Diamondbacks are putting the heat on not just the Dodgers, but the entire NL

The Diamondbacks enter this weekend having completed a three-game sweep of the Rockies on Wednesday for their ninth consecutive series victory, the latest standout showing in a nearly three-month run of excellence. The surge has vaulted the defending National League champs into an unfamiliar position in the NL postseason picture: with a comfortable cushion alongside San Diego atop the NL wild-card standings, and within striking distance of the perennial powerhouse Dodgers atop the division.

Since the start of June, no team in baseball entering Friday has a better record than Arizona’s mark of 44-21.

Arizona’s tremendous summer form has been a welcome sight after its uninspiring first two months left many wondering if its surprise run to the World Series last October and subsequent active offseason were misleading depictions of a team on the rise. But the D-backs have now banked multiple months of high-level performance, proving themselves as a legitimate contender fueled by an excellent offense and a pitching staff whose effectiveness has finally started to reflect its talent level in recent weeks.

This recent run of Snakes success also represents a stark contrast to last year’s eventual pennant winners, who traversed a markedly different path over the course of the regular season. To wit: this week’s sweep of Colorado escalated Arizona’s season record to a sterling 69-53, just 2.5 games behind the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. The last time the D-backs were 16 games over .500 was when they were 50-34 on July 2, 2023 and, believe it or not, three games ahead of L.A. atop the NL West. Last year’s team hit its stride far earlier in the summer before a tumultuous second-half necessitated a desperate late push to even reach the postseason.

With this year’s team peaking much later and over a longer period of time, a trip to October appears far more certain than it did at practically any point during last year’s regular season. Per FanGraphs, Arizona’s odds of reaching the postseason currently sit at 93%. The 2023 D-backs’ playoff odds did not surpass 90% likelihood until after their 158th game of the season. With images of last year’s magical pennant run still fresh in our collective minds, and a reinforced roster that looks more formidable on paper than it did a year ago, the D-backs will not be sneaking up on anybody this time around.

But just how good are they? What has gone according to plan and what have they had to overcome to get to this point? With 40 games left in the regular season, let’s take stock in this year’s Snakes and what has propelled them into such a promising position.

What’s different about this version of the D’backs?

The obvious place to start: The Snakes rake. Plain and simple.

They rank second in batting average (.261), second in on-base percentage (.333) and fourth in slugging percentage (.434), and are averaging 5.28 runs per game, No. 1 in MLB. Despite a reputation for running wild on the bases earned during last year’s playoff run, the D-backs haven’t racked up the steals to the same staggering degree this year, with 82 in 122 contests. But Arizona still rates as one of the most impactful baserunning teams in the league for its stolen base efficiency and proclivity to take the extra base, underscoring the well-rounded nature of its offensive attack in 2024.

The run production has been fueled first and foremost by switch-hitting second baseman Ketel Marte. It seemed unlikely we’d ever see Marte rediscover the slugging heights of his 2019 campaign (32 HR) when he was one of several hitters across the league who enjoyed a sudden power surge due at least in part to a livelier baseball. Sure enough, Marte has indeed found another gear in his age-30 season: he ranks top-5 in the NL in both fWAR (5.1) and wRC+ (151), and could set a career-high in home runs before September arrives (he’s already at 30). While his MLB-record 20-game hit streak last October certainly helped raise his national profile, he’s still woefully underrated and is a legitimate NL MVP candidate, especially if the D-backs chase down the Dodgers. A minor ankle injury has kept him out in recent days, but he should be back in the lineup soon.

Less surprising than Marte’s MVP push has been the continued steady presence of first baseman Christian Walker, whose production over the past three seasons has been about as consistent as you’ll find from any player across the league:

2022: .242/.327/.477, 122 wRC+
2023: .258/.333/.497, 119 wRC+
2024: .254/.338/.476, 123 wRC+

There’s definite comfort in being able to pencil in such steady production when projecting a season, and Walker is the epitome of that. He’s currently out with an oblique strain suffered in late July, but while there’s never a good time to lose one of your best players, Arizona lucked out that Walker’s injury occurred just before the trade deadline, enabling a swift replacement in the form of switch-hitter Josh Bell, who has filled in brilliantly (.967 OPS in 13 games).

Bell is the latest veteran slugger to bring a new element to this D-backs lineup, joining designated hitter Joc Pederson and third baseman Eugenio Suárez as fresh faces who weren’t a part of last year’s team. Though he’s been heavily platooned, Pederson has been tremendous: outstanding batted ball data and a career high-OBP are driving a 158 wRC+ that ranks 10th among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. Suarez isn’t quite the middle-of-the-order force he used to be, but he has still been a substantial upgrade over what Arizona had at the hot corner a year ago when D-backs third basemen ranked 26th collectively in fWAR. This year, with Suárez playing nearly every day, they rank 15th. Suárez also still has a penchant for good ol’ fashioned RBI: no player in baseball has driven in more runs since the start of July than Suárez’s 37 in 38 games.

The most notable development on offense for Arizona recently has been the emergence — or perhaps more accurately, re-emergence — of outfielder Jake McCarthy. His .769 OPS and elite baserunning earned him a fourth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2022, but his bat took a serious nosedive as a sophomore (.644 OPS). He was still expected to be on Arizona’s postseason roster as an extra outfielder before he strained his oblique during batting practice just before the wild-card series in Milwaukee, eliminating his chance to contribute during the team’s run to the World Series.

Entering 2024, McCarthy projected as a useful fourth outfielder. Corbin Carroll was entrenched as a budding superstar, Alek Thomas — another speedy lefty-hitting outfielder — had seemingly secured the everyday center-field job, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was back in left field after re-signing as a free agent over the winter. But Thomas’ injuries and underperformance opened the door for more consistent playing time for McCarthy, and he has looked increasingly more like his rookie self as of late. Since June 1, his .913 OPS ranks eighth among outfielders, and over the past three weeks, he has been one of the best hitters in baseball. Having primarily occupied right field and rarely started against left-handers over the first few months, McCarthy’s fantastic recent form now has him playing nearly every day in center field, even against southpaws. While his sky-high BABIP and free-swinging approach portends some regression in the near future, McCarthy’s contact ability and exceptional speed combined with solid center field defense ensures his status as a key cog in Arizona’s position player group moving forward.

Most intriguing regarding McCarthy’s stellar production is how it contrasts to the rest of Arizona’s outfield group. While veteran addition Randal Grichuk has also performed admirably (113 wRC+) in a platoon role, the familiar starting trio of Gurriel Jr., Thomas and Carroll have been a different story. That Thomas has struggled mightily is disappointing in relation to his standout contributions last October, but his prior regular-season track record suggested his offensive potential was always going to be limited. Carroll and Gurriel Jr., though — both All-Stars a year ago — had far more expected of them.

Outside of June (.907 OPS), this is the least productive version we’ve seen of Gurriel in his career. His 38.4% hard-hit rate is a stark departure from the 46.3% he posted over his first six seasons, and his already-shaky on-base skills have regressed even further as only four qualified hitters draw walks more infrequently as Gurriel has this year. He’s still hitting lefties well and playing decent defense in left field, so it’d be a stretch to call him a definitive sore spot on the roster. But for a player whom Arizona committed $42 million over three years to retain last winter, it’d be fair to call his performance something of a letdown.

While Gurriel is virtually the only D-backs hitter who hasn’t been scorching hot over the past month, Carroll has finally started to show signs of life recently after a dismally disappointing first few months of his sophomore season. Early season battles with his swing setup and mechanics took a while to work through, as the reigning NL Rookie of the Year’s OPS was a meager .608 as late as July 6 with just two home runs over his first 87 games. He has picked it up considerably since then, hitting .250/.347/.602 with nine homers over his past 31 contests. Credit to the rest of the D-backs’ lineup for keeping the offense humming while the young outfield was scuffling, but it’s no secret that the best version of Arizona’s team features a star-level Carroll shining as its dynamic leadoff hitter. If Carroll has indeed rediscovered his best self, the ceiling for this lineup might be even higher than we realized.

Will Arizona’s pitching come around when it matters most?

In addition to the top-tier run production, Arizona has also been one of baseball’s best defensive teams. The D’backs have committed the fewest errors, surrendered the second-fewest stolen bases and rank third in Statcast’s Outs Above Average. This has been another crucial component of their success because for all that has gone right on the position player side of things, the performance on the mound has been much more of a mixed bag.

Arizona was aggressive this past winter in pursuing rotation upgrades, securing Eduardo Rodriguez with an $80 million deal in December before landing another veteran lefty in Jordan Montgomery just before Opening Day. Montgomery has been downright bad, with a 6.25 ERA that ranks 121st out of 122 pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched, a far cry from the dependable workhorse he’d proven to be in recent regular seasons, let alone the postseason ace we watched last October.

E-Rod made his long-awaited D-backs debut last week after missing the first four months due to a shoulder injury, so we haven’t really seen him settle in yet. Mainstays Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly have each been hampered by injuries. Kelly only just returned from a three-month IL stint due to a shoulder injury, while Gallen, whose hamstring issues have limited his innings, has been generally good, but nothing close to the pitcher who finished top-5 in NL Cy Young voting in the past two seasons. Brandon Pfaadt has pitched like a solid mid-rotation starter, but leads the team in innings by nearly 30 frames due to the instability in the rotation surrounding him. Righty Ryne Nelson, 26, is actually second on the team in innings, and has looked much better as of late (5.69 ERA through the end of June, 2.90 ERA since the start of July).

All of this combined points to perhaps the most fascinating — and important — storyline to watch for Arizona in the coming weeks: what will this rotation look like come October? Will Montgomery make the roster? Will E-Rod emerge as the ace the D-backs paid for? Will Gallen start looking like a Cy Young contender at some point? Who is going to be healthy by the fall? These are all pertinent questions for this unit to answer in due time.

The bullpen has had its fair share of drama as well. Acquired from Seattle at last year’s trade deadline, right-hander Paul Sewald was a huge part of Arizona’s success last October and was primed to headline the bullpen again in 2024. After missing all of April with an oblique strain, Sewald was excellent for two months upon return, allowing just one run over his first 18 outings and converting all 11 save opportunities that arose. Then came a nightmare July in which he allowed 12 runs on 18 hits across 12 appearances, prompting manager Torey Lovullo to pull the plug on Sewald as the no-doubt-about-it closer and explore other options.

Lovullo first turned to side-winder Ryan Thompson and lefty strikeout artist A.J. Puk for the first handful of save chances post-Sewald demotion, but has since landed on 23-year-old rookie fire-baller Justin Martinez as the go-to option to lock down the ninth. While his shaky command makes him liable to issue a few ill-fated free passes at times, Martinez has been roughly elite at everything else as a rookie, racking up strikeouts and ground balls at exceptionally high rates thanks to a trio of sensational offerings: a 100 mph sinker complemented by a hard slider and a wicked splitter. He’s the real deal.

Along with holdovers Thompson (2.17 ERA) and Kevin Ginkel (2.87 ERA), Martinez’s breakout has helped ensure a level of competency in close contests that helped compensate for a rotation that has severely underperformed for significant portions of the season. Add in the deadline additions of Puk and veteran Dylan Floro, and Lovullo suddenly has a wealth of strong options to turn to late in games, especially if they can get Sewald back on track. Even with Sewald’s recent struggles and a handful of bullpen blowups earlier this season, Arizona remarkably boasts baseball’s best record in one-run games at 24-12. In some cases — last year’s Marlins, for example had an MLB-best 33-14 record in one-run games but also a -57 run differential — a gaudy record in close games can distort a team’s true quality. However, the D-backs’ +77 run differential suggests they haven’t merely banked a bunch of fortunate wins in narrow fashion, but have also won their fair share of blowouts as well to indicate a more legitimate level of strength. And though the bullpen performance hasn’t always been pretty, they’ve slammed the door more often than not when called upon.

On the whole, Arizona’s pitching staff has improved to the point where it can better support an offense that was previously being asked to do far too much, and its monthly ERA ranks reflect that:

March/April: 4.04 ERA (18th)
May: 4.79 (30th)
June: 5.26 (28th)
July: 3.93 (ninth)
August: 4.08 (15th)

No longer does the offense need to score a boatload of runs to feel comfortable about hanging on for a win. While the lineup remains the team’s biggest strength, the men on the mound have started to pull their weight, resulting in the Snakes’ recent surge up the standings.

A nine-game, three-city road trip commences Friday for the D-backs, as they head east to take on Tampa Bay, Miami and Boston over the next 10 days. It won’t get much easier from there, as the D-backs’ remaining strength of schedule grades out as notably tougher than that of their division rivals in San Diego or Los Angeles, leaving precious little margin for error if they want to secure home field to open the postseason, whether it be as the division winner or top NL wild-card team. For now, though, the Snakes are thriving. They have shed their scrappy underdog label, and should be considered accordingly — regardless of what happens next.