Does Norris have a chance of winning the 2024 Formula 1 title?

Lando Norris’ final margin over Max Verstappen was a massive 22.896 seconds as the chequered flag waved smoothly at the conclusion of the Dutch Grand Prix.

It was now the biggest win gap of the season so far – almost half a second larger than Verstappen’s lead over Sergio Perez at the opening race in Bahrain. It is also the most convincing victory since Verstappen’s triumph at Hungary 2023, a 33-second gap that separated him and Norris more than a year ago.

To further his point, Norris managed to set the fastest lap of the race, cutting eight points off his championship deficit to Verstappen. There are “only” 70 points between them, which is somewhere between a gap and a ravine to overcome in the final nine races of the title fight.

No one has managed to reduce such a large championship lead in such a relatively short time. It’s not that it’s mathematically impossible, of course, but it would be a highly unlikely comeback and would probably be an even bigger shock than the announcement of Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari.

But does Norris have a chance of achieving such improbable odds? With apologies to Ian Betteridge and his law of headlines, the answer is yes – accompanied only by a “but.”

Poleman Lando Norris, McLaren F1 Team, debriefing with Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

The permutations are as follows: Norris’ engineer Will Joseph, in his pleas to his driver to let Piastri through at the Hungarian Grand Prix, stated that Norris “would need the team” to help him with his title plans – that he could not hope to win it on his own. And that assertion would be correct; Norris does indeed need Piastri to help him with any hope of a title win in 2024. McLaren needs Piastri to start acting as a Verstappen-focused disruptor in the majority of the coming races, as his presence in the top three is a prerequisite for Norris to close that 70-point gap.

Norris could win all nine races left on the calendar and still not have enough in the bank if Verstappen finishes second in all nine. Assuming neither driver sets a fastest lap, Norris would end up with 450 points as his final tally, seven behind Verstappen. With eight or nine fastest laps, Norris could close the gap, but this assumption is on shaky ground. Would Red Bull blink if it had to overtake Perez and sacrifice track position to take the fastest lap point? Absolutely not; Red Bull usually considers the second car redundant in such cases…

In that case, Piastri needs to be between Norris and Verstappen at least three times for the “win it all” strategy to count. And if Norris has an off-weekend and finishes second “only” once, Piastri needs to “interlope” at least two or three more times to make the difference.

It’s also in Norris’ own hands. If he doesn’t win another race this year and theoretically finishes second in every race from now until Abu Dhabi, Verstappen can’t finish higher than fifth to ensure Norris wins the title. Even if Red Bull has lost its lead, it hasn’t fallen back so far that even podium finishes are out of reach.

And of course you can’t rely on the other teams. Mercedes and Ferrari remain competitive and will likely have events where they are closer to McLaren and Red Bull than others. They will have their own periods of overlap between Norris and Verstappen, as they did in the first phase of the season, and so McLaren will have to limit their influence on their own results.

Of course, it would be enough for McLaren to let them influence Red Bull, but leaving things to chance is not going to guarantee McLaren and Norris a title. To some extent, the Woking team has its championship fortunes in its own hands, it has a car that can legitimately beat Red Bull on pace, and the drivers to do so.

Poleman Lando Norris, McLaren F1 Team, celebrates in Parc Ferme

Photo by: Andrew Ferraro / Motorsport Images

Norris proved at Zandvoort that he didn’t need perfection to win races, as another clutch fumble at the first corner was of little consequence. Instead, a diligent bout of early race management and foresight into Verstappen’s relative pace meant that the overtaking opportunity was thankfully timed well before the round of pit stops. While it didn’t completely end Norris’ current starting malaise, it did at least take the pressure off. Starts don’t seem so important when you know you can do it later.

Even if Norris is the epitome of perfection and wins every race between now and Christmas, he cannot win the title unless Verstappen and Red Bull endure a series of spectacular blunders that erode the points difference. McLaren must ensure both drivers reach the heights made possible by their vastly improved cars and are not afraid to make tough decisions when the situation demands it.

As Joseph told Norris at the Hungaroring with five rounds to go: “The way to win a championship is not alone. You need Oscar and you need the team.”

Could that be the mantra McLaren is uniting behind in its quest to secure an earlier-than-expected championship victory? It’s certainly fitting, and it shows a parity between teammates that Red Bull can’t hope to match. And when push comes to shove, it could make all the difference. Yes – with a but: Piastri’s involvement is the caveat.