Fantasy Football History: Lessons Learned From Past Rookie RB Classes That Apply in 2024

NFL teams have changed their running back strategy in recent years. Teams have become less interested in drafting them early — with rare exceptions — and most NFL offenses now utilize some sort of backfield platoon. The days of dominating your fantasy draft with a bunch of early running back picks are long gone.

But rookie production at this position has been fairly predictable and consistent for a decade. I spent a few days mining the last decade of rookie stats at this key position, and the annual haul is remarkably consistent.

(Explore the history of early fantasy: QB’s | RB’s | WR’s | TE’s)

In each of the last 10 seasons, there have been between 4-8 rookie backs who have scored 100 fantasy points or more (scoring 100 fantasy points in most seasons will put you within the RB40 cutline, which is a rough estimate of fantasy value retention). There have been 55 backs who have done so.

Here’s how that group of 55 compares to the NFL draft round; the players who made the 100-point club as rookies:

• 1st round: 12 players

• 2nd round: 11 players

• 3rd round: 12 players

• 4th round: 9 players

• 5th round: 3 players

• 6th round: 1 player

• 7th round: 1 player

• Non-drafted: 6 players

This list isn’t dominated by early picks, but there are more bites of the apple outside of the first round. Let’s look at some recent rookie classes and see what common trends emerge.

2023: Four 100-point backs

I get that Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson could be frustrating as rookies — Gibbs had to deal with David Montgomery, while Robinson had to live in the volatile world of Arthur Smith — but they ended the year ranked RB10 and RB12, respectively. That’s a hit, and they certainly seemed to justify the first-round draft capital their NFL clubs spent on them. They’re both 2024 fantasy first-rounders, and rightfully so.

Speed ​​demon De’Von Achane landed at RB21 despite a modest 130 touches. Tyjae Spears landed at RB39 and has a chance to be Tennessee’s top back this year, regardless of what you think of Tony Pollard. Zach Charbonnet spent most of the fantasy season on the roster but rarely flourished, while Tank Bigsby looked like a bust in Jacksonville.

2022: Five 100-point backs

The league didn’t select a first-round pick in the spring of 2022, but it did find a lot of talent at the position. Kenneth Walker (RB15) was the most impactful, while Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce and Isiah Pacheco all found success despite modest draft capital (picks 151, 107 and 251 in the NFL Draft, respectively). Breece Hall just missed out on that list with 100 points, largely because he was limited to seven games. Unfortunately, he showed star quality as a rookie (5.8 yards per carry, 6.9 yards per touch), and he confirmed that in a full 2023.

2021: Seven 100-point backs

Najee Harris came out of the box with an RB4 season; he’s been RB12 and RB20 since, and the Steelers didn’t pick up his fifth-year option. This pick was always about volume, not explosion. Travis Etienne was a 2021 draft pick who didn’t debut until 2022 due to a foot injury; he was an efficiency darling in Year 1 (5.1 YPC) and more of a volume accumulator last year (3.8 YPC, but 12 touchdowns), six of them from the 6-yard line and in). Probability is always going to be a huge part of our fantasy search.

The rest of the rookie class already feels a bit dated; Michael Carter, Elijah Mitchell and Chuba Hubbard don’t seem to offer long-term answers, Javonte Williams has competition in Denver and Rhamondre Stevenson is having a mediocre year.

2020: Six 100-point backs

Jonathan Taylor was RB4 in his rookie year and RB1 as a reliever. He’s been injured for most of the last two seasons, but now that he’s 25 and surrounded by a good infrastructure in Indianapolis, he’s a proactive choice for me in 2024.

Antonio Gibson was useful in his first two seasons (RB14, RB10) and a bit player since then. He’s looking to break into New England’s backfield. JK Dobbins was solid as a freshman (RB17) but has been mostly injured since then. He’s looking to revive his career with the run-first Chargers.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was definitely drafted by the Chiefs (pick 32), and the same likely goes for D’Andre Swift to Detroit (pick 35) and AJ Dillon to Green Bay (pick 62).

2019: Four 100-point backs

Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery have been consistent fantasy grinders between the tackles, while Miles Sanders and Devin Singletary have been inconsistent players and have served better as secondary options. Interestingly, all four of these backs have advanced beyond their original draft team. Tony Pollard was an interesting backup for Dallas, but he didn’t do much when he was finally forced into a major role last year. Alexander Mattison had a similar arc with Minnesota; he didn’t produce much when he was finally asked to handle a significant workload last season.

2018: Five 100-point backs

The Giants ignored modern draft theory and spent the second overall pick on Saquon Barkley; he was a cracker in Year 1 (RB2), but has been hit and miss since (RB10, RB119, RB34, RB6, RB13). Now he’s primed to succeed as part of Philly’s offensive infrastructure.

The Patriots took Sony Michel four picks over his Georgia teammate, Nick Chubb, but Chubb has always been the better pro. Kerryon Johnson had a solid rookie year with Detroit (RB33) but quickly faded. Philip Lindsay was a welcome surprise as a 24-year-old undrafted rookie.

2017: Six 100-point backs

We had one big hit (Christian McCaffrey) and one big miss (Leonard Fournette) in the top eight picks, though the Buccaneers did offer Fournette a useful second act in 2021 and 2022. The later rounds produced some nice hits, with Alvin Kamara as a third-round smash and Joe Mixon as a steady second-round grinder. Kareem Hunt was the initial star of this group (RB3, RB8), but he hasn’t aged well. Jamaal Williams somehow threw for 17 touchdowns with the Lions two years ago, then one touchdown in New Orleans last fall.

2016: Four 100-point backs

Ezekiel Elliott has become a bit of a joker the last few years, but his first six seasons in Dallas were fantasy gold (RB2, RB9, RB5, RB4, RB11, RB6). And he’s still a very good converter from short-yardage spots, so maybe he has something left in his 29th season. Derrick Henry wasn’t asked to do much as a rookie (123 touches), but was a star two years later; I expect him to score an easy 12-14 touchdowns in Baltimore this fall.

Three forgettable rookies (Jordan Howard, Devontae Booker, Robert Kelley) joined Zeke on the 100-point list.

2015: Eight 100-point backs

Todd Gurley and David Johnson both had their moments as fantasy football kings, though neither player aged well. Gurley never made it to his 27th season, and Johnson’s last four years were mediocre (RB37, RB19, RB67, RB132). Melvin Gordon notoriously failed to throw a touchdown as a rookie, but had 12 in his second season.

While this class scored well for first-year utility, only Gordon, Gurley and Johnson topped 3,500 career rushing yards. When was the last time you thought about Jeremy Langford, TJ Yeldon or Duke Johnson?

2014: Six 100-point backs

This is another class that was more useful early on but didn’t stay valuable for long. Carlos Hyde nearly reached 5,000 career rushing yards, and Devonta Freeman was a shocking fantasy answer in 2015 (and was valuable the next two seasons). James White eventually emerged as a valuable Patriots piece, a handy find with Pick 130. While voters went with Tom Brady, White could have gone on to be the MVP of Super Bowl 51 (14-110-1 through the air, three touchdowns).

Looking at the class of 2024

So, history tells us that four of these players will reach (at least) 100 fantasy points, but it’s hard to see those paths at this point. Of course, no running backs were taken in the first round of the 2024 draft, and the first name mentioned, Jonathon Brooks, is coming off a torn ACL in November.

The three third-round backs present interesting cases for plausible upside. Trey Benson has the chops to quickly challenge James Conner, and Conner typically needs some maintenance time each season. The Rams made Kyren Williams a star last year, but volume was a big part of the story. With Blake Corum holding down third-round capital, you have to assume Sean McVay sees a role for Corum right away. New Packer MarShawn Lloyd had a fumbling problem at USC, but he also made his share of chunk plays.

There will always be some crafty backs coming out of the later rounds. Bucky Irving has no major competition in front of him in Tampa Bay. Jaylen Wright is a perfect fit for Miami, another speed darling. Kimani Vidal still has room to move up with the Chargers. New Bronco Audric Estimé did some impressive things at Notre Dame.

This is likely the first year in a long time that no rookie back is an immediate surprise RB2. But remember that opportunity and volume at running backs generate value more than at other positions. Any player who ultimately finds his way to a projectable 10-13 touches per week should be viewed as a flex candidate at worst coming week. As usual, you’ll want multiple stash-and-hope backs at the back end of your roster.