Assessing a potential Rockets acquisition of Giannis

Monday night’s Rockets-Bucks game pitted a young, rising threat from the Western Conference in Houston against a former champion and current title contender in the Bucks. But while the game went right down to the wire and resulted in a 101-100 Milwaukee victory, the game was played against the backdrop of a compelling storyline off the field.

Rumors have swirled in recent weeks regarding the future of Bucks superstar and former MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. After mortgaging much of their future in last season’s blockbuster trade to acquire superstar guard Damian Lillard, the Bucks sit at just 12th in the Eastern Conference at 5-9. For his part, Antetokounmpo was as dominant as ever, averaging 31.4 points and 12.4 rebounds per game on 60.1% shooting from the floor.

Speculation has been rife as to whether Giannis would request a trade if the Bucks fail to turn things around. In October 2023, Antetokounmpo signed a three-year veteran extension worth up to $175.37 million, running from 2027 to 2028, with the final season including a player option. Next season, Giannis will make an estimated $54.13 million. Originally drafted in 2013, the forward has spent his entire career with Milwaukee.

If the Bucks forward does indeed become available, Houston is considered one of the strongest prospects. It’s no secret that the Rockets are awash in assets as general manager Rafael Stone builds up his war chest in preparation for a pursuit of this caliber. Antetokounmpo, still only 29, is exactly the type of player Stone would want to cash in his chips for.

What might a transaction look like? The Rockets have no shortage of young prospects and future draft picks. One challenge could be that two of Houston’s most compelling young players, 2021 draftees Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green, both signed rookie extensions before the start of this season. Under the league’s collective bargaining agreement rules, that makes it difficult to trade their salaries (for matching purposes) before next summer. It’s probably safe to leave out either of these two in a potential Giannis trade unless this summer. That leaves forwards Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason and Amen Thompson, guards Cam Whitmore and Reed Sheppard, and a host of future Phoenix Suns picks.

The other aspect of this is that the Rockets, as currently constituted, are one of the top teams in the Western Conference and the entire league (as measured by overall net rating). To what extent would they be willing to blow up their young core in the search for a star player? If the team wins 50 or more games this season, and the Bucks push for Sengun, Thompson or Eason as a starting point for trade talks next summer, it’s not hard to see Stone walking away and looking at what he’s built. But what if the asking price is a little less? The Rockets will certainly strike. The Rockets and Giannis will be one of the most interesting storylines to keep an eye on as the season progresses toward the trade deadline, especially if the Bucks continue their freefall in the standings.