Chelsea need transfers out for PSR purposes – but who does it make most sense to sell?

The days are ticking down towards June 30, which means Chelsea’s repeated insistence that they do not need to sell players by the 2023-24 accounting deadline to remain compliant with the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability regulations (PSR) will be put to the test.

Many respected football finance analysts believe otherwise. Based on his examination of the club’s published 2022-23 accounts, Swiss Ramble projected that Chelsea need to generate a PSR profit of £36million ($46m) in their 2023-24 accounts to avoid losing more than the Premier League’s maximum allowable loss of £105m over a three-year monitoring period.

There is always a possibility that Clearlake Capital and Todd Boehly have found another creative accounting workaround, as they did in banking £76.5million profit for effectively selling the two hotels outside Stamford Bridge to themselves in 2022-23.

But assuming that player sales will be the primary driver of Chelsea’s ongoing PSR compliance, it is likely they have more work to do before June 30. This is the case even after recouping £55million from Mason Mount’s move to Manchester United last summer, £28million for turning Lewis Hall’s loan at Newcastle into a sale and agreeing a fee just over £35million to send Ian Maatsen to Aston Villa this month.

The easiest way for any club to dig themselves out of a PSR hole is to sell homegrown players, who count as pure profit on the books. Chelsea have already been active in this regard, and have several more options within their ranks to generate significant further transfer revenue — as well as other players who would command real interest.

However, financial compliance is not the only consideration. What do the players in question mean for the squad dynamic and its tactical balance, not to mention the relationship between the club and their match-going supporters? And what might be the opportunity cost of selling them now?

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He led Chelsea’s entire first-team squad in minutes (4,061) played across all competitions in the 2023-24 season, many of those while wearing the captain’s armband. Cole Palmer was the undisputed player of the season at Stamford Bridge, but Gallagher had a strong claim to be the runner-up for that particular honour.

Supporters love him and every coach he has ever worked with trusts him. Mauricio Pochettino pointedly called him “priceless”; Chelsea’s valuation is at least £50million and it is very conceivable they could get offers in that range this summer, with Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur among Gallagher’s most notable admirers.

Gallagher’s contract expires in 12 months and there is no indication of movement towards an extension. He wants to stay at Chelsea but if the club decide they would rather have the profit than the player, the time to cash in is now — though he has considerable leverage after a career-best season and cannot be sold against his wishes.

Completing any deal before July 1 looks particularly difficult because Gallagher is focused on helping England at Euro 2024.

Emotion: A group of Chelsea season ticket holders have begun making and selling T-shirts with the message, “IF THEY SELL CONOR, WE RIOT!!”

Things are unlikely to go that far, but it is easy to imagine the atmosphere at Stamford Bridge growing more toxic early next season if the club are seen as having pushed out a homegrown fan favourite.

PSR: Of the players that Chelsea would realistically consider selling, Gallagher is the one who would bring in the biggest fee. As he is homegrown, every penny of that £50million or more would help offset the transfer spending that Clearlake and Boehly have overseen or the spending they plan to do after July 1.

Tactical importance: That is less clear. Pochettino viewed Gallagher as indispensable, deploying him as a pressing No 10, a box-to-box No 8, a dynamic No 6 and even starting from the left flank. New head coach Enzo Maresca has a different system and style of play that could shift the existing squad hierarchy.

Opportunity cost: Gallagher has proved himself a better, more versatile player than some within Chelsea believed him to be. How much more improvement is in him? At the very least, he could be a very helpful player to an elite squad who happens to have an ironclad allegiance to his boyhood club and a model professional attitude. That is not lightly discarded.

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No academy graduate on Chelsea’s books is more coveted than Colwill, who spurned serious interest from Liverpool and Brighton & Hove Albion to sign a long-term contract last summer.

Given his age and prized profile as a ball-playing left-sided centre-back, the 21-year-old could fetch closer to £100million than £50million on the open market. But that is precisely why Chelsea consider him untouchable, and there is no longer any noise about his future lying away from Stamford Bridge.

Despite his absence from Gareth Southgate’s final squad for Euro 2024 after a club season disrupted by injury and extended deployments at left-back, Colwill is expected to blossom into England’s best centre-back in the coming years and his prominence on the pitch at Chelsea should reflect that sooner rather than later.

Emotion: Colwill has not had as much time to build a connection with match-going Chelsea fans as Gallagher or Reece James, but he is viewed as an elite Cobham talent and a possible future club captain. Leaving before that potential can be fulfilled would sting.

PSR: Given his reputation within the wider game, Colwill could command a fee of as much as £100million if Chelsea were inclined to make him available.

Tactical importance: Maresca wants his centre-backs to be comfortable playing around and through opposition pressure as well as defending high up the pitch. Colwill is not the only good option at his disposal, but he ticks all of those boxes.

Opportunity cost: Whatever price Chelsea could get for Colwill might be rendered scant consolation for the player he becomes in his prime years. They are well aware of that, which is why he is not for sale.

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The last 12 months have been deeply frustrating for Broja, and unhelpful to his transfer value. He was denied the regular minutes at Chelsea to rediscover his best rhythm after an anterior cruciate ligament injury. Broja then decided to join Fulham on loan in January 2024 just as Rodrigo Muniz suddenly morphed into one of the Premier League’s most dangerous strikers.

Broja is now hoping to make a mark for Albania at Euro 2024, and Chelsea hope he does so too. Their valuation of £35million seems optimistic in light of the year the 22-year-old has endured, but it reflects their belief that many clubs in England and Europe will find his physical and technical attributes attractive.

In an interview with The Athletic this month, Broja indicated he would also be interested in a fresh start. “Nothing has been decided yet, but if I need to go somewhere else to get back in my groove, then I would want to do that,” he said.

Emotion: There were more than a few frustrated groans around Stamford Bridge at the sight of Broja’s struggles in the first half of last season, even as many recognise he is still working his way back from a serious injury. A sale would likely be forgiven because there is little confidence he will develop into an elite No 9, or even a striker on par with Tammy Abraham.

PSR: Chelsea hope to net as much as £35million for Broja, but might need to settle for less if they are truly motivated to sell him this summer.

Tactical importance: Nicolas Jackson is the first-choice No 9 at Stamford Bridge after a largely promising debut season, and Chelsea are exploring their options to sign another striker with the skill set that Maresca requires.

Opportunity cost: Chelsea’s owners and decision-makers were enthusiastic about Broja’s potential in 2022 when they tied him to a six-year contract. There is a chance that he could still become an elite No 9 one day, but that appears to be a risk they are willing to take.

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Trevoh Chalobah

Chelsea were open to selling Chalobah within months of signing him to a six-year contract extension in November 2022, and are assessing his market again this summer.

Tosin Adarabioyo’s arrival on a free transfer makes Chalobah even more expendable, but his return to Chelsea’s starting XI in the final weeks of last season coincided with the team’s strong finish under Pochettino. He believes he belongs at this level and is prepared to compete for his place in the team.

That makes selling Chalobah far from straightforward. He rejected a move to Nottingham Forest last summer because he had no interest in signing up for a Premier League relegation battle, and if he does have to leave Chelsea, it would ideally be to join a club of similar stature. With four years left on his deal, he has no incentive to look elsewhere.

Emotion: Chalobah is well-liked by many supporters, another Cobham success story who grew up dreaming of playing for Chelsea. He carries that deep connection onto the pitch.

PSR: The £25million offer Chelsea accepted from Nottingham Forest last summer might prove to be on the high side for Chalobah in this window, particularly if he is selective about the clubs he would consider joining.

Tactical importance: Chelsea have options they like in all the positions that Chalobah plays but the fact that he can do a solid job at centre-back, right-back or defensive midfield is useful.

Opportunity cost: There is no expectation that Chalobah, now 24, will blossom into a world-class centre-back elsewhere. But he is a solid squad option who cost nothing to acquire and, if allowed to stay, could be part of a homegrown core that maintains a consistent culture and standard at Chelsea for years to come.

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Though not a Cobham graduate, the cost to prise Hutchinson from London rivals Arsenal in the summer of 2022 was so negligible that a significant sale this summer would yield a big profit — even with Arsenal entitled to a percentage of any future fee.

His stock is high, too, having played a key role in Ipswich Town’s promotion from the Championship. They have already enquired about signing him permanently, but other clubs in the Premier League and across Europe have also been in touch.

Hutchinson has one guaranteed year remaining on his contract, with Chelsea holding an option for a further 12 months. Now is the optimal time to sell or extend him.

Emotion: Despite making two first-team appearances for Chelsea, Hutchinson has not been involved enough at Stamford Bridge for his potential departure to hurt much.

PSR: Hutchinson is commanding enough transfer interest to garner a relatively sizeable fee and, while it would not be pure profit, it would make a difference to Chelsea’s bottom line.

Tactical importance: Hutchinson’s path to first-team prominence at Chelsea looks blocked by Palmer, Noni Madueke and, potentially, Michael Olise.

Opportunity cost: He is a skilful, explosive winger with the talent to become a difference-maker in the Premier League, so it is not impossible that Chelsea would be selling low on him.

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Andrey Santos

There is already confidence at Chelsea that they could recoup several times the initial £13million they paid to sign Andrey Santos from Vasco da Gama in January 2023.

But there is no desire to make him available. Chelsea’s enthusiasm about Andrey Santos’ potential has not been dimmed in the slightest by an unproductive loan at Forest last season. He finished the campaign very strongly with BlueCo sister club Strasbourg, where head coach Patrick Vieira is a huge admirer.

The 20-year-old has options again this summer, but do not expect Chelsea to consider selling: they believe he has a real chance to make himself a first-team fixture in time.

Emotion: Andrey Santos leaving Chelsea without making a single competitive appearance would barely cause a ripple at Stamford Bridge, beyond sparking distaste among some at what it would say about Clearlake and Boehly’s player-trading operation.

PSR: There is scope for a profitable sale here, but Andrey Santos is not anywhere near the top of Chelsea’s preferred players to offload.

Tactical importance: While not in the first-team picture yet, he could develop into a real No 6 or No 8 option for Maresca.

Opportunity cost: Andrey Santos has barely scratched the surface of what Chelsea believe his potential to be. Selling now is not a desirable option.

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The tall, imposing 20-year-old signed from Rennes last summer remains something of an unknown quantity at Chelsea as his first season was plagued by injury.

A little more than 300 minutes played across 12 Premier League matches were not enough to properly assess Ugochukwu’s readiness to play for Chelsea, but he will probably be behind Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia at the very least under Maresca.

It is also likely an insufficient sample to persuade another club to offer more than the £23.5million that Chelsea paid to acquire him 12 months ago. If it is decided that he will not get adequate developmental opportunities at Stamford Bridge, a loan makes more sense.

Emotion: Ugochukwu is viewed as no more than one of the many young, unproven players that Chelsea have decided to sign in the last two years.

PSR: There does not seem to be much chance of a benefit here, and perhaps even more risk of an accounting loss if Chelsea were to sell after so little playing time.

Tactical importance: Ugochukwu has an intriguing blend of attributes that could make him a Premier League No 6 or No 8 in the medium to long term. But Chelsea are very unlikely to be depending on him to win matches for some time.

Opportunity cost: If the recruitment team at Chelsea believed only a year ago that Ugochukwu was worth such a sizeable transfer fee, selling so soon would be more than a little strange.

(Top photo: Getty Images)