Astros appear to be overpaying for starter Yusei Kikuchi in attempt to stay in the race for the AL West and maintain the ALCS streak

It appears the Houston Astros overpaid.

Sending two talented young players with major league playing time and another high-major minor league prospect to Toronto in exchange for Blue Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, a potential starter who can be acquired as a free agent, is a bit of a stretch given how the market has behaved so far leading up to Tuesday’s 6:00 p.m. ET MLB trade deadline.

To be clear, the Astros should go for it. That’s not the issue here. Houston went into a tie with the Mariners atop the AL West on Monday before losing 5-3 to Pittsburgh. They’ve climbed admirably out of the abyss after a slow start to 2024. When you hire guys like José Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez, the World Series is always a possibility. There’s a reason this club has made seven straight ALCSs.

The Astros have also addressed an area of ​​need on their roster: starting pitching. A series of injuries has left Houston’s rotation criminally understaffed.

But the issues with this particular deal are (1) the player they acquired and (2) the price they paid.

Kikuchi is a solid MLB starter who should slot right into Houston’s rotation and soak up innings in the home stretch. But will he start a postseason game for the Astros?

Unless the still ice-cold Justin Verlander isn’t fit in October, probably not.

Verlander, Framber Valdez and a couple of standouts — Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown — would precede Kikuchi on the list. The 33-year-old Japanese left-hander started the season well, but his secondary pitching has been punished this year and, given that he’s a free agent at the end of the season, the price Houston paid seems steep.

Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner are all either in Triple-A or have had time in the big leagues. That suggests Toronto is more interested in a revamp than a rebuild, which makes sense considering Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are still under contract through next season. So who are these guys the Jays got back in return for Monday’s deal?

Bloss struggled in a three-start debut for Houston this season, but take those numbers with a grain of salt. The 23-year-old right-handed pitcher was drafted out of Georgetown University last season and was brought up to the big leagues as a result of Houston’s injury woes. He has a heater in the mid-90s with excellent carry, giving him a great floor to be a future rotation option. There’s more work to be done here, but he’s under the team’s control until the sun melts.

From a physical perspective, Loperfido smells a little like Cody Bellinger. He’s clearly not as good, but there’s athleticism to like with the big-swinging OF/1B. The former Duke Blue Devil also debuted this year and was more boring than disastrous, despite having a yikes-inducing strikeout rate. If he can cut down on some of the in-zone whiff, he could be a decent everyday player.

Wagner, the son of former MLB closer Billy Wagner, is more of an up-down utility bench player with good swing decisions and limited power.

When you consider that Kikuchi will hit the free agent market at the end of the season and compare Toronto’s haul to the disappointing return the White Sox got for a more sought-after starter in Erick Fedde, it’s hard not to see this as an overpayment by Houston