CNN polls: Harris has narrow leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while she and Trump remain tied in Pennsylvania

CNN
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Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a narrow lead in two of the three “blue wall” states that together represent her clearest path to an Electoral College victory over former President Donald Trump, according to new CNN polling conducted by SSRS.

In Michigan, Harris has a 48% to 43% lead over Trump among likely voters. Harris also leads Trump in Wisconsin, where 51% support her and 45% support Trump. But the race is tied in Pennsylvania (both with 48% support), the biggest electoral prize of the three states and a central part of both candidates’ hopes to win the White House. All three states broke in Trump’s favor in 2016, but President Joe Biden won them in 2020.

Of the seven states rated as tossups by CNN, Michigan and Wisconsin are the only two where the voter rolls still include Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – the former independent candidate who has suspended his bid for the presidency and thrown his support behind Trump has spoken. In Michigan, Kennedy has 3% support, and in Wisconsin he is at 1%. Support for third-party and independent candidates is generally highest in Michigan, where 6% of likely voters there say they would support a candidate other than Harris or Trump.

There is less support for independent and third-party candidates among the likely voters who express the highest motivation to vote. Among likely voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote in Michigan, 51% support Harris and 45% support Trump. In Wisconsin they split 52% Harris to 47% Trump, and in Pennsylvania they split 50% for Harris to 47% for Trump.

The overall results are nearly identical to the last round of CNN polls in these three states, conducted in late summer, when Harris led Trump 50% to 44% in Wisconsin and 48% to 43% in Michigan, with Harris and Trump were equal. 47% in Pennsylvania.

The vast majority of voters in the blue wall state have committed to their choices. Only 8% of likely voters in Pennsylvania, 7% in Michigan and 6% in Wisconsin say they haven’t made a choice or can change their mind before Election Day.

Harris is much closer to Trump on confidence in handling the economy and further ahead of him on handling democracy in both Michigan and Wisconsin, where she also has broader advantages on key issues than in Pennsylvania , differences that help explain her stronger presence in high society. Midwestern States.

Her deficit to Trump on confidence to handle the economy — an ongoing election problem and a strong Trump asset in the 2024 campaign — is more modest in those states, with just four points separating Michigan’s two and three points in Wisconsin, differences that are within the boundaries. the margin of sampling error of each poll. Harris, on the other hand, trails Trump by eight points on the Pennsylvania issue. Harris also has an eight-point lead over Trump in confidence to protect democracy in Michigan and Wisconsin, compared to a narrow four-point margin in Pennsylvania.

Voters in Michigan and Wisconsin are also likely to give Harris a relatively wide advantage in the perception that she is more honest and trustworthy: She leads Trump on this attribute by 17 points in Wisconsin and 16 points in Michigan, compared to a 7-point margin in Pennsylvania . And those voters in Michigan and Wisconsin also say that Harris is the candidate who is likely to put the country’s interests above her own: Wisconsin voters probably say that by a 10-point margin and Michigan voters probably do so by a margin of 8 points. In Pennsylvania, that’s an issue where voters are likely about evenly divided (46% Harris versus 45% Trump).

These voters in Michigan and Wisconsin are more likely than those in Pennsylvania to say Harris cares about people like them, by a nine-point difference in upper Midwestern states, compared to just a three-point difference in Pennsylvania.

In each of the three states, the percentage of likely voters who say they support Harris is higher than the percentage who say she shares their vision for the US, while Trump’s overall support is more closely aligned with his position on the issue. That could indicate that some voters are supporting Harris less out of enthusiasm for her position than out of concern about Trump’s character.

In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, a majority of voters who say leadership traits outweigh issues in their voting behavior support Harris. And in every state, roughly four in 10 of her supporters say they vote more to oppose Trump than to support her, more than the share of Trump voters who say they vote mainly against Harris.

Harris’ narrow lead in Michigan and Wisconsin is partly driven by relatively strong performances among white voters and white voters without a college degree, two groups that traditionally break Republicans. White voters in both states were almost evenly split (48% Trump versus 44% Harris in Michigan, and 48% each in Wisconsin, which has a larger white population than the other two states). Trump’s margin among white voters without a college degree in those two states lags behind his margin among the same group in Pennsylvania (Trump leads 54% to 37% in Michigan, 54% to 43% in Wisconsin and 61% to 34% in Pennsylvania) .

Harris has a larger lead among black voters in Michigan (83% Harris to 12% Trump) than in Pennsylvania (76% Harris to 21% Trump). She has significant advantages among likely voters who have a college degree in all three states (59% to 36% in Wisconsin, 56% to 36% in Michigan and 59% to 37% in Pennsylvania).

The tighter race in Pennsylvania is mirrored among urban and rural voters within the state: Harris’ lead among likely voters who say they live in an urban area in Pennsylvania (53% to 38%) is much smaller than in Michigan (61% up to 31%). %) or Wisconsin (70% to 28%), while Trump’s lead among likely rural voters is widest in the Keystone State (68% to 30%, compared with 61% to 31% in Wisconsin and 56% to 35% in Michigan).

Suburban voters, however, largely favor Harris in all three states (55% to 40% in Pennsylvania, 52% to 40% in Michigan and 51% to 45% in Wisconsin). The suburban vote represents about half of Pennsylvania’s likely voters, compared to 37% in Michigan and 28% in Wisconsin.

There are competitive Senate races in all three states over the seats Democrats are defending. The polls show all three races are close. Michigan Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers 48% to 42% among likely voters. Democratic Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania has 48% support to Republican Dave McCormick’s 45% in a race with no clear leader. And in Wisconsin, there is no clear leader in the battle for the Senate, with Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin having 49% support compared to Republican Eric Hovde’s 47%.

Compared to the southern and western battleground states, the blue wall states have less history of voting early or by mail, and only about a third or fewer voters in these three say they have already cast their ballots. In Michigan, 36% of likely voters say they voted by mail or voted early, with Wisconsin at 34% and Pennsylvania at 26%. This is the first presidential election where Michigan has offered in-person early voting, and turnout surged during the first few days of statewide early voting this weekend.

Those who say they have already cast their ballot are included in each poll’s pool of likely voters, and in all three states they fall heavily in favor of Harris (61% to 35% in Michigan, 60% to 38 % in Wisconsin and 57% to 35%). 40% in Pennsylvania). Should these numbers hold up in Pennsylvania, they would reflect a significant shift in Trump’s favor compared to mail-in votes in the 2020 election: Biden won 76% of those votes to Trump’s 23%, according to election results from the state.

Three-quarters or more of likely voters in each of the three states surveyed say they are at least somewhat confident that votes in their state will be accurately cast and counted in this year’s election. A near-universal 95% or more of Harris supporters in every state express confidence, compared to about 6 in 10 Trump supporters in each state.

Interviews were conducted online and by telephone from October 23 to 28, 2024, with registered voters, including 726 voters in Michigan, 819 in Pennsylvania and 736 in Wisconsin. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll, weighted by their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. The results among likely voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points; it is 4.8 points among likely voters in Wisconsin.