Champions League projections: All the talking points from Matchday 2

Matchday 2 of the 2024/25 Champions League brought goals and surprises in abundance as we continue to get to know the new format of the tournament.

Big wins for Barcelona, ​​Arsenal, Borussia Dortmund and Brest on Tuesday were followed by shock defeats for Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid as the 36-team rankings underwent an shake-up.

The results meant too The Athletics Projections – powered by data from Opta – saw several teams experience a rejig in their projected points tally and chances of reaching the round of 16. Here we take a look at some of the teams affected, with Matchday 3 less than three weeks away.

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Brest

Projected point total before MD 1: 8 (31st in projection table)

Projected point total after MD 1: 9 (25th)

Projected points after MD 2: 12 (18th)

Brest were one of the beneficiaries of the new Champions League format. Being placed in Pot 4 prior to the draw, the older system may have seen them face two or even three tough opponents in the group stage (ask Slavia Prague 2019-20, who sit alongside Barcelona, ​​Dortmund and Inter Milan was grouped).

Instead, however, they have started their debut European season with a 2-1 win over Sturm Graz at home and a stunning 4-0 defeat to Austrian champions Red Bull Salzburg in hostile territory. Initial projections had them in the bottom six positions, but they have quickly found themselves in the early knockout with two excellent performances.

Tougher tests await, but Brest appear to have increased their chances of reaching at least the play-offs in the knockout round (chance now 71 percent, compared to 35 percent before Matchday 1).

Other fixtures: Bayer Leverkusen (H), Sparta Prague (A), Barcelona (A), PSV (H), Shakhtar Donetsk (A), Real Madrid (H)

Bayer Leverkusen

Projected point total before MD 1: 14 (6th in projection table)

Projected point total after MD 1: 16 (5th)

Projected points after MD 2: 17 (1st)

Bayer Leverkusen is one of the seven perfect teams in the Champions League. Xabi Alonso’s side started their season in style, beating Feyenoord 4-0 in the Netherlands before beating AC Milan 1-0 on matchday 2.

The reigning Bundesliga champions are not favorites to win the tournament, but their impressive start has already seen their expected points tally increase by three. After their victory over Feyenoord, they had a 58 percent chance of immediately reaching the eighth finals and that number has now been increased to 71 percent. Their clash with Brest later this month should be a treat for any neutral observer.

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Borussia Dortmund, Leverkusen’s Bundesliga counterparts, also deserve a mention after beating Celtic 7-1 on Matchday 2 to maintain their perfect start. After being seeded seventh in the pre-tournament forecasts, they now sit second with 17 expected points and a 72 percent chance of finishing in the top eight.

On the other hand, however, RB Leipzig have dropped from 14th before the league phase started to 28th in the latest forecasts, having been reversed by winners in the final ten minutes against both Atletico Madrid and 10-man Juventus. Elsewhere, Bayern Munich’s expected points fell from 16 after Matchday 1 to 14 following their 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa.

Remaining fixtures: Brest (A), Liverpool (A), Red Bull Salzburg (H), Inter Milan (H), Atletico Madrid (A), Sparta Prague (H)

Arsenal

Projected point total before MD 1: 14 (8th in projection table)

Projected point total after MD 1: 14 (9th)

Projected points after MD 2: 16 (5th)

A 0-0 draw against Atalanta was far from an ideal start for Arsenal, but any doubts about their credentials were put to rest as they cruised past Paris Saint-Germain on Matchday 2 – arguably their toughest opponents of the league stage. finishing in the top eight (56 percent, up from 42 percent before Matchday 1) and winning it all (nine percent now up from six before Matchday 1) both enjoyed a boost.

Opta’s latest forecasts suggest Arsenal could match or better the points tally of Liverpool, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Barcelona. Home games against Shakhtar Donetsk and Dinamo Zagreb could help them improve their goal difference, which could prove crucial and help potentially rest players for their final league match on January 29 – with Manchester City joining the league on February 1 visits the Emirates.

Remaining fixtures: Shakhtar Donetsk (H), Inter Milan (A), Sporting Lisbon (A), Monaco (H), Dinamo Zagreb (H), Girona (A)

(Ryan Pierse – UEFA/Getty Images)

Aston Villa

Projected point total before MD 1: 10 (22nd in projection table)

Projected point total after MD 1: 12 (16th)

Projected points after MD 2: 16 (10th)

After Newcastle United’s troubles last season, eyes were on Aston Villa to see how they would adapt to the Champions League. A convincing 3-0 win over Young Boys on Matchday 1 boosted their hopes and improved their chances of direct qualification to the round of 16 from 11 percent to 19 percent.

However, few could have foreseen what was to follow this week, when another Jhon Duran stunner gave Villa a memorable 1-0 win over Bayern Munich in a replay of the 1982 European Cup final.

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That result gives Unai Emery’s sides favorable fixtures either side of Juventus’ visit to Villa Park in November, leaving them with just a five percent chance of elimination in the league stage.

Remaining fixtures: Bologna (H), Club Brugge (A), Juventus (H), RB Leipzig (A), Monaco (A), Celtic (H)

Real Madrid

Projected point total before MD 1: 17 (2nd in projection table)

Projected point total after MD 1: 18 (1st)

Projected points after MD 2: 16 (6th)

With something of an injury crisis and doubts over how their new-look front line will thrive, Real Madrid are off to a rocky start. Wednesday’s 1-0 defeat to Lille marked the fourth instance of the team dropping points in their first ten games and reduced their chances of retaining the Champions League trophy to 13 percent.

However, there is an air of inevitability surrounding Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid in the Champions League and this was also their first defeat since January, ending a 36-match unbeaten run. Their expected points total is still higher than that of Bayern, Barcelona, ​​Juventus and city rivals Atletico, who suffered a 4-0 thrashing by Benfica on matchday 2. Diego Simeone’s men are now 16th in Opta’s forecasts with a predicted points total of 13. .

(Michael Regan – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

However, Real Madrid’s task doesn’t get much easier, with games against three of the seven perfect teams so far (Dortmund, Liverpool and Brest). They will be desperate to avoid finishing outside the top eight with a Madrid derby scheduled for February 9, just days before the first set of knockout rounds (February 12 and 13).

Remaining fixtures: Dortmund (H), AC Milan (H), Liverpool (A), Atalanta (A), Red Bull Salzburg (H), Brest (A)

What about the others?

• All hope is not lost for Celtic. Despite a 7-1 defeat to Dortmund on Matchday 2, Brendan Rodgers’ side are still expected to take 11 points, giving them a 62 percent chance of reaching the play-off round. Dortmund were perhaps their toughest opponents of the league stage, with games against struggling RB Leipzig, Dinamo Zagreb and Young Boys to come.
• Both Liverpool and Juventus have made rapid progress thanks to a perfect start. Having started with the ninth-best points tally, Arne Slot’s side now sit fourth, behind only Bayer Leverkusen, Dortmund and Manchester City, and have a 44 percent chance of finishing in the top eight. Juventus is now seventh and has a 46 percent chance of direct qualification for the round of 16. Liverpool’s toughest remaining matches are against Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid in November, while Juventus face Villa in November and Manchester City in December.
• Speaking of City, they remain favorites to win their second Champions League title, with a 22 percent chance according to Opta’s latest forecasts. Pep Guardiola’s men edged Slovan Bratislava 4-0 on Matchday 2 after a 0-0 draw with Inter to start their season, but impressive wins for Bayer Leverkusen and Dortmund made the Bundesliga duo winners of the Champions League of 2023 narrowly overtook in predicted points.