Cowboys’ trading interests were already risky. With Dak Prescott’s injury, their argument is even weaker

Over the past three years, the Dallas Cowboys have fallen short of expectations.

They would get through the regular season and then bow out early in the playoffs, unable to hold their own against the most talented and well-coached teams.

Then came this season.

Suddenly, the 12-5 record the Cowboys achieved every year from 2021 to 2023 looks different.

Because when November starts, the Cowboys already have those five losses. And this time they are joined by just three wins.

“We have to win a game,” head coach Mike McCarthy said after a 27-21 loss at the Atlanta Falcons. “We have five defeats. I clearly understand where that takes us.”

The flaws that dug this Cowboys hole vary.

There’s the worst game Dallas has played this week, averaging just 74.1 yards per game and 3.41 per carry.

There’s the second-worst time of possession and second-worst red zone success rate the offense has posted through eight weeks, each arguably also related to Dallas’ non-existent run game.

The Cowboys defense lost its top two edge rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence to injuries a month ago, contributing to the Cowboys’ worst red zone defense and second-worst points per game through the first eight weeks .

And while the Week 9 rankings require all games to be completed, the repeated pre-snap penalties that hurt the Cowboys against the Falcons have become the rule rather than the exception.

Oh, and quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a hamstring injury that is expected to sideline him for several weeks.

All this would cause many team decision makers to think critically about their investment in 2024. Of course, teams should and will try to win in most situations. But taking out a mortgage for future years, when the current season has already gotten so far out of control, is a risky endeavor.

So when team owner Jerry Jones tried to sell hope in the aftermath of Cowboys-Falcons, Jones made many of his pleas for positivity while also deliberately dropping that the Cowboys could make moves before the NFL’s trade deadline Tuesday.

His suggestion raises questions.

“We’ll probably do a few things this week,” Jones told reporters outside the locker room after the game. “If things go the way we want for us.”

An appropriate caveat.

Is a trade realistic given the Cowboys prospects?

The Cowboys have clear areas of need, from the offensive line to running back to virtually every defensive position, including perhaps coordinator. Receiver depth could help CeeDee Lamb.

Kicker Brandon Aubrey is the only outstanding player they are using this year.

But as McCarthy’s contract expires after nine games and injuries continue to mount, the Cowboys have to ask themselves: Why are they considering a trade?

Are they acting to improve the roster for 2024? Are they acting to improve the team in the coming years? Is there just a deal that is so cost-effective that they can’t pass it up? Or are they acting to keep fans engaged this season?

All four justifications are difficult to defend.

If the Cowboys are trading to help a 2024 roster that has suffered injuries to its top two players on offense and three top players on defense, the decision seems shortsighted. At 3-5, the Cowboys have a 4 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff forecaster. Competing against the 7-2 Washington Commanders and 6-2 Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys’ chance of winning the NFC East is less than 1 percent. This franchise has reached the playoffs each of the last three years. Just a playoff berth, which Dallas seems unlikely to win, doesn’t support development costs.

What if the Cowboys have the opportunity to acquire a player who can fill a position of need for years to come? Dallas is expected to receive compensatory draft picks after losing several players in free agency this year – why not use them? This argument would be easier to make if the coaching staff were likely to return in 2025. But the Cowboys’ performance this season doesn’t argue for an extension for McCarthy. Six months into defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s tenure, Dallas’ defensive problems on Sunday ranged from missed tackles to blown coverages to players running into each other and ten men on the field for an early third down. Zimmer’s status in 2025 is up for debate.

With the Cowboys likely to face a new coaching staff next season, it’s risky to project talent acquisitions for an unknown scheme.

And the chances of getting a cost-effective player at the trade deadline are slim. Sure, some teams try to play the compensatory pick system. But more often than not, teams overpay through free agency and at the trade deadline to help their team develop or compete. The Cowboys don’t fit either box.

Which brings us to the final reason why Jones would argue for a trade: fan interest.

“It takes two to tango, but we have some things in the mill,” said Jones, the ultimate salesman. “We are always going to do everything we can to improve this team and in our opinion we will do that if what you have to give up helps to improve the team.

“We’re going for it.”

Determining the severity of Dak’s injury is the next step for the Cowboys

Jones joined several players who said they were confident Dallas would beat Atlanta entering the Falcons game. The Cowboys felt they matched up well in this NFC matchup. They ultimately led for only four minutes and eleven seconds, all in the first quarter.

Dallas completed just 22% of third and fourth down attempts (4 of 18). The team’s only touchdowns came on a relatively lucky bobble catch and a near-nonsense time.

Hope was not enough to beat a well-planned, talented team.

“I truly regret this for all of our Dallas Cowboys fans,” Jones said. “Personally, I am far from dismayed about our team, about this year. Not dismayed. I’m worried.

“Should be worried.”

The main reason for the Cowboys concern is Prescott’s health. Prescott battled the Falcons four times, including for a 22-yard gain that marked the Cowboys’ longest rush of the season.

The last of his four scrambles, a 5-yard gain, was called back for a holding penalty. That hasn’t stopped Prescott from hurting his hamstring in what he believes was the tackle of that fight. He felt it tighten up after that late third-quarter run, but initially dismissed it as discomfort that comes with a physical game.

Then, on a stop route, Prescott reached the top of his drop and “felt a pull… something I had never felt before. At that time it is difficult to walk on it.

He asked to keep playing if further injuries weren’t a problem, but the Cowboys’ medical team told him he wouldn’t be able to protect himself.

“When we get a picture of it, we’ll know how bad it is,” Prescott said Sunday. “It’s going to take a lot before I’m not there anymore.”

That decision is now beyond his control.

Cooper Rush again showed his steady attitude as a backup, completing 13 of 25 passes for 115 yards and the late touchdown after Prescott’s 18-of-24 mark for 133 yards and a score.

But the Cowboys would have a hard time making the playoffs with a healthy Prescott, Lamb, Parsons, Lawrence and cornerback DaRon Bland. Knowing that each of them is dealing with injuries should deter activity around trade deadlines.

Regardless, expect McCarthy to coach for the remainder of his contract. Jones claimed he believed in McCarthy before answering questions Sunday afternoon. When asked, he reiterated his belief.

“I know how hard he works, I like his football mentality,” Jones said. “He has, in my opinion, an excellent coaching record. He is really good with the players. They think highly of him. He’s got a lot of fire in his belly. So I’ll just give you this. I like the positives I see.

“I’m good with Mike.”