A Way-Too-Early Basketball Primer for the 2028 Olympics

It’s been a little over a week since Tom Cruise rode off into a cargo jet to perform the first Olympic overture to the 2028 Los Angeles Games, yet I still find myself basking in the afterglow of the basketball played in Paris. Things feel different now, like the basketball-adoring public has tapped into a heightened consciousness. The 2024 Olympics delivered a two-week tournament that opened a portal into a new basketball epoch. It featured a men’s semifinal game between the U.S. and Serbia that will go down as one of the greatest games ever played; a women’s gold medal game decided by a single point after Team USA had won its previous nine gold medal games by an average of 22.3 points; and a thrilling men’s gold medal clash that was put to bed by an iconic shooting display from Steph Curry, one of the game’s most significant revolutionaries.

What a gift it was to witness a historically dominant Team USA program pushed to the brink. To watch legends Curry, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant collectively channel their competitive fervor on a stage where pride—the most primal, elemental motivating factor—was at stake. And what a sense of progress for the state of basketball that the level of competition didn’t come as some sort of existential shock the way it did 20 years ago, when Argentina’s golden generation dismantled an ill-prepared American men’s roster en route to the only non-U.S. gold since professional athletes were even allowed to play in the Olympics. To advance for a shot at the 2024 gold, Team USA had to overcome Serbia’s Nikola Jokic, the monolith of basketball’s present; to win it all, it had to overcome the blinding light of France’s Victor Wembanyama, the monolith of basketball’s future. So it is, so it shall be.

Anthony Edwards staked his claim as Team USA’s heir apparent, celebrating his 23rd birthday during the Olympics. He was the greenest player on the U.S. roster but far from the youngest in the men’s basketball pool. South Sudan’s Khaman Maluach, a top-five recruit who will play alongside U.S. phenom Cooper Flagg at Duke this fall, doesn’t turn 18 for another month. Every other country that finished in the top five had players younger than Edwards. Silver medalist France boasted three rotation players 21 years old or younger in Wembanyama, Bilal Coulibaly, and Matthew Strazel. Serbia had 21-year-old Nikola Jovic. Germany’s Franz Wagner is 22. Dyson Daniels and Josh Giddey of Australia are both 21.

Preparing the next generation has always been an essential task at the highest level of international hoops, but never more than now. The global talent pool is as deep as it’s ever been. Edwards will likely be firmly in his prime when the Olympics come to L.A. in 2028. Benchwarmers Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum will be 28 and 30, respectively, and while neither player logged as many minutes as they would have liked to in this year’s Games, they’ll both likely take on heavier burdens the next time around as the new veterans. With promotions come a few vacancies. Team USA will need new understudies who might one day become leaders, as will the rest of the world. It’s only natural to look toward the future—to the 2027 FIBA World Cup, the 2028 Olympics, and beyond—and to those who might inherit it one day. Here’s a way-too-early glimpse at where the Olympics’ best teams stand for 2028, and the names and faces to come.

USA

Olympic rank: 1
FIBA world rank: 1
Outlook: A generational vibe shift is coming—will it be too much to hold on to gold?

If Paris was indeed a curtain call for LeBron, Steph, and KD (who, even in their advanced age, were the three most important players on the U.S. roster), the team will need a serious infusion of talent. Chet Holmgren seems like a lock to make the team if only to shadow the looming threat of Wemby; Paolo Banchero, who represented the States at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, could emerge as a go-to scorer with a FIBA game reminiscent of Carmelo Anthony’s; Ja Morant and Zion Williamson would be interesting options as overwhelmingly athletic sledgehammers. However, there’s a good chance that the players Team USA ultimately needs aren’t in the NBA already. It’s been six years since a U.S.-born player was awarded league MVP; it’s been three seasons since an American has even come in third place. But the crown jewels of the upcoming 2025 and 2026 draft classes have transformative potential.

The hype surrounding Flagg is real. He is about as close to a lock to become 2025’s no. 1 draft selection as Zion was in 2019 or Wemby was in 2023. Perhaps you’ve read the headlines or seen the footage. Flagg, at just 17 years old, was the youngest player on the U.S. men’s select team, and, according to the straw poll conducted by The Athletic at July’s training camp, he was also the best. This isn’t normal. Flagg was playing alongside NBA players with egos and enviable futures of their own—yet his game inspired awe from grown men he still can’t quite call his peers. The 6-foot-9 wunderkind is among the most formidable defensive prospects the game has ever seen—one would have to go back to Anthony Davis in 2012 to find someone so young with such an easily projectable defensive impact. Forget about his second jump—his sixth jump is as instantaneous as his first. He has the lateral agility, competitive spirit, and presence to lock down perimeter players in isolation even at his size; he has the instincts, power, and explosive vertical pop to become one of the NBA’s very best weakside rim protectors. His offense (especially in comparison to his defense) is a work in progress, but the strides he’s made in the past two years transitioning from play finisher to on-ball shot creator have been drastic and point to a gift in skill acquisition. Flagg’s baseline is already that of an invaluable cog in Team USA’s designs, not unlike what Bam Adebayo has been in his years of national-team service. But it is Flagg’s remarkable plasticity and the tabula rasa allure of his offensive skill set that could turn him into a future centerpiece. He was given the rarest of opportunities as a teenager to hone and demonstrate his skills among the very best in the world. And then he exceeded everyone’s expectations.

AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer are the biggest potential names at the top of the 2026 NBA class, and their stylistic juxtaposition as headlining wings would be familiar to anyone who has followed the draft over the past 30 years. Dybantsa is the athletic marvel whose unique tools have given him the latitude to fill out his all-around game; Boozer (son of Carlos) is the strong and preternaturally skilled player with veteran-level offensive refinement and poise that belies his youth. It’s a tale previously told by the likes of Penny Hardaway and Jamal Mashburn; Grant Hill and Glenn Robinson; Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison; LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony; and Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker. (A largely injury-riddled list of what could have been, I know.) Dybantsa and Boozer present the latest and greatest iteration since LeBron and Melo.

It’s rare to see an elite athlete like Dybantsa so self-possessed and attuned to the unique rhythms and affordances of his speed, explosiveness, and flexibility at such a young age—and leverage it all so decisively. It’s equally rare to see the grace with which Boozer, who was lauded as one of the best prospects in the world as soon as he became a teenager, plays despite the weight of lineage and expectation. Dybantsa’s style communes with some of the game’s most iconic wings, and the degree to which we can all see the vision informs his rise to top-recruit status. Boozer—a high-feel power wing at 6-foot-9 who can dribble, pass, and shoot—has been nothing if not a paragon of consistency and remarkable production: Banchero is a popular point of comparison for Boozer, but Boozer effectively matched Banchero’s high school résumé all by the age of 15.

Team USA may never again send six players 22 years old or younger to the Olympics, as it did in 2004 (particularly after the result), but it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if these three found their way onto the national team in 2028.

France

Olympic rank: 2
FIBA world rank: 4
Outlook: With Wemby—and a scary run of young talent—all things are possible.

To borrow a term rooted in dynasty fantasy football parlance, France is in a state of perpetual reloading, building around the country’s singular generational talent with an ever-shifting menagerie of players. Wembanyama will be 24 for the Los Angeles Games, just entering his prime, likely touting novel ball skills incomprehensible to entire swaths of humanity. And there will be plenty of talent around him. The challenge in four years time might just be which players to leave on the cutting room floor. (Hell, even in Paris, the team barely had any use for Rudy Gobert, a four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year.) Les Bleus had five players on the team who were 31 or older, all of whom will be vulnerable come 2028. A record four French players were drafted in the first round of the 2024 NBA draft, and none made the Olympic roster. Former lottery picks Killian Hayes and Ousmane Dieng were also cut from the preliminary roster.

France’s Olympic run didn’t quite feel like a culmination as much as a prelude. It was simply laying the groundwork for the future of the national team by homing in on the most important objective: figuring out how to best deploy Wemby and where his spots are on the floor. There are certain things that Wemby can do that simply cannot be accounted for (watch any of his putbacks or any of his tentacular steals during the tournament). But as the San Antonio Spurs know all too well, simply getting the ball to Wemby is a great place to start. France’s guard play was the least notable aspect of its run. Though, should all go to plan, that could change come 2028.

Nolan Traoré, a 6-foot-5 floor general who is projected to be a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft, could be France’s long-term answer at lead guard. The 18-year-old has an improving pull-up game, a natural sense of touch and placement on passes, and smooth accelerative and decelerative power to combat his lack of explosive athleticism. On a team that will always have size on its side, Traoré’s facilitating potential could be the squad’s skeleton key.

A large part of France’s success in Paris was the lineup versatility that coach Vincent Collet was afforded. There was the ever-present threat of Wemby pulling up from 3, but also the threat of Guerschon Yabusele or Mathias Lessort burying people down on the block. Alex Sarr (assuming the summer league reports of his demise were comically premature) could add another dimension to France’s already versatile frontcourt looks. In four years, France can conceivably trot out situational lineups wherein every player is at least 6-foot-7 with a plus wingspan. If Collet ever plans on hanging it up, maybe France ought to give Nick Nurse a call.

Potentially joining Traoré in the 2025 first round is Noa Essengue, a wiry, 6-foot-10 combo forward with excellent athleticism and uncommon ball skills for a player his size and age (he’d be one of the youngest draft-eligible players in 2025). These are the kinds of players that France can’t seem to stop churning out. The national team’s wealth of size and length across positions will be a significant factor in the international tournaments to come. Perhaps the most integral step in France’s 2028 revenge tour will be integrating its seemingly endless procession of athletic and rangy 3-and-D wings to succeed Nicolas Batum and the archetype he helped build. Bilal Coulibaly will be in line for a much larger role in 2027 and 2028, as will whoever pans out among 2024 draftees Zaccharie Risacher, Tidjane Salaun, Pacome Dadiet, and Melvin Ajinca. (I’m personally intrigued by the fit of Dadiet, whose frame and style would have fit the vibe of the Paris squad, falling somewhere between France’s momentary breakout stars Yabusele and Isaia Cordinier.)

Forgive me for what I’m about to do, but if we’re really trying to read the tea leaves, we might have to look even further down the pipeline. France’s most promising long-term prospects are 16-year-old Hugo Yimga Moukouri, a powerful and explosive 6-foot-8 swingman with nascent shot-creation ability, and 15-year-old Nathan Soliman, a 6-foot-8, two-way wing with a massive wingspan who started playing in the French third-tier basketball league at 14—Wembanyama was 15 when he made his professional debut. Yimga Moukouri was born roughly four months before Barack Obama was elected president in 2008; Soliman was born roughly four months after Obama was inaugurated in 2009. (Oh, and Wemby has a kid brother, Oscar.)

It wouldn’t be a shock to consider France the 2027 FIBA World Cup favorite, especially given Team USA’s historical nonchalance about preparing for what the program perceives as an inferior tournament. Les Bleus might not be the favorites heading into Los Angeles, but the richness of their talent pool can no longer be denied. The 2028 gold medal game in L.A. could very well be Part 2 in a home-and-away series between the U.S. and France.

Serbia

Olympic rank: 3
FIBA world rank: 2
Outlook: Serbia might have the right horses for Jokic in L.A.

For all we know, by 2028, a 33-year-old Jokic could have already ridden off into the sunset and be living comfortably in the family house he’ll soon build with his father in Sombor, enjoying a lifetime of free booze from adoring locals and giving his dear ponies the best life imaginable. But something tells me Jokic and the rest of the Serbian team take no solace in being on the losing end of one of the greatest international basketball games of all time. The Joker played the most total minutes of anyone in the Olympics, but such is the burden of being as good as he is. Despite the wear and tear he accrues every season, it’s not hard to fathom that Jokic could maintain elite status four years from now with his ground-bound game. The Serbian team clearly means a ton to Jokic—we saw it in his face, in his play. There is a generative effect to representing his country and serving as the giving tree for the players around him. And the team in 2028 could be as good as any he’s ever played on.

Bogdan Bogdanovic, Serbia’s team captain and all-time leading scorer, will be 35—probably good for another run. Nikola Jovic, who will be 25 in 2028, had a small role in Paris but was a promising, jumbo-sized 3-and-D wing with serious court vision as a starter for the Miami Heat last season. Four more years of HEAT CULTURE could help him emerge as Serbia’s next star.

The development of the two wild-card Serbian draftees from this June—19-year-old Nikola Topic and 20-year-old Nikola Djurisic—will say a lot about Serbia’s shot at revenge in L.A. Topic, who will be apprenticing in Oklahoma City this season for the most prolific driver in the NBA (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), is a lead guard unlike any the country has ever produced. With a remarkably quick first step, Topic has a preternatural ability to find his way to the rim, and his 6-foot-6 frame affords him greater angles both as a finisher and facilitator. Djurisic, at 6-foot-8 with an athletic build, looks the part of an NBA wing and plays with audacity—his dunks and whip passes are pure TikTok catnip. Between Topic, Djurisic, and Jovic, Serbia will have a trio of creative on- and off-ball playmakers with serious positional size advantages to place into Jokic’s orbit.

As for the kids? They’re all right: Savo Drezgic (18), who will play for Georgia as a freshman this season, is a smooth 6-foot-4 point guard with a crafty dribbling suite and deep range. Andrej Kostic (17) plays like a new-age Bogdanovic. Last week, the young Real Madrid sharpshooter Andrej Bjelic (16) hit 8-of-9 from 3 against Finland at the FIBA U16 EuroBasket tournament in Greece—that degree of accurate volume shooting, especially at such a young age, will always pop off the screen.

(One last word on Serbia: I pray that, when the time comes, the world is ready for Aleksej Pokusevski and vice versa. We demand Olympic Poku.)

Germany

Olympic rank: 4
FIBA world rank: 3
Outlook: There might be a golden generation emerging behind Franz Wagner, but will it arrive in time?

Germany’s 2028 delegation may well be sponsored by the Orlando Magic, featuring the Wagner brothers (Franz and Moritz) and the team’s 2024 first-round selection (Tristan da Silva), who holds German and Brazilian dual citizenship but was slated to play for Germany in the 2020 FIBA U20 EuroBasket before it was canceled during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nothing four years of peer pressure from the Wagners can’t will into existence.

Franz will be 26 in 2028, and, should his development on the suddenly contending Magic continue unabated, he will be a perennial All-Star. Team captain and lead guard Dennis Schröder, who was named one of the five best players of the 2024 Olympics by FIBA, has been on record saying he’ll represent the national team until he’s 40, but this is ostensibly Franz’s team moving forward. It sure would be nice if the Franz who shot league average from 3 in his first two seasons in Orlando made a return by then; after shooting 28 percent from 3 this past season for the Magic, Franz’s struggles continued on the Olympic stage, as he hit only 20 percent of his 3s all tournament. (Thank god for Andreas Obst.)

Da Silva, Franz, and Isaac Bonga would give Germany a trio of jacks-of-all-trades 6-foot-8 or taller. Perhaps the real question with Germany is whether brand-new Oklahoma City Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein will be on the roster for Los Angeles. For what it’s worth, Hartenstein has expressed his desire to play for the national team but told the German press last December, “I don’t think I’ll be invited to the Olympics under any circumstances.” Having finished just outside the podium in Paris and no longer riding the high of the 2023 World Cup title, perhaps Germany’s considerations will be different in 2028.

There is legitimate hope for the future: Germany went undefeated in the 2024 FIBA U18 EuroBasket earlier this month, the first gold medal the country has ever received at the event. The team was led by two potential heir apparents at the point guard spot: Christian Anderson, a score-first guard with deep-range confidence who will play for Texas Tech this season, and Jack Kayil, a crafty pick-and-roll maestro who will play in Serbia at the now-renowned Mega, replacing Topic, the Thunder’s recent lottery talent. Ivan Kharchenkov is the country’s best wing prospect and will play for Bayern Munich alongside Obst this season. Johann Grunloh—a mobile, floor-spacing, pick-and-roll big—could be drafted in 2025. Longer term, the 15-year-old Fabian Kayser holds a whole lot of intrigue as a potential 6-foot-7 lead initiator on offense.

Canada

Olympic rank: 5
FIBA world rank: 5
Outlook: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander keeps the contending window open, but there are still glaring gaps in the roster with no clear solutions.

Canada’s fifth-place finish fell well short of expectations both at home and in the sportsbooks, where the team had the second-best odds of winning gold heading into the competition. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the team’s constant: He was the tournament’s second-leading scorer and as devastating a shot creator as ever. RJ Barrett was the embodiment of a certain formula in FIBA play: A strong, bullying wing with 3-point shooting ability is among the most valuable archetypes in the international game. But Dillon Brooks and Kelly Olynyk, two essential performers in last year’s FIBA World Cup, tailed off precipitously—Brooks was inefficient, and Olynyk was essentially phased out of the game plan in favor of more defensive-minded bigs. And Jamal Murray, who was largely considered Canada’s second-best player when he arrived in Paris? A depressing scene for Canadians and Nuggets fans alike.

In a déjà vu moment against France in the quarterfinals—a rematch from Canada’s 2000 Olympic heartbreak—the team’s worst fears were realized against the strength and length of the eventual silver medalists. For as much as Paris was meant to be a culmination of Canada’s long-term basketball development plan, the team had an obvious weakness. The team had strong guards and wings, but its frontcourt depth was severely lacking in size, athleticism, and stylistic variation. The presence of 7-foot-4 Zach Edey might have helped, but it also would have been asking a lot of the massive 22-year-old to man the back line. Timberwolves big Leonard Miller feels like a lock for the 2028 roster, and while his funky inside-out offensive game is riveting, he doesn’t quite project as the kind of anchor Canada needs.

Moving forward, Canada’s path to the podium will have to rely on building on its strengths. Recent lottery talents Shaedon Sharpe and Bennedict Mathurin are two hyper-athletic swingmen with flamethrower scoring potential. Guard Andrew Nembhard has exceeded expectations in just about every role he’s been thrown into in his short NBA career, and he will be leaned on as SGA’s backup and backcourt running mate. The country’s next-best NBA prospect is Will Riley, who will spend his freshman year playing at Illinois as a willowy, 6-foot-8 wing with an unorthodox Kevin Martin–esque nature to his game but with unfathomably deep range from 3. Canada’s search for younger frontcourt depth may take a bit longer: Its best long-term prospect is Paul Osaruyi (currently fifth in ESPN’s 2027 recruiting rankings), a long and explosive 6-foot-9 big with touch around the basket and a strong face-up driving game.

Australia

Olympic rank: 6
FIBA world rank: 7
Outlook: The best defense in the world?

Even at 35, Patty Mills gave the world buckets in Paris, showing that the magic he holds in FIBA play is still there. But he’ll be at the edge of 40 in 2028, and Boomers boomer Joe Ingles will have already crossed that threshold—odds are, Australia’s median age for the L.A. Games will decline precipitously.

Josh Giddey stepped up as Australia’s best all-around player in Paris, clarifying the team’s standing in the future. Having not only a capable leading scorer but a player who can organize the offense at a high level—especially at 6-foot-8—is a massive piece to the puzzle of international competition. Giddey will be 25 in 2028, as will new Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels, who, as ever, was an unholy terror on defense and figures to expand his offensive capacity in a larger role on a will-they-won’t-they-rebuild Hawks team over the next few seasons. Defense seems to run in the family: Dyson’s 16-year-old younger brother, Dash Daniels, is among the best perimeter defenders in the world at his age, having averaged 3.6 steals in the FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup last month. Should the younger Daniels make the team in 2028 as a 20-year-old, Australia could have an elite point-of-attack defensive unit surrounded by NBA-caliber team defenders.

Dante Exum may well be the elder statesman in Los Angeles, and while time may erode the lightning bolt that was his first step, he has the international reps and requisite size and length to continue contributing as a 3-and-D stalwart for the Boomers. Same goes for Exum’s former Mavericks teammate Josh Green (once he learns how to dribble) and 2024 Olympics preliminary roster cut Matisse Thybulle (once he stabilizes his 3-point shooting). New Pacers rookie Johnny Furphy, who will be 23 in 2028, will add an off-ball dimension as a movement shooter with the athleticism to both attack closeouts and serve as yet another roving help defender. Australia should boast one of the world’s best defenses—and that’s before mentioning the elite prospect who could anchor the back line for the foreseeable future.

The 7-foot-3 lottery talent Rocco Zikarsky is potentially next in the line of young giants who have made an immediate impact in the NBA as mobile rim protectors—maybe it’s the presence of Exum and Green on Australia’s roster, but the Dereck Lively II comparisons seem to make themselves. Zikarsky’s flexibility is unique for his size, something he likely owes to growing up in a swimming family—his father, Bjorn, was a bronze medalist at the 1996 Olympics competing in the 4×100 freestyle relay for Germany. It’s the little things that make Zikarsky a truly exemplary defensive prospect. For a player of his immense size, Zikarsky has a full range of motion and command over his body’s positioning. He can backpedal to curtail drives and immediately swivel his axis to wall off a drive from the opposing angle. With the bruising Jock Landale and the pick-and-pop artist Duop Reath, Australia should have stylistic versatility at the center position and a defensive ceiling that will keep the team in medal contention.

Honorable Mentions

• Spain (Olympic rank: 10/FIBA world rank: 6) had a rough go at the Olympics in the Group of Death, and with the recent retirement of longtime captain Rudy Fernández, the last vestige of Spain’s golden era is now gone. But in his stead emerges Hugo González, a potential top-five pick in the upcoming draft and one of the best wing prospects to come out of Europe in some time. With a strong and explosive 6-foot-6 frame, González looks the part of an archetypal wing, with elite awareness, tools, and tenacity on both ends of the floor. In a rebuilding generation for Spain, González could be a future cornerstone.
• Lithuania (Olympic rank: NR/FIBA world rank: 10) might seem like a curious addition to the list. The country didn’t qualify for Paris after losing to Puerto Rico in the qualifying tournament, but 2028 presents one last opportunity to take advantage of Domantas Sabonis—who, at 32 by that point, would be at the edge of his prime—and his All-NBA talent. Lithuania’s most intriguing prospect is 18-year-old Kasparas Jakucionis, a wildly creative, 6-foot-5 guard who will play alongside Riley, the Canadian prospect, at Illinois this season. Jakucionis’s body control is impressive for his age; he’s already comfortable with change-of-pace dribbles and feints that allow him to get into pull-ups and toss imaginative passes with both precision and flair. Lithuania’s best shot at making its way back to the Olympic stage in 2028 may be leaning into youth and finding out what it could have in a dribble handoff game between Sabonis and its crafty star in the making.