Breakdown of Twins trade candidates: Joe Ryan – Twins

How is Joe Ryan?
For the second straight season, Ryan spent much of the second half on the IL, this time on high alert. When he was healthy he was pretty good; he looked like an ace at times. He doesn’t walk anyone, ranks in the 80th percentile for strikeout rate and was worth 3.1 fWAR in 2024 despite missing nearly two months. He will be eligible for arbitration for the first time and according to MLB Trade Rumors, he will make $3.8 million.

The case for trading Joe Ryan
Look, trading Ryan would hurt. He will bring great value over his three arbitration seasons as he has been worth 8.2 fWAR in his three full seasons and is still improving as a pitcher. Losing him would leave a big hole in the rotation, but the Twins are fortunate to have a number of playoff-caliber starters and an enviable amount of high-end pitching depth developing in the minors.

The main reason to consider trading him is that he would provide some loot. In a challenge trade, he would likely bring back a star player. If he were traded for prospects, he would likely bring back an organization’s best prospect.

Similar transactions from the past
It’s hard to find perfect trade comparisons because it’s rare to move a playoff-caliber pitcher with three years of team control. That said, there are a few imperfect comparisons to calibrate against.

The first is the Padres’ trade for Dylan Cease ahead of the 2024 season. While Cease is a better pitcher, he had two years of team control instead of three, so the return could be similar. The Padres gave up their 5th, 7th and 8th best prospects, and a major league relief pitcher. Pitcher Drew Thorpe was the headliner, a top-100 prospect with starter potential on the front line.

The second imperfect comp is the 2018 deadline trade of Chris Archer from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Archer was given three additional seasons of control and owed $34 million in today’s dollars. The Rays scored Tyler Glasnow, who was a top-50 prospect at the time, rookie outfielder Austin Meadows, who was also a top-50 prospect entering the season, and a player to be named later.

The third imperfect comp is the Twins’ trade for Pablo López. López had achieved similar results to Ryan for the Twins at the time of the trade. For two seasons of team control, the Twins gave the Marlins reigning batting champion and fan favorite Luis Arraez. They also received outfield prospect Byron Chourio and infield prospect José Salas. Had López come with a third season of team control, the deal might have been a one-for-one trade.

Potential trading partners
One of the truths of baseball is that a team can never have enough pitching, and Ryan would be a valuable asset to almost any team. That said, there are a few contenders who are especially likely to add Ryan to their rotation – we’ll start with the Braves, Astros, Orioles and Padres. It’s difficult to determine exactly how deals will turn out, so with any proposals consider that additional prospects may need to be included on one side or the other to balance the scales.

Atlanta Braves
The Braves lost Charlie Morton and Max Fried to free agency. Spencer Strider missed most of 2024 after surgery to install an internal brace in his throwing arm and won’t be ready to return for the start of the season. They still have Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwallenbach at the top of their rotation, but after that there is a significant drop-off to Griffin Canning and Ian Anderson. Joe Ryan would likely be their No. 2 starter until Strider’s return.

Here I would be looking for both right-handed starting pitcher Hurston Waldrep and catcher Drake Baldwin. Hurston started 2024 at Double-A, reaching Atlanta for two starts. He has a plus splitter and fastball, but his control is a work in progress. He has an upside on the front line, with the downside of being a bullpen ace. Baldwin posted an .891 OPS last season at Triple-A Gwinnett and is expected to be at least a solid backup catcher with the upside of being a good regular.

Houston Astros
After losing Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi to free agency, Luis Garcia is looking to become the Astros’ fifth starter when he returns from Tommy John surgery. Alex Bregman is a free agent, Jose Altuve is getting older, but they still have a great core and it seems likely they will remain all-in. Adding Joe Ryan would give them one of the best rotations in baseball while also allowing them to use their free agent dollars on hitting, which is their biggest need.

My question would be Yainer Diaz, the Astros’ young catcher. He isn’t arbitration eligible until 2026, which would add a few million in salary flexibility to give to a right-handed platoon outfielder or sign a good left-handed reliever. With four years of team control left, Diaz would make it easy to trade Christian Vasquez, Ryan Jeffers, or both. His bat is also strong enough to suit up at DH when he’s not catching. I assume the Twins will need to add a prospect to balance out this deal, but it’s probably worth it for a long-term solution at catcher.

Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles lost their ace Corbin Burnes to free agency, and Kyle Bradish could miss most or all of the season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery he underwent in June. Tyler Wells will also likely start the season on the IL after undergoing UCL surgery last June. Their best healthy starters are Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez. Eflin was great in 2023, but was otherwise a mid-rotation arm. Ryan would likely become the Orioles’ top staffer. The Orioles lineup is stacked and they have a great farm system, so there are some interesting options here.

I might see if I can convince the Orioles to trade Samuel Basallo, the #13 prospect in baseball. A 6’4” catcher and first baseman currently at Triple-A, he is ready to join the Orioles but is being blocked by Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle. There are some questions about his ability to stay behind the dish, but he has improved his receiving and his bat is good enough to be a regular at first base. Since the Twins would benefit from an improvement at both positions, this seems like a natural fit. Again, the Twins may need to add a prospect in even the trade.

San Diego Padres
Joe Musgrove will miss all of 2025 and Yu Darvish is near the end of the line. The Padres lost old friend Martín Pérez to free agency. President of Baseball Operations AJ Preller is known for wanting to win the World Series in 2025, and payroll could be a factor. Their payroll is close to the competitive balance threshold and the team can focus on adding impact players who also have cost control. Joe Ryan would come in behind Dylan Cease and Michael King and give the Padres a devastating top of the rotation.

It’s hard to line up a return that makes sense for the Twins, as they likely want guys ready to contribute now, and the Padres’ top prospects are largely in the lower minors. It’s also unlikely the Twins will receive additional salary in this industry, so most of the Padres’ established guys may not be in the mood. If I were to move Ryan for a prospect, I would push for Ethan Salas, who is a catcher, and the Padres’ best prospect. He had some of the most helium of any international prospect signed in 2023, but his stock is down slightly after posting a .599 OPS at High-A in 2024. At 18 he’ll be a project, but he might be available. and would have a real chance to become the Twins catcher of the future. The Twins have the added bonus of having his brother Jose in the system.

Conclusions
It would be a bit surprising if the Twins decide to trade Joe Ryan. But there are several scenarios where this could increase the Twins’ competitive window. If they are confident that Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews can all take a step forward, it may be in their best interest to take advantage of the skyrocketing value of a good pitcher.