All Blacks: the telling statistics that clarify the stupidity of Hoskins Sotutu: Planet Rugby

Blues star Hoskins Sotutu was a major omission from Scott Robertson’s first All Blacks team of the year after a brilliant Super Rugby Pacific season; we dive into the possible reasons why he was left out.

The 25-year-old has shone for the Blues all season, but Robertson has preferred Chiefs powerhouse Wallace Sititi and 2023 World Rugby Player of the Year Ardie Savea as his number eight, with Ethan Blackadder and Luke Jacobson further options in the position ushers.

A deep dive into the stats provides some insight into what Robertson’s requirements are for the position and perhaps the reason for Sotutu’s omission.

The stupidity of Hoskins Sotutu

Following the official squad unveiling, the All Blacks boss explained that the loose forwards were the most challenging selections and took the longest time to complete.

“It was the one that took us the longest time,” he explained.

“We probably spent the most time at and until the end. My biggest thing is that our loose forwards – and our entire team – are great at both
sides of the ball, mentally strong, physically tough, and you can see that in those who are selected.”

Looking at Sotutu’s basic stats, he is certainly throwing his focus into both attack and defense, having done so all season for the Blues.

He scored 12 tries and assisted eight in the Super Rugby season – both good for a forward in the competition – and ranked in the top 10 for carries and top 20 for tackles.

Sotutu was also in the top five for total rucks, highlighting his incredible work rate during the Blues campaign, and was quite successful winning 14 turnovers.

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Where does he fall short?

So far his numbers have been exceptional, so where does he fall short compared to those selected before him?

For starters, Sotutu has averaged the second most penalties this Super Rugby season, compared to the likes of Jacobson, Sititi and Blackadder.

He averages 0.73 penalties per game, with only Jacobson (1.3) averaging higher than number eight, which is understandable as he has played the ‘fetcher’ role for the Chiefs this season – he also topped the tournament for the most turnover won.

Meanwhile, Sititi averages less than a penalty every four games, while Blackadder is fractionally better than Chiefs’ number eight.

Of the four, Sititi also carries more in a match than the other three loose forwards, averaging sixteen carries per match, six more than Sotutu and four more than Blackadder.

Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs number eight also averages more meters (65) per game than his Blues counterpart (43), but crucially he also averages more meters in contact (20) than Sotutu (13) .

Blackadder (17) comes remarkably close to being the Chiefs’ power forward despite averaging four fewer carries a game. This shows why the All Blacks continually turn to him when they are fit.

The stats show that Sotutu is not shy about getting his hands on the ball and is certainly a versatile player, averaging more offloads (1.7) and passes (8) than the other Super Rugby number eight options in the squad, but It is clear that Robertson is looking for a tough ball carrier in his back row and the stats suggest Sititi is a better fit.

In fact, it’s not just power that the Chiefs man brings, as he also averages more defenders beaten (3.4) than the other three players and more clean breaks (1.05).

Sititi seems to be gaining the advantage over Sotutu with the ball in hand, but is that also the case in defence?

For turnovers won, Jacobson and Sotutu average more than one per game, with Sititi (0.7) even behind Blackadder (0.86), but the Blues back row (10) averages five fewer tackles per game than the rest.

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Tackle height

Perhaps the most telling statistic is tackle height, as Patrick Tuipulotu is the only back-five forward in the All Blacks squad who did not average at least 30% of his tackles low.

With World Rugby laws continuing to punish tacklers who come into high contact, it is understandable that Robertson wants to get lower tacklers into his squad, and the stats bear that out. Players who go too upright on contact are likely to end up in the sin bin or sent off permanently, as was the case for Sam Cane in the World Cup final.

In fact, Sititi has the second highest average of low tackles, being low 55% of the time across the season – Samipeni Finau betters that by one.

But in Sotutu’s case, he only went low 18% of the time during the season, with Tuipulotu achieving a similar average; There is a trend towards Blues players going more upright into contact to slow down the opposition attack or gain turnovers, which could very well be a system requirement.

Robertson is in the fortunate position of being able to be specific in what he wants in his back rowers and making little distinction between some of these stars. Something as simple as the height of the tackle could be the deciding factor.

It remains to be seen whether Robertson will return Savea to the number seven jumper, with Cane ruled out due to injury, or whether the world’s best player will remain in the eighth role.

But one thing is clear: the new All Blacks boss is looking for powerful loose forwards in all facets of the game and in the case of Sotutu v Sititi, the latter wins that battle.

One thing that can’t be perfectly illustrated in numbers is a player’s mental toughness, and Robertson will have done his due diligence on Sotutu to gauge where he stands on that front. He has also coached against the number eight on numerous occasions and will understand his game quite well.

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