Could Walker Buehler be Brave’s next reclamation project?

Now that it’s been confirmed that Spencer Strider won’t be ready for Opening Day, and it could be much longer after suffering a torn UCL in April, starting pitching has become a priority for the Braves this offseason. Max Fried will also test free agency, and Charlie Morton’s future is also unknown. Even if Morton decides to play another season, there is no guarantee it will be with the Braves.

However, Atlanta’s rotation still isn’t in a terrible spot. Chris Sale is coming off a season in which he won the NL Triple Crown and will soon be named the winner of the National League Cy Young Award. Reynaldo Lopez’s transition into the rotation couldn’t have gone better outside of a few IL stints, mainly due to fatigue, and Spencer Schwellenbach looks like a rising star. Assuming Spencer Strider is back at some point next season, that’s a lot of firepower, but another arm to round out the rotation with some upside could really ease any concerns heading into next season.

Fortunately, that is Alex Anthopoulos’ area of ​​expertise. No one loves betting on high upside players on short-term contracts more than the Braves general manager, and no one is better at picking winners either.

Among the prospects who fit that description is 2024 World Series champion and two-time All-Star Walker Buehler, who Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors predicts will end up with the Braves in free agency.

37. Walker Buehler: One year, $15 million

Tim: Tigers / Anthony: Guardians /Darragh: Tigers / Steve: Braves

Much of the 2024 season couldn’t have gone much worse for Buehler. The righty has looked like a shell of his former self since returning from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Buehler made 16 starts in the regular season and was tagged for a 5.38 earned run average over 75 1/3 innings. He allowed nearly two home runs per nine innings while striking out just 18.6% of batters. His swinging strike rate of 8.2% was more than three points lower than his career average.

Buehler’s fortunes changed in October. After the Padres gave him six runs in five innings in his first start, he pitched consecutive scoreless performances with eleven strikeouts over nine frames against the Mets and Yankees. With a heavily loaded Dodger bullpen in danger of running out of steam in Game 5 of the World Series, Dave Roberts called on Buehler. He pitched a perfect inning with two strikeouts and secured the title with a strikeout of Alex Verdugo.

From 2018-2022, Walker Buehler was as good as any pitcher in baseball. He was named to the NL All-Star team twice and also finished in the top 10 of the NL Cy Young voting twice.

Then Tommy John surgery hit, an all too familiar story for many of the dominant arms in the game. It ended his 2022 season and cost him the entire 2023 season. When he finally returned this year, things were a mess… until they weren’t.

Due to some of their top weapons, the Dodgers had no choice but to turn to Buehler in the postseason, who picked the perfect moment to turn back the clock. He didn’t allow a run in his last three postseason appearances, including the final three outs of Game 5 of the World Series, sealing the deal for the Dodgers over the Yankees.

The market for Walker Buehler this season will be intriguing. His track record of success, upside and postseason performance could lead to a desperate organization giving him a multi-year contract. But his best bet is probably signing a one-year deal and then re-entering the market, when the offers could be much more lucrative.

That’s something the Braves will likely be very interested in, but so will many teams, including the Dodgers. If I’m the Dodgers, who have unlimited funds, I’m not sure how I can get anyone to outbid me for one year of Walker Buehler, and if I’m Buehler, why would I want to play anywhere else?

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Photographer: Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire