Afghanistan v South Africa preview and best bets

Afghanistan’s dream T20 World Cup continues when they meet South Africa in the first semi-final in Tarouba on Thursday morning, 1.30am, UK time.

It wasn’t plain sailing for Afghanistan on Tuesday as they barely scraped past Bangladesh to book their place in the last four, their fine bowling attack once again standing tall as Naveen-ul-Haq, Rashid Khan and Fazallhaq Farooqi did the business.

Between that trio, they have taken 43 wickets in the tournament already, and on a pitch in Tarouba that has so far seen teams bowled out for 40, 78 and 95, they promise to make life tough for South Africa’s generally powerful batting line-up .

The issue for Afghanistan is that both teams will have to bat on this surface, and while openers Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran have enjoyed good tournaments, there isn’t a great deal for South Africa to fear if they can make early inroads.

It’s worth nothing that 159-6 against New Zealand was the best Afghanistan have managed with the bat against a full member country at this World Cup, followed by 148-6 against Australia. On both occasions, Gurbaz and Zadran did the bulk of the scoring.

Perhaps that middling type score, led by those openers, will suffice again, but South Africa boast a fine pace attack led by Kagiso Rabada and Anrich Nortje, and the Proteas would be wise to go for the kill early.

Another factor in South Africa’s favor is that in a potentially low-scoring game, they have two of the most destructive batsmen in world cricket who could break the back of the match in less than 10 overs.

After a poor start, Quinton de Kock fired a 40-ball 74 against United States of America and then 65 from 38 deliveries against England. If he gets South Africa off to another flyer on Thursday – with Rashid unlikely to bowl in the powerplay – it could be a long way back for Afghanistan, who you feel would be out of their comfort zone if needing to score at anything above eight runs per about.

With Heinrich Klaasen, for my money one of the best T20 batsmen in the world, in the middle order along with Aiden Markram and David Miller, South Africa ought to have too many guns for their opponents in the batting department.

South Africa certainly won’t get a better chance of reaching an ICC final and shrugging off theirs chokers tag, though perhaps they might feel like they have already done that having gone through the competition unbeaten and won a number of close matches.

With Afghanistan in new territory here, this is one occasion in a knockout match where South Africa are entitled to handle the occasion better than their opponents, and their XI is packed full of experience.

I’d expect the Proteas to come out on top, but with two quality attacks on show on a surface not renowned for big scores, I don’t think fireworks are on the cards.

Even if de Kock bats for 8-10 overs, making a sizeable contribution will still take some doing, and I have even less faith in Afghanistan putting up big numbers.

Backing unders on runs appeals as a sound strategy, but the layers are sure to be wise to that, and I’d prefer to back NO FIFTY TO BE SCORED IN THE MATCH at anything in the region of 3/1.

In four matches at Tarouba so far, we have only seen one half-century scored across eight completed innings, and given the strength of the two bowling attacks on show, it’s hard to be confident that trend will be broken on Thursday.

Odds of 3/1 with bet365 make plenty of appeal. The 11/4 with BoyleSports, Paddy Power and Betfair is also fine.

Posted at 1050 BST on 25/06/24

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