Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes Prediction, Odds, Picks for UFC 303

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 is live from the fight capital of the world at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas as we prepare for another betting prediction and pick. A Featherweight (145) fight of monstrous proportions will take place as title contender No. 3 Brian Ortega acquires fast-rising prospect #14 Diego Lopes. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ortega-Lopes prediction and pick.

Brian Ortega (16-3) has gone 8-3-0-1 during his illustrious UFC career as a former title contender. After losing to Alexander Volkanovski in his most recent title fight, Ortega had to overcome an injury before a rematch with Yair Rodriguez. He excelled with a submission finish and will now try to get another title ticket with a victory here. Ortega is 5’8″ tall with a reach of 69 inches.

Diego Lopes (24-6) has gone 3-1 during his hectic run in the UFC since 2023. As a full-time coach and trainer for fellow fighters, he has now won his last three straight fights, finishing them all in the first round. While it’s a quick rise, Lopes could secure himself a title fight if he can step in on short notice and defeat a legend of the division. Lopes is 5’11” tall with a reach of 72.5 inches.

Here are the UFC 303 odds, courtesy of BetOnline.

UFC 303 Odds: Brian Ortega-Diego Lopes Odds

Brian Ortega: +120

Diego Lopes: -140

Over 1.5 rounds: -215

Less than 1.5 laps: +175

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Why Brian Ortega Will win

Brian Ortega really showed his determination as a competitor coming back from a serious injury, finishing Yair Rodriguez with a signature triangle choke in their rematch. He looks better than ever and it’s clear that he’s found a great mental state over his last few fights. With this call-up coming on two weeks’ notice, Ortega is no stranger to an accelerated fight camp. He’s been in the game for a long time and his experience in high-stakes fights will only benefit him against a fresher fighter like Lopes. Ortega is also one of the few men in the division who can match the jiu jitsu of Diego Lopes, so he’s confident that his skills will carry him into this fight.

Brian Ortega looked much calmer during his fight against Yair Rodriguez and his game planning to counter Yair’s wild style worked to good effect. Ortega also has a much more experienced kickboxer than his opponent so he will be more than willing to let Lopes stand in front of him while he picks his shots. This fight is all about staying calm and weathering the storm for Ortega while looking for that small opening to catch Lopes and end the fight.

Why Diego Lopes Will win

Diego Lopes was very excited to take this fight when he got the call two weeks ago and based on his last three performances, he is ready to impress with another wild finish to earn his eventual title shot. As a jiu jitsu coach for several fighters, Lopes is constantly training and learning new skills every day. His fight IQ is through the roof and he is extremely dangerous during every second of the fight. His jiu jitsu is second to none, but he will have his most formidable opponent yet in Brian Ortega. Still, this is just another fight for Lopes and he knows that his destiny is to eventually fight for the belt.

Despite his prowess on the ground, Diego Lopes isn’t complacent and has been working on developing his striking consistently. He’s won his last two fights with his striking and following it up with ground blows. If he can find even a little bit of advantageous ground control, Lopes will seize it and use his fists to get the job done. Combine all of this with his training alongside Women’s Flyweight Champion Alexa Grasso, and Diego Lopes is fully invested in this moment.

Last Brian Ortega-Diego Lopes Prediction and choice

This is probably the closest fight on this card in terms of matchmaking, given the extreme skills of both fighters on the ground with their jiu jitsu. Both men are deadly when it comes to finding submissions and neither will be willing to give an inch on the ground. If these two choose to wrestle, wrestling and jiu jitsu fans are in for a treat.

Both men were called up for this fight two weeks ago and both seem confident in their abilities against each other. Brian Ortega set up camp quickly, something he has experience with. This is not his first rodeo and he is used to this kind of pressure.

Diego Lopes has been training constantly and took this fight with great enthusiasm. He is at his peak performance-wise and it seems like he has been ready for this moment for a long time. I expect a very close fight and we could see this fight go all the way, given the respect that both men have. It might be a matter of who finds a submission, but I think Diego Lopes will get the win here as the slight favorite. He is peaking at the right time and I expect him to get his title shot after this win.

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Brian Ortega-Diego Lopes final Prediction and choice: Diego Lopes (-140)