College Football Upset Picks – Week 7

Eastern Michigan

Best odds: +115 at BetMGM

People looking at the records of these two teams may wonder how the Miami RedHawks are favored considering they are 1-4 while the Eastern Michigan Eagles are 4-1. But the RedHawks have already faced Notre Dame, Northwestern and Cincinnati this season, while Washington has been the toughest opponent the Eagles have faced.

That said, both teams played UMass. EMU went on the road in the opening week and won by two touchdowns, while Miami needed overtime to beat them at home. It’s one of the reasons I think the wrong team is favored here.

Miami has lost all three road games this season, largely because it can’t run the ball efficiently. The RedHawks are averaging just three yards per carry, a big reason why they rely on their passing game.

The problem with that is that they haven’t had much success there either. Brett Gabbert is only completing half of his throws, a big reason why Miami ranks 97th in EPA/dropback and 130th in points per game.

To make matters worse, Miami could be without two starting offensive linemen this weekend. With Eastern Michigan hitting quarterback with the 32nd best sack rate in college football, that’s probably not optimal for a line that already allows their quarterback to get hit a lot.

Eastern Michigan ranks 21st in turnovers and 14th in rushing attempts per game, and Miami has allowed at least 4.2 ypc to every starting defenseman it has faced this season. The Eagles will hit the rock, control the clock and get the home win.

LSU

Best odds: +140 at BetMGM

Few things in college football are as intimidating to a visiting team as heading into Death Valley at night. The LSU Tigers are 108-15 in program history at home under the lights, with Brian Kelly having won all twelve such games in his time in Baton Rouge.

It’s a tough situation for a Mississippi Rebels team dealing with injury issues. Leading receiver Tre Harris left the South Carolina game and is questionable for the weekend. His absence would be a major blow to an offense looking to take advantage of a suspect LSU secondary.

But it’s the other side of the ball where LSU should find success. Mississippi has been fortunate to face teams with mediocre quarterback play this season, with most opponents ranking in the bottom half of EPA/dropback. But in their loss to Kentucky, the Rebels allowed Brock Vandagriff to throw for 243 yards – an eye-opener considering he had thrown for just 550 total yards in his first four games.

Garrett Nussmeier will easily be the biggest challenge this Mississippi defense has faced this season. He threw 15 touchdowns in LSU’s first five games and had more than 300 passing yards in four of his five appearances.

Mississippi has had much of its success defensively against the pass by getting to the quarterback, with a sack rate better than 10%. LSU is allowing sacks on just 1.2% of its pass plays this season, and South Carolina’s erratic pass rush managed just two in its loss to the Tigers.

The Rebels could be without edge rusher Princely Umanmielen, who is rated by PFF as the 14th best player at his position this season. Defensive tackle JJ Pegues is also questionable, potentially leaving Mississippi without half of its top defensive line.

LSU’s defense hasn’t been great, but Mississippi will find its defense exposed to an elite passing attack without the ability to generate sacks to offset issues on the back end. The Rebels have been hurt this season by holding and passing interference flags against good receivers, and cornerback Brandon Turnage has been repeatedly targeted by opposing offenses.

The Tigers are well rested after a bye, and the atmosphere will be a huge advantage for them. Take LSU to add another overnight win to its record.

South Georgia

Best odds: +105 at BetMGM

It’s easy to look at the Georgia Southern Eagles’ defensive stats and think there’s no chance the Marshall Thundering Herd won’t roll to a victory. But it’s important to remember that the Eagles have two offenses this season in Mississippi and Boise State, which seriously skews the data.

The Rebels posted more than 600 yards of total offense and were well over the score when the game was decided. And the Broncos gained 651 yards, thanks in part to Ashton Jeanty who gained 267 yards on the ground.

While their defense wasn’t the best, the Eagles weren’t as bad as it might seem at first glance. But more importantly, they managed to score points – enough to push Boise to the limit, leading 37-36 with 13:30 left in that game.

Marshall has an excellent rushing attack, but is only 64th in EPA/rush. Additionally, throwing the ball is a concern. The Thundering Herd are in the middle of the pack in EPA/dropback and are in the 100s in yards per pass, completion percentage and explosiveness.

Georgia Southern likes to throw the ball, and JC French has had good games when not playing against Power 4 teams. He leads an offense that has yet to fail in the red zone, and I expect him to find points against a Marshall defense that ranks 96th in red zone scoring defense and 95th in scoring defense.

Cornerback Jacobie Henderson has been targeted 25 times this season, allowing 19 catches for 245 yards. Quarterbacks also post a QB rating of 158.3 when targeting safety JJ Roberts. Only nine FBS teams complete more passes to wide receivers beyond the line of scrimmage per game than Georgia Southern, and I expect the Eagles to find success on the field.

Marshall has just 28 throws of more than 10 yards this season, and last week it changed quarterbacks when dual-threat Braylon Braxton took the reins. This will be his first road test, and the fourth-year junior has only had one good road test in his career despite multiple starts.

The Eagles want revenge on their rivals after letting two late touchdowns slip away a win last season. I expect this to be a shootout, and I will root for the home team with the better quarterback and something to prove.