Donald Trump’s chances of winning a popular vote, according to odds and polls

With just a month to go until the election, polls show Kamala Harris winning the popular vote by a wide margin.

In 36 years, only one Republican candidate has won the popular vote, when George Bush won by two points.

Polls currently show that Trump is unlikely to break that trend, but with the former president now ahead in the polls, it is not impossible that he continues to follow in Bush’s footsteps.

Not a single poll shows Trump in the lead. Nate Silver’s model shows he has a 24 percent chance of winning the popular vote, compared to Harris’s 76 percent, with the pollster predicting the former president will get 48 percent of the vote, compared to Harris’ 51 percent Harris. That’s down from early this week, when Harris’ electoral college probability was 75 percent, while Trump’s was 25 percent.

Meanwhile, online betting platform Polymarket shows that Trump’s chances of winning the electoral college have risen from 27 percent on October 13 to 36 percent, while Harris’s have fallen from 71 percent to 63 percent.

It comes amid a positive month for Trump in the polls. A new Fox News poll conducted between October 11 and 14 among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters found Trump leading Harris by 2 points among registered and likely voters, from 50 percent to her 48 percent, which is within margin of the poll falls. of errors, a four-point swing since Harris led Trump by two points a month ago.

Additional. The latest ActiVote poll, conducted from October 3 to 8, showed Donald Trump with a 1.2-point lead nationally with a 3 percent margin of error. That came after an ActiVote poll in September gave Kamala Harris a 5.4-point lead.

Trump has also seen positive signs in swing states. The RealClearPolitics poll showed last week that Michigan favored Trump for the first time since July 29. Nevada and Pennsylvania have also become Republican.

And in FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, Trump’s vote share has risen in Arizona, from 1.1 points at the start of the month to 1.6 points, and in Georgia, from 1.1 points to 1.7 points. Harris’ vote share has declined marginally in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. In North Carolina, Trump’s vote share fell marginally from 0.7 points to 0.5 points.

Meanwhile, pollster Nate Silver’s forecast last week showed 19 states flipped in the former president’s favor.

Nevertheless, polls remain tight, especially in key swing states where candidates are separated by just one or two points. On Wednesday, Silver’s prediction showed that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris now have nearly identical chances of winning in November, with Harris at 50.1 percent and Trump at 49.7 percent. The shift follows a six-point decline in Harris’ odds of winning since late September as Trump gains momentum in 19 states, according to Silver’s analysis.

“The forecast is razor thin,” Silver noted. “With recent polls showing a dead heat in the Midwest battlegrounds, it is now essentially a 50/50 race.”

FiveThirtyEight’s tracker shows Harris currently 2.4 points ahead of Trump nationally, while Silver’s tracker shows her 2.8 points ahead.

Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment.