a long throw, then went short and Haraslin sent a cross at the back post for Schranz – the first Slovak with multiple major tournament goals.

Slovakia strikes first in Düsseldorf! 👊

Ivan Schranz makes it two goals in two games 2️⃣⚽#BBCEuros #Euro2024 #SVKUKR pic.twitter.com/sUpvHCBML1

— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) June 21, 2024

Haraslin is a right-footer who plays on the left, quite enigmatic and the type of winger who can ghost a period of matches before coming alive with a dribble and winning the match. If England dominate possession as expected, they will leave space for Schranz and Haraslin in transition, with Slovakia particularly effective in breaking through the third midfield retake – England’s counter-pressing will have to be perfect.

Calzona is certainly more of an in-game tactician than Southgate. If the build-up of Slovakia does not work or if the pressure is gone, they will not continue with this for too long. He let Dubravka start for a long time against Belgium, when Slovakia could not find a way through the press.

England and Slovakia have a great tournament history, the last meeting taking place in 2016. That was the last group stage match managed by someone not named Gareth Southgate: Roy Hodgon’s England drew 0-0. If Southgate wants to crown his English legacy with silverware, there won’t be many more favorable routes to the final. But first he must negotiate a tactical banana peel.

(Photo: Stu Forster/Getty Images)