Alcaraz surprises at the US Open: what went wrong and what does it mean?

NEW YORK — After a dominant summer that saw him win the titles at Roland Garros and Wimbledon (becoming only the sixth man to win both titles in the same season), Carlos Alcaraz was eliminated for the first time at the US Open, losing 6-1, 7-5, 6-4 to world number 74 Botic van de Zandschulp.

Third-seeded Alcaraz played the match on the second night at Arthur Ashe Stadium in front of a packed crowd and was the big favorite to win. Van de Zandschulp admitted he had to show his best tennis before the match to have a chance.

“Hopefully he’s not 100 percent,” he joked to ESPN’s Brad Gilbert. “You know, I need a little help tonight.”

But despite showing no signs of physical ailments, Alcaraz was flat from the start and Van de Zandschulp seized his chance. He then managed to fend off Alcaraz’s attempts at a comeback and won in two hours and 19 minutes.

After the game, Van de Zandschulp showed a slight smile before shaking Alcaraz’s hand at the net.

“I’m a little speechless,” he told ESPN’s Mary Joe Fernandez later on the court. “It was an incredible night here. First night session for me on Arthur Ashe. The crowd was amazing, so thanks for that. Yeah, incredible night.”

Alcaraz became the first male player seeded in the top three to lose before the end of the second round of the US Open since 2006.

So, what just happened and what does it mean for the rest of the tournament? Here are some key takeaways from Thursday’s shocking upset.

The busy schedule and surface changes may have caught up with Alcaraz

Alcaraz, a four-time major champion at 21, has made winning majors look easy. But — spoiler alert — it’s anything but.

Alcaraz had lost his first-round match in Cincinnati earlier this month — his only preparation event for the tournament — and was down a set in his opening-round match against qualifier Li Tu on Tuesday. After switching from clay to grass and then back to clay for the Olympics before the start of the hard-court season, Alcaraz said it had taken its toll and that the grind of the intensive summer schedule had caught up with him.

“The tennis schedule is so tight,” he said Thursday, moments after the loss. “I’ve been playing a lot of matches lately, you know, with Roland Garros, with Wimbledon, the Olympics. … I probably came here with less energy than I thought I would.”

During Thursday’s match, Alcaraz seemed confused from the start. He said he expected Van de Zandschulp to make a lot of mistakes and planned accordingly. When Van de Zandschulp didn’t, he said he didn’t know how to adjust.

“I didn’t know how to handle it, how to deal with it,” Alcaraz said. “I couldn’t raise my level.”

He made 27 unforced errors during the match and made a crucial double fault during a key moment late in the second set. He has never come back to win from two sets down before, and he failed to do so on Thursday. It was Alcaraz’s earliest Grand Slam exit since Wimbledon in 2021.

Alcaraz promised to learn from the experience and hoped it would help him perform better in the future.

Van de Zandschulp was ready for it

While many on social media claimed not to know who the 28-year-old Dutchman is, he is no stranger to the second week in New York. In 2021 – the same year he made his Australian Open debut and with just five ATP wins to his name – he came through qualifying and reached the quarterfinals. He surprised then-world No. 8 Casper Ruud in the second round and world No. 11 Diego Schwartzman in the round of 16. He lost to eventual champion Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals, but was the only player in the tournament to take a set from him.

In other words, he’s been here before.

And he channeled that experience Thursday. Despite having played just one match on hard courts since the US Open in March, not having won back-to-back tour-level matches all season and with a 1-3 record in majors this year, Van de Zandschulp was undeterred. As he later told Fernandez, he believed he could win. He said he went into the match with a plan to be aggressive and immediately stopped Alcaraz’s rhythm, preventing him from hitting a single winner in the first set.

Botic van de Zandschulp has just defeated Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open! photo.twitter.com/QK3ZrkoPgx

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 30, 2024

As expected, Alcaraz managed to raise his level in the second set, but Van de Zandschulp did the same.

In total he won 28 of the 35 net points, had 22 winners and, according to Alcaraz, simply gave away very few free points.

“He played great. He played really good tennis,” Alcaraz said.

Van de Zandschulp later admitted that he was nervous, but showed little of it outwardly. He rarely showed emotion.

“Of course I was a bit nervous, but I think if you want to beat one of these guys you have to be incredibly calm and keep your head,” Van de Zandschulp said. “Otherwise they can easily take advantage of it.”

It was his seventh victory over a top-10 opponent and his first in a major tournament.

The men’s title is really up for grabs

Even before Thursday night’s surprise event, the tournament was already considered one of the most open men’s majors in recent history.

Alcaraz was a slight favorite to win the trophy, with reigning champion Novak Djokovic and world No. 1 Jannik Sinner close behind him in the odds, but there were questions for all three entering the tournament. Before winning Olympic gold (against Alcaraz in the final), Djokovic had gone a year without a title and it was his worst start to a season since 2006. Sinner is under intense pressure after announcing two failed doping tests in March.

Djokovic and Sinner remain in contention, but neither has looked flawless in their respective matches. Alcaraz could have faced Sinner in the semi-finals, and Djokovic is on the other side of the draw.

So now, instead of Alcaraz, Van de Zandschulp will face No. 25 Jack Draper on Saturday with a spot in the second week at stake. The winner of that match will face David Goffin or Tomas Machac, both of whom are unseeded. No. 10 Alex de Minaur is the highest-seeded player still in the quarter of the draw.

Tommy Paul, ranked No. 14, is the only American left on that side of the draw and could potentially play Sinner, who next faces Christopher O’Connell in the fourth round on Saturday. If Paul pulls off that upset, a trip to his first major final could be well within reach. Medvedev is also in the top half of the draw and is seeking his fourth final appearance in Queens.

Djokovic will face Alexei Popyrin, the world number 28 and reigning Canadian Open champion, on Friday. Americans Frances Tiafoe, Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz and Brandon Nakashima are still in the draw, as are Ruud, Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev, as potential threats to Djokovic in his bid to reach the final.