College football preseason rankings: No. 12 Boise State tops Group of Five field

Welcome to the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff.

In anticipation of the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down to our predicted playoff field as the season approaches. The top five conference champions in the CFP selection committee’s rankings will make the playoff, with the remainder of the field rounded out by seven at-large teams.

Who will win the national championship trophy on January 20 in Atlanta?

Previous previews: No. 13-25

No. 12 Boise State

Last season in 100 words

The Broncos got off to a slow start last season. Boise State was blown out in the season opener in Washington and then lost at home to UCF. A loss in Memphis dropped the team to 2-3, and Boise State needed a late surge to get back to .500.

That late-night revival came as the team changed coaches. Andy Avalos was fired in November when the Broncos were 5-5 after a win over New Mexico. Boise State won its final two games of the season under interim coach Spencer Danielson to reach the Mountain West title game, where the Broncos defeated UNLV.

Why Boise State Can Make the Playoffs

We think the Broncos have the best chance of any Group of Five team to make the playoffs for a couple of reasons. Liberty has a good chance to go undefeated again in Conference USA, but the Flames’ blowout loss to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl last season may cause the selection committee to value the strength of the schedule more than it does in 2023.

The American Athletic Conference could also have too many contenders at the top. Teams like Memphis, Tulane and UTSA enter the season with playoff chances. But it’s easy to see the winner of the AAC going 10-2 or even 9-3 because of the level of parity at the top of the conference.

Meet Boise State. Last season was disappointing and still resulted in a Mountain West title. This year, Boise State returns all 11 starters on a defense that improved significantly over the course of the season. The offense gets a new QB in USC transfer Malachi Nelson, but the former five-star recruit should be an upgrade over Taylen Green (now at Arkansas).

The defense’s strength should be a pass rush that terrorizes opponents in the Mountain West. Pass rushers Andrew Simpson and Ahmed Hassanein combined for 19 sacks last season, while middle linebacker Marco Notarainni contributed three. Leading tackler Alexander Teubner can make plays anywhere on the field and leads the secondary.

Key player

Jeanty is the best running back casual college football fans have never heard of. After rushing for 821 yards as a freshman in 2022, Jeanty exploded for 1,347 yards and 14 TDs on just 220 carries in 2023. He’s also a key part of the passing game. Jeanty had 43 catches for 569 yards and five TDs. He’s the team’s leading returning receiver.

Jeanty is a potential first-team All-American candidate and will once again be the focal point of Boise State’s offense. If the Broncos make the playoffs and Jeanty has a good season, he’ll get some Heisman votes.

Biggest game

Last season’s game against Washington showed that Boise State still had work to do and that the Huskies were a force to be reckoned with. Avoiding another big loss to the Ducks this season is vital to Boise State’s playoff chances.

A narrow loss — let alone an upset win — would go a long way toward showing Boise State is worthy of a playoff spot, especially if Oregon is a national title contender as many expect. In the Mountain West, Boise State’s biggest game is a trip to UNLV on Oct. 26 in a rematch of last season’s title game.

Boise State is our pick to make the playoffs, largely based on the belief that the Week 2 game against Oregon won’t be a 37-point loss like it was against Washington and because of a manageable Mountain West schedule. A 12-1 season and a Mountain West title are on the table for the Broncos. And if that happens, it should be good enough to get Boise State into the College Football Playoff regardless of what any other Group of Five team does.