Fantasy Football ADP Droppers: Wide Receiver

We think we know, but actually we don’t.

Fantasy football has historically been a victim of recency bias. If a player doesn’t live up to expectations the previous season, it’s very difficult to back them again.

If you fool me once, it’s your shame. If you fool me twice, it’s my shame.

This often results in players being unfairly aggressively undervalued the year after a disappointing performance. When you add in other confounding factors like offensive line changes, fluid offensive weapons, and the coaching carousel, a poor previous season can be drastically suppressed in the ADP chain.

Let’s take a closer look at which players are being drafted well below last year’s fantasy finishes. Will these players absolutely outperform their ADP? Unsure, but it’s a starting point for all fantasy drafters to consider as they attempt to mitigate their own recency bias symptoms.

Last week we looked at the quarterback and running back values ​​from last season’s final fantasy rankings.

Next time? Wide Receivers.

2024 ADP Droppers: Wide Receiver

Mike Williams, New York Jets

This time it’s a leap into the unknown.

Williams played in just three games before tearing his ACL last year, but he still showed that tantalizing upside. He improved his production each week, posting seven receptions, 121 receiving yards and a touchdown before leaving that third game with the injury.

Therein lies the mystery of Mike Williams. As healthy, mass production.

His 13.6 fantasy points per game in a 0.5 PPR format ranked 12th among all wideouts last season. This year, he has a bottom-barrel ADP of WR58, which is 46 spots lower than that short-term ranking from last season. For comparison, Jerry Jeudy was WR58 in FPPG last year with just 7.2 FPPG. Over the previous two seasons, Williams has played in at least 13 games and finished as a WR20 and WR13, easily crushing his current ADP at Underdog.

Living in the New York Jets passing attack led by Aaron Rodgers is certainly a boost. If he stays healthy, Williams is undoubtedly one of the best fantasy values ​​at any position.

Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers

Adam Thielen has the quietest season in football history with 103 receptions.

Playing in a struggling Panthers offense, Thielen is once again going unnoticed after ranking 13th in targets, ninth in receptions and first in slot snaps among all wide receivers, according to FTN’s chart data.

The Panthers have significantly upgraded their receiving weapons for second-year quarterback Bryce Young, adding elite separator Diontae Johnson and trading for explosive rookie Xavier Legette. But the market correction on Thielen is too much.

Thielen finished as an overall WR3, ranking as the WR31 in 0.5 PPR formats. His current ADP of WR72 is ridiculous, considering he’s never finished with fewer than 67 receptions in a game with at least 13 games played.

For context, Tutu Atwell was the WR72 last year with just 5.8 FPPG. At 33, I fully expect Thielen’s production to take a hit, but he’ll also have plenty of usable (WR3 or better) statlines. In 2023, he’ll have six straight games of WR2 or better overall performance.

Despite the increased target competition, Thielen is essentially a free Best Ball wide receiver who is coming off a 100-catch season. I encourage all draftees to embrace the low-risk, high-reward wideout.

Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders

Meyers is a PPR machine, racking up 95 or more targets and 67 or more receptions in three straight seasons. He’s finally shaken off his aversion to touchdowns, increasing his total from just 2 in 2021 to a career-high 8 last season.

Meyers is another wide receiver who has seen his ADP drop due to uncertainty at quarterback. The Raiders couldn’t draft Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix, and entered this season with two uninspiring options: Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew. But when you realize that Meyers has caught the most passes from Mac Jones and O’Connell over the past three seasons, there’s no reason he should have an ADP that’s 34 spots lower (WR59) than his WR25 overall finish last season.

According to FTN’s chart data, Meyers ranked in the top 20 in catch percentage among wide receivers with at least 100 targets and 21st in total routes run despite playing one fewer game than most starting wideouts.

The presence of Davante Adams will always limit Meyers’ upside, but he will certainly outperform his current ADP, with massive upside potential if rumors of an Adams trade materialize.

Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns

Death, taxes, and Amari Cooper finishing as a WR2 or better.

The 30-year-old Browns wideout has been the picture of consistency throughout his nine-year NFL career. He has seen 108 or more targets and 68 or more receptions in his last five campaigns with 1,100 or more yards in four of those five seasons. Cooper has recorded five or more touchdowns in every NFL season, with seven or more scores in five of his last seven years.

It’s hard to imagine Cooper seeing worse quarterback play than he did in 2023, when he had the stellar quartet of Joe Flacco, Deshaun Watson, P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Despite the disaster under center, Cooper fought his way to three top-10 finishes, including a massive 51.5 fantasy-point performance in Week 16 of the best ball playoffs.

Cooper’s inconsistent weekly production amounts to just 12.7 FPPG, but his WR17 ranking is 12 spots better than his current WR29 ADP on Underdog.

Cooper ranked third with 17.4 yards per reception, trailing only Brandon Aiyuk and George Pickens among wideouts with at least 100 targets. Imagine what Cooper could do this season if Watson truly resembles his three-time Pro Bowl level from 2018-20.

Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers

The fantasy community is pessimistic about all of the Panthers after last season’s dismal 2-15 finish. But that’s exactly when seasonal fantasy value exists.

Johnson joins a Carolina team with new head coach Dave Canales, who is looking to maximize the skills of second-year quarterback Bryce Young. While the 2023 season wasn’t kind to most receivers in the Pittsburgh offense, Johnson still managed 13.9 yards per reception, which ranked 16th among wide receivers, according to FTN chart data. His competition for targets is rookie Xavier Legette and 34-year-old Adam Thielen.

I have my doubts about Legette’s rookie impact and am therefore bullish on Young’s established connection to Thielen and his new lead wide receiver, Johnson. Canales has had tremendous success reviving the careers of Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay. I predict a similar outcome with Young, who will leverage Johnson’s elite ability to separate himself from defenders. With an overall RB8 and RB22 on his resume, there is clear evidence that Johnson can produce if used properly. Outside of the top-36 wide receivers (WR44) on Underdog, I am bullish on the upside for the new Carolina WR1.