Divided ranks: Ja’Marr Chase vs. Justin Jefferson debate for 2024 fantasy football

The dilemma that dynasty managers face in every startup draft has now taken center stage in redraft season: Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson? The two former LSU teammates are bonafide stars. These exceptionally talented players have combined for five top-5 fantasy WR finishes, with Jefferson slated as the overall WR1 in 2022. They are the definition of elite Alpha WRs: high-target earners who can take over a game and single-handedly win your fantasy week.

They’re also neck-and-neck in ADP this season, often back-to-back in the early to mid first round. With an industry telling us the value gap between these two receivers is essentially negligible going into this season, we’ve enlisted Theo Gremminger and Adam Ronis to break the virtual tie. Gremminger thinks the Bengals wideout is the cat, while Ronis feels like Minnesota’s go-to guy. And for good measure, Vikings writer Alec Lewis and Bengals writer Paul Dehner weigh in with their opinions on the receivers they cover. Read the cases below and declare your winner in the comments section.

Gremminger puts his chips in for Ja’Marr Chase:

Ja’Marr Chase is available to drafters in the mid-first round. When drafting WRs in this range, we look for league-winning upside and the ability to produce a WR1 overall season. The WR1 overall (Cooper Kupp ’21, Jefferson ’22, CeeDee Lamb ’23) has led the NFL in targets and catches for three straight seasons. Incredible target volume has been a primary driver of league-winning production at the position. It’s easy to imagine Chase seeing that target total this season. With Jefferson, it’s a bit of a bigger jump because of Minnesota’s question marks at QB. In the last 10 years, only three rookie QBs have completed 550+ pass attempts. When Jefferson finished as the WR1 overall, Kirk Cousins ​​had 661 pass attempts. It’s hard to imagine the Vikings being as pass-happy with JJ McCarthy (with some starts by Sam Darnold) behind center. This transitional year for the QB likely diminishes Jefferson’s overall potential.

On the other hand, with Joe Burrow returning from injury, Chase is poised for the most targets of his career. The Bengals lost Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. Expect Cincinnati to lean on Chase early and often. The 24-year-old Chase had a career-high 145 targets and 100 catches last season, and he was on track for even more before Burrow was lost for the year.

Chase ranked eighth in red zone targets, a number that could increase with personnel changes. He’ll also benefit from increased slot usage. Chase has never had a slot percentage higher than 25.8%, and playing him there will create advantageous matchups and more opportunities for easy looks. Last year, Lamb played in the slot 51.3% of the time, and Kupp was even higher at 55.3%. Giving a dynamic playmaker like Chase (ranked seventh in YAC in 2023) more easy looks further increases his fantasy upside and prospects.

Draft Justin Jefferson… in 2025. This season, if you’re picking in the middle of the first round, there’s no higher upside selection than Ja’Marr Chase. The stars are aligning for a WR1 season.

Paul Dehner says“Ja’Marr Chase won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2021 and already holds the franchise record for receiving yards in a season and a game. Yet it feels like the Bengals are still in the process of setting up a career year for him. Through his first three seasons, Chase has thrived on his football soulmate connection in Joe Burrow. While his usage and implementation has grown each season, his ability to truly unleash his versatility as a weapon has been hampered in part by the people around him. By replacing more static weapons like tight end, slot receiver, and running back with players with multiple skill sets, they can design more explosive plays for Chase from a variety of formations, locations, and motions. If new offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher designs it right, that career year could be happening.”

There’s an obvious reason why Justin Jefferson isn’t coming off the board as the No. 1 wide receiver: his quarterback. If Kirk Cousins ​​were still at Minnesota, Jefferson would likely be the best receiver drafted.

Sure, there are questions about Vikings quarterbacks Sam Darnold and rookie JJ McCarthy. But we’ve already seen Jefferson play with Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall over the final four games of 2023, and he’s had at least 10 targets in each game, scoring 15.4, 26.1, 10.9, and 36 points respectively in PPR formats.

Even in the nine games without Cousins ​​last season, the Vikings led the way in passing yards. Jefferson averaged 10 targets per game, racking up 1,074 yards in just 10 games, and half of those games were without Cousins. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell has shown that he will find ways to get the ball to Jefferson, regardless of who is at quarterback. Both quarterbacks will pass the ball to Jefferson.

Ja’Marr Chase now has the better quarterback situation. Still, we can’t ignore Joe Burrow’s inability to stay healthy. He played 10 games last season and suffered a season-ending wrist injury. After Burrow went down in Week 11, Chase averaged 11.7 points in PPR formats and scored one touchdown.

Burrow has dealt with a few injuries in his career, including two last season. Chase will lead the Bengals in targets, but Tee Higgins will reduce his targets. Jefferson has less competition, and TJ Hockenson will miss time with a torn ACL. Jefferson has had a target share of 29.9%, 29.3%, and 27.2% over the past three seasons, respectively.

Jefferson has finished as a Top 5 receiver in three of the past four seasons. Chase has done so once in three seasons. While Jefferson may not end up as the overall No. 1 receiver, he will finish ahead of Chase.

Alec Lewis says“Kevin O’Connell took over as head coach of the Vikings in 2022, and Justin Jefferson’s production since then has been almost laughable. He led the league in receptions and receiving yards in O’Connell’s first season at the helm, and Jefferson could have matched that success in 2023 had he not pulled a hamstring. He’s not part of Minnesota’s offense. He is the offense, the first read in virtually all of the Vikings’ passing concepts. As long as Sam Darnold can play serviceably, Jefferson should be poised for as effective a season as he’s ever had, especially considering the Vikings could be without tight end TJ Hockenson (and potentially Jordan Addison) to start the season.”

(Top photo of Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson: Kareem Elgazzar, Matt Krohn-USA TODAY)