Eagles say they didn’t lose because of Saquon Barkley’s drop. Analytics back that up more than you might think

PHILADELPHIA — Jalen Hurts wasted no time clearing the air.

The Philadelphia Eagles quarterback spoke directly to his running back late Monday night, sharing the message with reporters. Hurts was disappointed in the 22-21 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, to be sure. But he didn’t want to project that disappointment onto Saquon Barkley after Barkley’s late-game drop.

“We just didn’t make the play at that point,” Hurts said. “I trust him at all times. He’s a great player. He gave us a big spark in those moments.

“It just wasn’t for us tonight. … We’ll be better for it.”

The drop that hung in the air at Lincoln Financial Field needn’t define the Eagles’ season. By some advanced analysis, it wasn’t even the headliner of the loss that dropped Philadelphia to 1-1.

Let’s take a closer look.

After Falcons running back Bijan Robinson failed to convert on fourth-and-1 from Atlanta’s 39-yard line, the Eagles got the ball back and led 18-15 with 5:38 to play.

Their chance of winning, according to NFL Next Gen Stats’ winning probability model: 86 percent.

While the Eagles covered 29 yards thanks to 26 yards from six touches by Barkley, the odds remained in their favor.

Then Philadelphia faced third-and-3. Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore watched as the Falcons defense began to stack the box. So Philadelphia didn’t deviate from their best player, but the team trusted him to move from left to right and then roll to his right for a catch.

Hurts’ pass hit both of Barkley’s hands before the running back lost it. Philadelphia settled for a field goal.

“Make that catch, the game’s over,” Barkley said afterward. “I dropped the ball. I let my team down today. Shouldn’t have put the defense in that position.”

Barkley’s responsibility wasn’t surprising. The New York Giants’ second-overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft modeled responsibility for the better part of six seasons with his current division rival.

And yet, while Barkley dropped the pass, did he really drop the ball in the game? His teammates and coaches say he didn’t — and there’s data to back them up.

Win probability models are just one metric to measure the impact of a play on the outcome of the game. The surprisingly minimal impact that Barkley’s drop had on the results reflects how much more had to go wrong for Philadelphia to ultimately lose.

The Eagles had a 99% chance of winning before the drop, according to Next Gen Stats’ model, and a 94% chance after the third-and-3 whiff. When Eagles kicker Jake Elliott connected on a field goal to extend Philadelphia’s lead from 3 to 6 with 1:42 to play, their algorithmic success rate was still 85%.

A 70-yard Falcons drive with just 65 seconds left snuffed out that chance. Falcons safety Jessie Bates III’s interception of Hurts with 27 seconds left sealed it.

“We will all get back things that we want,” Sirianni said. “We are all responsible for this loss.”

For 2 weeks, Barkley validates Eagles’ lucrative investment

Barkley assured Hurts he would be better after the drop.

“I can sit here and complain and be angry, or I can be a professional athlete and go back to the drawing board,” Barkley said. “I’ve made that play multiple times. I’ve missed that play before.

“I have to make a man of it, admit what I’m doing, and I can promise the guys in the locker room that I’ll be better.”

Barkley is already exceeding expectations after Philadelphia signed him via free agency in March.

Financial trends in the NFL have been less focused on placing high values ​​on running backs, particularly in terms of second contracts. This is partly due to concerns about the durability of veteran running backs and partly due to a belief that schematic creativity and investment in the offensive line can compensate for top running back talent.

In other words, some teams looking to save money somewhere think running back is the safest option.

If a few good players can combine to produce 60% of what a great player could be for 10% of the money, then many NFL teams will make that trade-off.

The Eagles bucked that trend when they signed Barkley to a three-year, $37.75 million contract with $26 million in guarantees, effectively giving him $13 million each this year and next.

Barkley’s guarantees rank third at the position and his annual average value ranks fourth.

He validates that investment for two weeks.

After averaging 88.7 scrimmage yards per game in 14 games with the Giants last season, Barkley is averaging 124 yards per game after two weeks with the Eagles. That’s his best performance since 2018, when he averaged 126.75 yards per game as a rookie.

Barkley’s 102 rushing yards per game surpasses his previous best by 20 yards and his 2023 production of 33.3 per game. And while two weeks is a small sample size, his production is against apparent playoff contenders like the Falcons and Green Bay Packers.

Only Alvin Kamara scored more touchdowns than Barkley’s three.

And Barkley’s 52 touches, a league-high, have drawn Hurts’ attention away from his defensive work, and he’s also back to showing the escapism that helped the Eagles to their NFC title campaign two seasons ago.

Hurts’ 85 rushing yards Monday night topped any of his games from last season, and his 6.5 yards per attempt also topped any of his 2023 marks. The duo works well together.

“Some things come on when they need to, and that came on,” Hurts said of his run production. “It clearly wasn’t enough to get the win.”

Philadelphia will need a lot more firepower on Sunday when it visits the 2-0 New Orleans Saints, whose scorching 91 points through two weeks is 21 more than the second-place Arizona Cardinals. Hurts and Barkley will have to shoulder the load, as they did Monday night, with receiver AJ Brown battling a hamstring injury.

Their teammates expect that, even on the next opportunity to score a first down at the end of the game.

“We know he’s going to make these plays (and) he knows he’s going to make these plays,” veteran defensive end Brandon Graham said of Barkley. “We all trust each other out there. We just let it slip today. It sucks, but it’s a good lesson for us. … As a good team, we’ve got to make sure we don’t let opportunities slip away because that’s what happens — you get beat.

“We’ve also been on the other side of the spectrum, coming back because of other people’s mistakes.”