College football Week 10 preview – Ohio State-Penn State gets November off to hot start

It’s officially November. College football’s greatest month is upon us and will give us five wild Saturdays, followed by the most impactful Championship Week we’ve seen in this sport.

The first November Saturday is a bit of an odd one. We start with the latest Game of the Century of the Week — Ohio State at Penn State — followed by a grab bag of upset opportunities and key ACC clashes led by the biggest SMU-Pitt game ever.

There’s a lot to track, as always. Here’s everything you need to follow for November Saturday No. 1. (All times are Eastern; lines are from ESPN BET.)

Jump to a section:
The latest Big One | Top-15 road concerns?
ACC clarity? | Big 12 business as usual?
Chaos superfecta | Week 10 playlist
Small-school showcase

The latest Big One

No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State (noon, Fox)

Penn State plays well, and Ohio State eventually wins. That’s been the predominant theme of the OSU-PSU rivalry of late. After a thrilling 24-21 Penn State win in 2016 — one that prompted a Big Ten title run in James Franklin’s third season in charge — Ohio State won the next two games by 1 point each, then won the next five by an average of 33-22.

Franklin has engineered lovely consistency with PSU. The Nittany Lions have finished in the AP top 15 five times in the past eight years, the first such run for the school since the 1990s, and if a 12-team College Football Playoff had been in existence a decade ago, they would have made it about half the time. But there’s always someone better in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions have won 27 straight regular-season games against teams not named Ohio State or Michigan but haven’t beaten either of the big dogs since 2020.

Injuries will play a major role in whether the losing streak ends. PSU quarterback Drew Allar will be a game-time decision Saturday after injuring his knee late in the first half of last week’s 28-13 win over Wisconsin. Beau Pribula played wonderfully controlled ball in Allar’s absence, going 11-for-13 for 98 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 28 yards. After a slow start, he led two length-of-the-field touchdown drives to put away a tricky game. Control did the job against the Badgers, but big plays win big games, and PSU is probably more explosive with Allar. Despite a huge number of targets going to amazing tight end Tyler Warren, he’s averaging 14.0 yards per completion this year, up from 11.3 in 2023. Receivers Harrison Wallace III, Omari Evans, Julian Fleming and Liam Clifford are averaging 17.2 yards per catch.

Ohio State’s offensive line, meanwhile, looked like a shell of its former self without left tackle Josh Simmons, who was lost for the season with a knee injury. In a trying 21-17 win over Nebraska last week, the Buckeyes had one of their worst rushing games of the past decade.

Here’s visual proof: Ohio State’s (non-sack) rushing stats for every game since the start of 2015, with success rate* (efficiency) on the X-axis and yards per successful play (explosiveness) on the Y-axis.

(*Success rate: How frequently you’re gaining at least 50% of necessary yardage on first downs, 70% on second downs or 100% on third and fourth.)

New Ohio State left tackle Zen Michalski struggled, then also got hurt. He’s questionable for Saturday. Not including sacks, the Buckeyes averaged a season-low 2.6 yards per carry against the Huskers. Now, Nebraska’s run defense is quite solid, but Penn State’s is dynamite: second in rushing success rate allowed, 14th in yards per carry (no sacks). Tom Allen’s defense has played against only one top-30 offense, per SP+ — USC’s — and the Trojans scored 30 points with Woody Marks rushing for 111 yards (5.6 per carry). But 49 of those yards came on two second-quarter carries, and after their first three possessions, the Trojans scored only one TD. Also: Another one of those dots in the lower left-hand corner of that chart above comes from last year’s OSU-PSU game.

The Buckeyes had to rely on a huge game from receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (162 yards and a touchdown) and their own incredible defense — Penn State had 167 total yards until the final drive of the game — to win 20-12 in 2023. If they can’t get the run going, either quarterback Will Howard needs his best performance in a Buckeye uniform or the Ohio State defense needs another huge game. That’s not out of the question.

In the last biggest game of Howard’s Buckeyes tenure, against Oregon, he was really good until the very end. He completed 28 of 35 passes for 326 yards and two scores and scored a rushing touchdown to boot, but a brain fart ruined his evening: On the final play, he scrambled downfield and slid as time expired, ending any hope of a last-second field goal.

Freshman Jeremiah Smith is slowly taking over as Howard’s No. 1 target. In the past two games, he caught 12 of 17 passes for 170 yards and two scores, while slot man Emeka Egbuka played a safer role, catching 13 of 16 for 113. Carnell Tate had catches of 40 and 37 yards against Nebraska — he’s emerging as an interesting downfield weapon too.

TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins remain a dynamite rushing duo for OSU, but there might not be a ton of holes for them, and Howard might not have a ton of time to pass against a PSU pass rush that should remain strong even if injured end Dani Dennis-Sutton can’t play. Whatever opportunities Smith, Egbuka and Tate get, they better take full advantage. (And since they’re awesome, they might do just that.)

Current line: Buckeyes -3.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 1.5 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 4.1

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Potential top-15 road concerns

Penn State-Ohio State will obviously suck up a lot of oxygen, but four top-15 teams, listed in order from smallest spread to largest, are leaving home and facing games that aren’t total slam dunks.

No. 10 Texas A&M at South Carolina (7:30 p.m., ABC, ESPN+)

South Carolina does one thing well. But the Gamecocks are unbelievable at that one thing. They rank 103rd in offensive success rate and don’t make up for that with a lot of big plays. Their run defense is solid but inefficient (87th in rushing success rate allowed). Special teams are pretty mediocre too.

But damn, can they rush the passer.

Thanks primarily to the duo of Kyle Kennard (23 pressures, 8.5 sacks) and Dylan Stewart (18 pressures, 4.5 sacks), the Gamecocks currently rank second in sack rate and first in sack rate on passing downs. And when the quarterback starts making shaky decisions, safeties Nick Emmanwori and DQ Smith swarm. Texas A&M comes to Columbia brimming with confidence, but the Gamecocks are an incredibly unique test.

Of course, Texas A&M is pretty unusual too. The Aggies defense ranks seventh in success rate allowed and dominates in the turnovers department, and the offense proved it can provide drastically different looks if needed — if quarterback Conner Weigman can’t beat you with the pass, they can double down on the run with Marcel Reed, as they did against LSU last week. Considering the Gamecocks’ strength, it feels like Reed might see plenty of action.

Current line: A&M -2 (down from -3.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: A&M by 6.2 | FPI projection: A&M by 1.4

No. 13 Indiana at Michigan State (3:30 p.m., Peacock)

Michigan State has pulled a couple of big surprises this year, scoring 10 late points in a comeback win over Maryland in Week 2, then scoring eight times on Iowa — granted, six were field goals — in a 32-20 upset of the Hawkeyes. The Spartans are inconsistent but occasionally dangerous.

Indiana, meanwhile, has been the story of 2024. The Hoosiers are 8-0; projected 81st in SP+, they’re now up to 13th and even overachieved against projections last week without injured quarterback Kurtis Rourke. With the offense doing very little with Tayven Jackson at QB — he completed a 42-yard touchdown pass to Omar Cooper Jr. and otherwise gained 82 yards in 18 passes — the defense stepped up by forcing two turnovers and two turnovers on downs to power a 31-17 win.

Rourke might be able to return in this one. Regardless, I’m not going to start doubting the Hoosiers until they give me a reason to.

Current line: Indiana -8 (up from -7) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 16.8 | FPI projection: Indiana by 14.4

No. 1 Oregon at Michigan (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Michigan rallied to beat Michigan State last week, and while the Wolverines’ 5-3 record is terrible for a defending national champ, it’s decent considering the team’s defensive injuries (star corner Will Johnson is questionable) and total lack of a passing game (130th in yards per dropback).

Oregon ranks just 58th in rushing success rate allowed, and Michigan will try to define the game with ball control and physicality. Of course, there’s no Plan B. Oregon ranks sixth in offensive success rate, combining a “ball never hits the ground” passing game with a super-efficient run game. And I mean super efficient: Among RBs with at least 120 carries, Jordan James has by far the best success rate in the country.

Oregon stars tight end Terrance Ferguson and defensive end Jordan Burch are getting healthier, and the Ducks have been dynamite on the road. They will likely get Michigan’s best swing of the season; we’ll see how much it connects.

Current line: Oregon -14.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 12.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 11.3

No. 2 Georgia vs. Florida (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)

Two weeks ago, Georgia thumped top-ranked Texas, and Kirby Smart dared anyone to doubt his Dawgs ever again. Now they go to Jacksonville to face a Florida team they’ve dominated of late. They will likely win comfortably, especially with Florida’s secondary banged up and UGA star guard Tate Ratledge likely returning. But two acknowledgments:

1. Florida is quite solid. The 4-3 Gators have beaten every opponent ranked outside the SP+ top 15, and with freshman quarterback DJ Lagway taking over, they almost won at Tennessee and walloped Kentucky with their best offensive performance of the season. Of course, their next four opponents are all 12th or better in SP+, so bowl eligibility is far from assured.

2. Georgia has still spent much of 2024 plodding along. The Dawgs barely beat 3-5 Kentucky and let 1-7 Mississippi State stay within 10 points. Smart has mostly mastered the art of knowing exactly when to shift his team into gear, but anytime it isn’t in gear, it is vulnerable.

Current line: Georgia -16.5 | SP+ projection: Georgia by 12.5 | FPI projection: Georgia by 12.5

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A shot at clarity in the ACC

Miami is unbeaten, and Clemson is unbeaten against teams not named Georgia. The Hurricanes and Tigers appear to be the class of the ACC, but Pitt and SMU are making things awkward. The unbeaten Panthers are the most surprising team this side of Bloomington, Indiana, and while the Mustangs lost to BYU in nonconference play, they have a path to an unbeaten ACC record that doesn’t include playing Miami or Clemson. Somehow the messy spirit of the ACC Coastal lives on, even though we killed off ACC divisions.

Pitt plays SMU in what may be the most consequential game of the week outside of OSU-PSU; if Pitt wins, then the winner of Week 12’s Pitt-Clemson game becomes the ACC’s default co-fave with Miami. If SMU wins — or Clemson or Miami fall in an upset this week — then things only get messier.

No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU (8 p.m., ACCN)

No one can say Pitt isn’t resourceful. Pat Narduzzi’s Panthers have won games by scores of 38-34 and 17-15, and last week they pulled one of the more remarkable feats of 2024, beating Syracuse 41-13 while gaining just 217 total yards. It’s amazing what three first-half pick-sixes can do for a team.

SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings committed five turnovers of his own last week, so maybe Pitt can follow a similar recipe Saturday night. But the Mustangs will be easily the best team the Panthers have faced in 2024. They’re 17th in SP+ and proved their well-roundedness by beating Duke in overtime despite Jennings’ turnovers, shutting down Duke’s run game, averaging 48 yards per punt and blocking a potential game-winning field goal. Pitt’s offense is much better than Duke’s even with Eli Holstein struggling for a couple of games and getting hurt last week. (He’s been cleared to play Saturday.) Running back Desmond Reid is phenomenal, and receiver Konata Mumpfield is a big-play threat. Jennings, meanwhile, is questionable due to a leg injury.

Pitt’s schedule ramps up considerably in November; we’ll see if this delightful turnaround story can continue.

Current line: SMU -7.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 4.9 | FPI projection: SMU by 7.7

Louisville at No. 11 Clemson (7:30 p.m., ESPN)

Louisville has defined itself pretty well this season, going 0-3 against SP+ top-20 teams (losing to each by one score) and 5-0 against everyone else. The Cardinals’ comeback win over Boston College last week kept their meager ACC title hopes alive, but their primary role in 2024 seems to be as a stiff challenge for a contender to overcome. This week, they should help us answer a key question: Is Clemson’s defense good?

Clemson still has standouts at each level — end T.J. Parker, linebacker Wade Woodaz, corner Avieon Terrell — but the Tigers are just 48th in points allowed per drive and 57th in yards allowed per play despite facing only one top-50 offense, per SP+. Louisville is 19th in offensive SP+ and boasts quite a few explosive options. The Cardinals will need to score quite a bit to keep up with what Cade Klubnik and an increasingly healthy Clemson receiving corps will likely do to their defense. But if Clemson’s defense is indeed wobbly, Louisville is more than capable of landing quite a few blows.

Current line: Clemson -10.5 (down from -11.5) | SP+ projection: Clemson by 7.9 | FPI projection: Clemson by 6.4

Duke at No. 5 Miami (noon, ABC/ESPN+)

It’s strength vs. strength and weakness vs. (relative) weakness at Hard Rock Stadium! Heisman contender Cam Ward and Miami’s offense have torched some solid defenses this season, but Duke has the best (20th in defensive SP+) and most active defense the Hurricanes will have faced.

Duke nearly beat SMU on turnovers alone last week, and Ward isn’t above putting the ball at risk at times. But if the Blue Devils can’t create opportunities via turnovers or sacks, it’s hard to see even Miami’s defense — which did play pretty well last week against another moribund offense (Florida State’s) and ranks 31st in defensive SP+ despite midseason struggles — facing too much adversity. Duke ranks 110th in points per drive and 116th in yards per play. The Blue Devils did manage to top 20 points in all three games against top-40 defenses, but Miami hasn’t scored fewer than 36 points in a game all season.

Current line: Miami -20 | SP+ projection: Miami by 18.5 | FPI projection: Miami by 20.3

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Business as usual in the Big 12?

We haven’t seen as much chaos as I would have expected from the Big 12. To be sure, the game-to-game drama has been solid — among power conferences, it only slightly trails the ACC when it comes to the percentage of games that are tight or blowouts.

Pct. of conference games decided by 1 to 8 points: ACC 53%, Big 12 49%, SEC 43%, Big Ten 34%

Pct. of conference games decided by 17+ points: Big Ten 48%, SEC 32%, Big 12 31%, ACC 29%

Still, the Big 12’s top teams stubbornly refuse to lose, and it’s creating a straightforward conference title race. BYU and Iowa State remain unbeaten, Kansas State has lost only to BYU and quickly improving Colorado has lost only to Kansas State in conference play. Frankly, it’s downright inconsiderate of these guys to not heed my calls for chaos.

With BYU and Colorado both off this week, only two favorites are in action. And one is playing a particularly volatile opponent.

Texas Tech at No. 11 Iowa State (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

Despite plenty of coaching changes and an evolutionary shift both in the Big 12 and for the sport as a whole — Iowa State and BYU are leading the conference with defense! — it’s almost comforting that Texas Tech remains Texas Tech. The Red Raiders play at one of the sport’s higher tempos, and in terms of points per drive, they rank 23rd on offense and 120th on defense. Five of their eight games have produced at least 69 combined points, and two have topped 90.

This chaotic tinge makes them an odd out, especially for an ISU team that craves control. The Cyclones avoid negative plays pretty well, and they prevent big plays and avoid penalties beautifully. On paper, they’re quite a bit better than Texas Tech, especially with the explosiveness receiver Jaylin Noel and tight end Benjamin Brahmer bring to the table. But Tech nearly won at TCU with a freshman quarterback last week, and starter Behren Morton is probable to return. One team’s better, but the other can certainly create a mess.

Current line: ISU -13.5 (down from -15.5) | SP+ projection: ISU by 13.7 | FPI projection: ISU by 13.3

No. 17 Kansas State at Houston (3:30 p.m., Fox)

Was that a sign of life from Houston last week? Or just a sign of further collapse from Utah? Both? The Cougars scored 10 points in the final 14 minutes to steal a 17-14 win over the Utes. Their defense has really only had a couple of poor games, and if they get any help from an offense that still ranks 133rd out of 134 teams in points per drive, they could become a scarier team.

We’re still in “could” or “might” territory with the Cougs, though. We know what we’re getting from Kansas State. Since self-destructing in a 38-9 loss at BYU, the Wildcats have alternated between blowouts (over Oklahoma State and West Virginia) and clutch late play (against Colorado and Kansas). Running back DJ Giddens is averaging 143 yards per game from scrimmage, and backup Dylan Edwards gained 80 yards in just five touches last week. Explosive quarterback Avery Johnson seems to be cutting the mistakes down too, and the Wildcats are well-rounded, ranking in the top 30 in offensive, defensive and special teams SP+. The defense can get hit for big plays occasionally, but the Wildcats appear likely to move to 8-1.

Current line: K-State -13.5 | SP+ projection: K-State by 19.4 | FPI projection: K-State by 15.2

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Week 10 chaos superfecta

Each week, I use SP+ win probabilities as an attempt to will chaos into existence — I look at four carefully selected games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together into a much more upset-friendly number. I thought I was a magician early in the season when we snagged at least one upset in five of the first six weeks. But the odds always catch up to you: We’ve gone upset-free for three straight weeks. We nearly got one with Nebraska against Ohio State last week. Alas.

It’s time to end the drought, and we’re going to do it in the SEC. SP+ says there’s only a 36% chance that Tennessee (85% win probability against Kentucky), Ole Miss (83% against Arkansas), Georgia (78% against Florida) and Texas A&M (65% against South Carolina) all win. Let’s take someone down!

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Week 10 playlist

Here are more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from information and entertainment perspectives. There’s no Saturday late shift because once a year we pretend that baseball is a sport and we don’t want to go up against a World Series Game 7 that ends up not actually existing. Whatever.

Friday evening

San Diego State at No. 15 Boise State (8 p.m., FS1). SDSU is starting to piece together some quality. Sean Lewis’ Aztecs have won two of three and nearly beat No. 22 Washington State last week. Their good pass defense and improving pass offense could test Boise State for a little while. (Just don’t ask about how their sketchy run defense is going to fare against Ashton Jeanty.)

Current line: BSU -23.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 21.5 | FPI projection: BSU by 26.4

Early Saturday

No. 19 Ole Miss at Arkansas (noon, ESPN). Per SP+, Ole Miss has faced only two top-50 offenses this year, so there’s context when I say the Rebels are second nationally in points allowed per drive. But that’s still some pretty hellacious improvement! We’ll see if they can control Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green, who’s coming off of his best performance in a Hogs uniform. We’ll also see if a terribly inefficient Arkansas pass defense can ever get Jaxson Dart and Ole Miss off the field.

Current line: Ole Miss -7 (up from -6) | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 14.4 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 9.5

Virginia Tech at Syracuse (noon, The CW). Slow starts in games resulted in a slow start to 2024 for Virginia Tech. But the Hokies are now 5-3, having allowed just 11.3 points per game during a three-game winning streak. Syracuse (5-2) has been a pleasant surprise this season but is coming off the cataclysmic 41-13, three-pick-six loss at Pitt. How quickly can Kyle McCord shake that off?

Current line: Hokies -4 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 6.8 | FPI projection: Hokies by 7.2

Vanderbilt at Auburn (12:45 p.m., SECN). In two games with New Mexico State against a Hugh Freeze team (Liberty in 2022, Auburn in 2023), Vandy’s Diego Pavia was 35-for-49 passing for 415 yards with six TDs, no picks, 167 non-sack rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns and a Total QBR of 94.4, which would lead the nation. Oh yeah, and he went 2-0. Auburn is 3-5 but improving. Can the Tigers prevent a Pavia trifecta?

Current line: Auburn -7 | SP+ projection: Auburn by 10.9 | FPI projection: Auburn by 4.9

Minnesota at No. 24 Illinois (noon, FS1). Since a dire loss to Iowa in Week 4, Minnesota has been pretty dang good, nearly winning at Michigan, then winning three in a row. It is trending up, and Illinois, with its two worst performances of the season coming in the past three games, might be trending down. Both of these defenses prevent big plays and force turnovers, so mistakes and disasters will probably determine this one.

Current line: Minnesota -3 (up from -1.5) | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 3.2 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 1.7

Air Force at No. 21 Army (noon, CBS). Rivalries produce unexpected results, but I’m not sure I can adequately describe how unexpected an Air Force win would be in this one. The Falcons are 1-6 with only one loss by single digits, and after finishing 45th in SP+ last season, they’re currently 123rd. They typically know how to defend against this Army attack, but (a) Army’s particularly good right now and (b) Air Force is not.

Current line: Army -22 (down from -24) | SP+ projection: Army by 30.2 | FPI projection: Army by 25.7

Saturday afternoon

UCLA at Nebraska (3:30 p.m., BTN). With one more win, Nebraska will end an incredible seven-year bowl drought. The Huskers should get it Saturday, but UCLA has found its footing of late, splitting 50-50 games with Minnesota and Rutgers after a dismal 1-4 start. NU quarterback Dylan Raiola produced a 9-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio over his first five games, but that’s flipped to 0-to-5, with nine sacks, over the past three. Now would be a good time to right the ship.

Current line: Nebraska -6 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 14.6 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 6.8

North Carolina at Florida State (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Next season has officially begun at Florida State. The Seminoles, less than 12 months removed from last season’s 13-0 start, are 1-7 this season, and the rotation is probably about to get younger and younger. UNC, meanwhile, has suddenly rediscovered its groove. The Tar Heels stopped a four-game losing streak with a blowout of Virginia and still have a 19% chance of getting to 8-4, per SP+. What a rally that would be.

Current line: UNC -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 5.1 | FPI projection: UNC by 1.1

Saturday evening

Kentucky at No. 7 Tennessee (7:45 p.m., SECN). Since upsetting Ole Miss, Kentucky has gone into a nosedive. The Wildcats collapsed late in a home loss to Vanderbilt, then got whomped by Florida and Auburn. They’re averaging 13.5 points against power conference opponents, and now they have to figure out how to score on a top-five defense. Granted, they might not have to score that much if Tennessee’s offense doesn’t start solving its issues.

Current line: Vols -16.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 16.8 | FPI projection: Vols by 20.6

TCU at Baylor (8 p.m., ESPN2). One turnaround will go into overdrive in Waco. TCU has jumped from 3-3 to 5-3 after tight wins over Utah and Texas Tech; Baylor has gone from 2-4 to 4-4 after easier wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. This should be a vintage Big 12, up-tempo, passes-and-points affair. Hell yeah.

Current line: Baylor -3 | SP+ projection: TCU by 0.3 | FPI projection: Baylor by 2.9

Arizona State at Oklahoma State (7 p.m., FS1). Arizona State went 6-18 over the past two seasons, but a win in Stillwater would make the Sun Devils 6-2 in 2024. ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt returns to action after a rib injury, but this season could still go in any direction for either the Sun Devils or 3-5 OSU. Per SP+, four of ASU’s last five games and all of OSU’s last four are projected within a touchdown. An OSU rally? A further Cowboy collapse? A run at nine wins for ASU? All are on the table.

Current line: ASU -3 (up from -1.5) | SP+ projection: OSU by 1.7 | FPI projection: OSU by 2.4

USC at Washington (7:30 p.m., BTN). USC is 4-4 but 14 points from being unbeaten. Last Friday’s pummeling of Rutgers was a nice reminder of the Trojans’ upside. Washington, also 4-4, has one of the nation’s better pass defenses, but offensive errors have held the Huskies back all season — they’re 25th in yards per play but somehow 80th in points per drive — and they’ve lost their past two games by a combined 71-33. This one could be a season-turner for both teams.

Current line: USC -2.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 1.3 | FPI projection: USC by 6.8

Wisconsin at Iowa (7:30 p.m., NBC). Some averages for you. Average score of an Iowa home game: Hawkeyes 40, Opponent 15. Average score of a Wisconsin game against the SP+ top 30 (Iowa is 18th): Opponent 36, Wisconsin 15. I’m not saying Wisconsin can’t win — the Badgers’ defense improved quite a bit in October. But trends certainly lean toward the home team.

Current line: Iowa -3 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 6.3 | FPI projection: Iowa by 3.1

Georgia Southern at South Alabama (7:30 p.m., ESPNU). This one’s an elimination game of sorts — both teams are 3-1 in Sun Belt play, but they’re the No. 4 and No. 5 conference favorites, per SP+. Georgia Southern has played its best and worst games of the season in the past two weeks, while USA has been up and down and up and down. Gio Lopez helps make the Jaguars’ offense incredibly entertaining when it shows up.

Current line: USA -6.5 | SP+ projection: USA by 9.2 | FPI projection: USA by 6.7

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

NAIA: No. 9 Northwestern (Iowa) at No. 6 Morningside (2 p.m., local streaming). Both of these teams have made three of the past six national title games — Morningside won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, while Northwestern lost in 2020 and 2023 but won in 2022 — so this is basically an NAIA helmet game. Northwestern is allowing 9.7 points per game, and Morningside is scoring 48.1. Something’s! Got! To give!

Division II: No. 10 CSU-Pueblo at No. 8 Western Colorado (3 p.m., local streaming). After two 10-win seasons in the past three years, Western Colorado is 8-0 after a big win over two-time Division II runner-up Colorado Mines last week. The Mountaineers’ reward for a big win is another big game: CSU-Pueblo was the class of the Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference in the 2010s and won the national title in 2014, and the ThunderWolves’ only 2024 loss came against Grand Valley State. No shame there.

FCS: East Tennessee State at No. 16 Mercer (3 p.m., ESPN+). The top of the FCS rankings looks pretty familiar: We’ve got three Dakotas and Montana State in the top five. But outside of that, there are loads of upstart stories. UC Davis is fourth, SE Missouri State is sixth and relative FCS newcomer Tarleton State is seventh, but SP+ identified Mercer as a team to watch weeks ago. Mike Jacobs’ Bears have won games by scores of 10-3 and 44-34, and while the defense has stopped defending recently, they got 223 rushing yards from Dwayne McGee in a comeback win over Western Carolina last week. The winner of this one becomes a conference title co-favorite at worst. It’s homecoming in Macon!