Andrew Richter: The world is waiting as Iran decides what to do next

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The October 26 Israeli military attack on Iran marked a turning point not only for the region, but for the entire world. Not only was it the first major direct Israeli military attack on the Islamic Republic, but it was clearly intended to send a strong message to the mullahs in Tehran.

But first let’s be clear what that message was: By sending more than 100 planes into the skies over Iran and operating virtually unhindered for hours and seemingly at its own discretion, Israel was essentially telling Iran that it can strike whenever it wants and whatever can do whatever it wants. it wants.

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Iran’s Soviet-supplied air defense system, the S-300, proved no match for Israel’s F-35 and F-15 attack aircraft. Israel targeted a wide range of military sites and air defense systems linked to the country’s energy and petrochemical industries. Iranian media have reported that four soldiers defending these locations have been killed.

With the attack, the ball is now back in Iran’s court. Tehran must decide whether to respond (again) and start a new wave of escalating strikes, or let the current crisis pass.

The signals have been mixed so far. On the plus side, official Iranian state media was quick to downplay the strikes, even going so far as to say they were limited and caused “little damage.” But since then, the regime’s language has become increasingly threatening, first by claiming that Iran has a “duty” to respond, and most recently by suggesting there will be “bitter, unimaginable consequences” for Israel. These seemingly contradictory responses to the severity of Israel’s attack may indicate a divided government, pulled in opposite directions by competing factions.

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Israel, for its part, clearly thought long and hard about the targets it had hit, and almost certainly adjusted them after its original plans were leaked to an Iranian website. It ensured that oil or nuclear facilities were not directly affected, as both constitute “red lines” that Iran would have felt obliged to respond to. Instead, the targets were carefully selected so as not to force Tehran’s hand, and only one civilian casualty appears to have occurred.

Other factors will undoubtedly influence Iran’s decision. Perhaps most critically, Iran’s economy is in terrible shape and cannot afford all-out war with a richer, more technologically advanced enemy. And Iranian military officials are certainly aware that the Israeli army is the most powerful in the region, having seen it decimate their allies Hamas and Hezbollah in recent months.

Furthermore, Iranian officials also know that, apart from their ballistic missiles – which have so far been largely unable to get past Israeli defense systems – Tehran has no weapons that could harm Israel. The air force, to take just one example, is barely functional and would prove to be no match for the Israelis. Thus, it would enter any larger conflict with Jerusalem from a position of weakness.

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At the same time, however, Israel must consider a number of factors that should also give the country pause. Most obviously, the army is undoubtedly tired after operating at a high pace for more than a year in Gaza and in recent months in Lebanon. The Israeli army had to be reinforced by civilian reservists, and these men are probably tired of the endless fighting and are looking forward to returning to their normal lives.

And while Israel does not comment on its weapons stockpiles and stockpiles, many analysts have begun asking tough questions about whether it is running out of ammunition, including the anti-missile systems on which the Iron Dome depends. Although Israel produces some of its weapons domestically, it is dependent on Washington for the majority of its arsenal, and many have even wondered about US arms supplies. So Israel has its own reasons for wanting to avoid a full-scale war.

That said, I expect Iran to retaliate, and again, the chances of a bigger war will depend heavily on chance. That is, if Iran manages to get one of its missiles to evade Israeli defenses and hit an apartment building or a busy market, causing significant civilian casualties, Israel will have no choice but to escalate further.

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And next on Israel’s target list will be the oil and nuclear facilities, which it undoubtedly wanted to attack this time but which President Biden has talked out of doing. An attack on oil facilities would likely devastate the Iranian economy, while an attack on nuclear facilities would likely lead to an Iranian search for a bomb (assuming the attack is not entirely successful). And an attack on either would almost certainly provoke a strong Iranian response.

Israel and Iran have been moving closer to full-scale war for several years. So far, cooler heads have prevailed on both sides. But the governments of both states contain political hardliners who would like nothing more than to attack the other side with serious force with the intention of causing significant damage. Should either side fail to restrain those calling for such strikes, the two countries, the wider region and indeed the entire world will ultimately pay the price.

Andrew Richter is an associate professor of political science at the University of Windsor

National Post

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