A defining 2024 season awaits the Saints and Dennis Allen | Saints

New Orleans residents are unfortunately very familiar with the meteorological term “wide cone of uncertainty,” and it certainly applies to the 2024 New Orleans Saints.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints won 11 games and claimed the NFC South division title this season. And I wouldn’t be surprised if the wheels fell off completely and they went 5-12 — or worse.

The situation for the Saints is uncertain as their season opener on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers approaches.

There are good reasons for optimism.

You don’t have to be a blindly loyal, hardcore Who Dat to believe the offseason changes and think that this is the year it all comes together for Dennis Allen, Derek Carr and co.

New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has installed an intriguing offensive system that has players and coaches raving about it all offseason.

Carr has embraced the new plan and appeared confident during training and pre-season performances.

Chris Olave, Taysom Hill, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson form an exciting group of attacking playmakers.

The star-studded defense looks strong once again, especially if Marshon Lattimore stays healthy and a motivated Chase Young can breathe life into the pass rush.

And the special teams are, as always, rock solid.

The ingredients are there for an improved season and a return to the play-offs. But many of those same ingredients were there the previous two seasons, and we all know how that ended.

Maybe it’s the scar tissue from those years, but I find it hard to believe. Call me cynical, but the Saints have lost the benefit of the doubt with me, and I don’t seem to be the only one who’s skeptical.

Of the 30 respondents to our annual survey of local media members, only nine predicted the Saints would have a successful season.

NFL analysts and league observers predict the Saints will finish third, behind the Falcons and Bucs, in the NFC South.

Vegas bettors, meanwhile, have set them as 100-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Only seven teams in the league have longer odds.

The experts are not the only ones who have doubts.

Even the team’s fans, who are among the most loyal and passionate in the entire sports world, appear to be in “show me” mode.

The normal excitement that accompanies the start of a season has largely been muted. Traffic to Saints content on local media has dropped dramatically, and crowds for the team’s two public practices have been noticeably smaller than in previous years.

And while season tickets are selling out again, I’m hearing more and more people reducing their season ticket money or dropping their tickets altogether, sometimes even after having had them for decades.

For many fans, it’s starting to look like the pre-Payton/Brees Saints days.

Old-school Saints fans remember those turbulent times. When the Saints teased talent but consistently fell short. When big-name free agents regularly deserted them at the altar. When prized draft picks failed on the field to find success elsewhere.

A loyal Saints fan who is a friend of mine used to describe those teams by comparing them to the deadbeat sibling in your family, the one who can’t quite make it. You love them so you keep giving them second chances, but deep down you know they’re just going to blow it again.

In that way, the days of old for the Saints are beginning to resemble those of old again, and it’s an existence few fans want to relive.

The reality is that no team has mastered mediocrity better than the Payton/Brees-less Saints. Excluding the unprecedented Katrina season of 2005, the Saints have finished 9-8, 7-10, 9-8, 7-9, 8-8, 8-8, 9-7, and 7-9 (64-67 overall) in the eight seasons since 2001 that did not feature the magical Payton-Brees battery.

While there’s something to be said for being competitive on an annual basis for over two decades, it’s also easy to fool yourself into thinking you’re “always close,” and that’s where it feels like the Saints find themselves these days.

In the NFL, the worst thing that can happen to you is being stuck in the middle. And honestly, I’m not sure fans can handle another .500 season. In the grand scheme of things, it might be worse than a complete implosion, because it could extend the Saints’ stay in purgatory.

The great Bill Parcells always said that the NFL was made up of 10-12 functional clubs that knew what they were doing and regularly competed for championships.

“The rest,” he said, “just swam around in circles and couldn’t get out of the way.”

Those dysfunctional clubs may beat the functioning clubs in a given match or season, but they lack the discipline and direction to sustain success.

For most of the glorious Payton-Brees era, the Saints were one of those functional, championship-contending teams. But with each passing season, those blissful days seem to be a thing of the past.

The 2024 season will play a major role in determining the future of the Saints.

Can they dispel the doubters, return to the play-offs and show everyone they know what they’re doing?

Or will they continue to swim in circles and miss the play-offs for the fourth year in a row?

We will know soon enough. A defining season awaits.