A closer look at the Colts’ 53-player roster projection: Is Indy lacking experience?

The Colts decided to try again, but I’m not sure they have enough experience in some areas.

I released my way-too-early 53-man roster projection last week , and while I doubt the predictions will be 100 percent accurate, this roster projection didn’t feel like the ones I’ve made in years past. There was no battle to cut it or a tough toss-up between two players to decide who makes the cut. My thought process was the opposite. I had to force myself to just pick a player or two to reach the 53-man threshold.

During this exercise, three positions raised my concerns and made me dig deeper: safety, cornerback, and running back. We all know that these positions aren’t considered Indianapolis’ strongest units, but how they perform could have a huge impact on how far the Colts go (or not) in 2024.

Let’s take a closer look at the inexperienced and, so far, unproductive players Indianapolis is pinning its playoff hopes on.

Safety

The Colts technically have nine safeties on their roster, but that’s only eight since Ronnie Harrison Jr. moved to linebacker last year and will likely play that position again this season. Julian Blackmon leads the pack and he’s coming off a career year as a strong safety. He was playing at a Pro Bowl-caliber level, throwing a career-high four interceptions before a shoulder injury sidelined him for the final two games of the regular season. Blackmon was retained on a one-year deal in free agency.

Here’s where things get tricky: Blackmon has started 46 games through the first four years of his NFL career. The other seven safeties (not including Harrison, who has started 48 games in his career) have started a combined 29 games. Those 29 games belong to the two players currently vying for Indy’s starting free safety spot: 2022 seventh-round pick Rodney Thomas II (25) and 2022 third-round pick Nick Cross (four). Cross started the first two games of his rookie season but didn’t start again until the final two games of the 2023 campaign. Thomas emerged as a full-time starter as a rookie but struggled in 2023 until he was ultimately benched for the final two games, even with Blackmon already sidelined in favor of Cross.

Nick Cross had 39 total tackles and one interception while playing in all 17 games last season. (Grace Hollars/USA Today)

Perhaps either Thomas or Cross could still be the Colts’ long-term answer at free safety. Cross took the majority of first-team reps during spring ball, but that wasn’t enough to convince me he’s the right guy. Plus, there’s no scrappy veteran to turn to like the Colts did in 2022 with Rodney McLeod Jr., who shined in his lone season in Indy. All the Colts have left behind is Cross and Thomas, more inexperience and risk. I only put third-year pro Trevor Denbow on my 53-man roster projection because I felt like I needed a little insurance in case another safety were to get hurt (Daniel Scott is already out for the year with a torn Achilles), but to me, the position is crying out for an upgrade on the outside.

Veterans Quandre Diggs and Justin Simmons are still available as free agents and it would be good for the Colts to sign one of them before it’s too late.

Corner defender

Kenny Moore II has established himself as one of the league’s best slot cornerbacks, and he was paid accordingly when he signed a three-year, $30 million contract in March that briefly made him the NFL’s highest-paid nickel back. After years of consistent production, Moore has earned my trust as someone to rely on in the secondary. But like Blackmon’s experience in the safety room, the list ends there. Moore has started 89 games over the first seven seasons of his NFL career, compared to 30 starts among the other nine cornerbacks combined.

I’ll grant that JuJu Brents should be viewed as a starter entering his sophomore season, as he clearly wasn’t drafted in the second round to be a backup last year. Assuming he can stay healthy after missing eight games last year, he’ll slot in on Moore on the outside. As for the other starting outside job? That’s less clear. Jaylon Jones, a seventh-round pick in 2023, started 10 games last year and took the majority of first-team reps this spring. Colts GM Chris Ballard remains high on Jones, but I’m not convinced. The Colts took a similar approach at free safety last season with Thomas, another former seventh-round pick who had a strong 2022 campaign, only to have him regress massively in 2023. Who’s to say Jones won’t do the same?

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The other cornerback in the mix for a starting position is Dallis Flowers. He has enough confidence to make Superman look uncertain, but he’s also coming off a torn right Achilles and could be a while away from getting back to full form. Behind him, the experience stack is thin, with career reserves, special teamers and rookies rounding out the rest of the depth chart.

I’d beg the Colts to sign a veteran free agent, but unlike the safety market, there aren’t many options. Indianapolis likely won’t land Xavien Howard due to his legal issues, Steven Nelson recently retired , and former Colt Stephon Gilmore turns 34 during the season. Jones could alleviate all my concerns about Indianapolis’ lack of experience and depth at cornerback, and I’ll certainly swallow my crow if he shines. But if that doesn’t happen and the Colts suffer, I’ll ask Ballard some tough questions at his end-of-season press conference early next year.

Running back

What a difference a year makes. Last summer, I was reading through the bylaws of the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement because an injured Jonathan Taylor had requested a trade. It got so bad that we started keeping track of Taylor’s smile (or lack thereof) and the colors of his hoodies. Fortunately for Taylor, that’s all behind him. He’s fully healthy and his new contract starts this year, with a $10.6 million salary in 2024. Taylor is just three years removed from being the league’s leading rushing champion, though he’s only 25 and Ballard thinks he’s in for a big year.

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But who will replace Taylor? Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson (who didn’t make my 53-man roster) both got a brief moment in the spotlight last year, but are we confident they’re ready for bigger, more consistent roles? Evan Hull is back in action after torn his left MCL and was limited to just one game in 2023. I put him on my 53-man roster for his pass-catching ability and prowess in pass protection, but are we confident he’ll thrive in a bigger role?

The Colts haven’t made any significant investments in their running back room this offseason to replace last year’s top backup, Zack Moss, who led the team in rushing yards before leaving for Cincinnati in free agency. While I’d like to believe Taylor has another All-Pro season in him, it would be naive to think he’ll get healthier as he ages. He’s been sidelined for a combined 13 games over the past two years. If Taylor misses another extended period in 2024, the team will be forced to turn to Sermon, Hull and/or Goodson, none of whom have much of an NFL presence. As it stands, Sermon appears to be the favorite to fill the No. 2 role. The 25-year-old was a third-round pick but has rushed for just 346 yards in his first three seasons.

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I know full well that the presence of a healthy and dynamic dual-threat QB like Anthony Richardson should improve Indianapolis’ ground game, regardless of who’s in the backfield. We’ve seen plenty of evidence that this is a fruitful approach with Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts.

However, if Ballard wants to win the AFC South for the first time in a decade, I think he needs to add more experience to his team. For now, my 53-man roster projection is just an educated guess. But soon, the Colts’ real roster will be playing for real results.

(Top photo of Jaylon Jones: Justin Casterline/Getty Images)