Manipur crisis: What does the NPP’s withdrawal of support mean for the Biren Singh government?

In a major turn of events, the National People’s Party (NPP) on Sunday announced that it has withdrawn its support from the ruling BJP government in Manipur due to the ongoing ethnic tensions within the state and the government’s ineffective handling of the issues. restore peace. However, the nuclear plant announcement comes amid rising violence in the state, which has been mired in deadly clashes since May 2023. However, it may be a blow to Prime Minister N. Biren Singh and his government but does not pose any threat. to the ruling politics of the state and the BJP in particular.

Political impact: what does the withdrawal of the nuclear power plant mean?

Led by Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma, the NPP has seven members in the 60-member Manipur Legislative Assembly. The NPP has written to the BJP to inform its president JP Nadda of their dissatisfaction over the way the violence has been handled and said the government under Biren Singh has ‘completely’ failed to control it. The party also blamed the state government for the ethnic conflict that has occurred in the state, which has left hundreds of people dead and thousands displaced.

Even after the NPP decides to withdraw its support, the BJP government is unlikely to be in danger. The BJP has 37 seats in the Assembly, well over half of its drawing board of 31. This means that even without the seven NPP legislators, the BJP can continue to govern with the support of its remaining allies, including the Janata Dal ( United States). ), with 6 seats. The party claimed that it could restore peace, while in this case this policy is already heavily criticized for its ineffectiveness.

The withdrawal of support for the nuclear power plant is seen as a tactical measure, i.e. to avoid any undesirable link resulting from the continued mismanagement of the situation. Therefore, the NPP could take advantage of popular discontent arising from the ‘failed’ BJP and try to increase its presence in the region.

The ongoing crisis in Manipur: root causes of violence

Manipur has long been associated with all ethnic communities living there, be it Meitei-Kukis-Naga, as a conflict-prone region. Over the years, demands for greater autonomy, the preservation of ethnic groups, land and control over resources have always been the source of restless unrest.

The current wave of violence began in May 2023, when clashes broke out between the Meitei and Kuki communities, with the latter accusing the state government of favoring the Meitei majority. This in turn escalated further, leading to the loss of lives and property and the displacement of many people. In addition to ethnic conflict, political discrepancies have also increased the level of violence as different ethnic communities continue to demand greater autonomy and respect for their rights.

Despite the central government’s heavy-handed approach, which included the deployment of armed forces, no lasting peace has been achieved. Some argue that these measures have only increased mistrust between communities.

The attack on Prime Minister Biren Singh’s home

The state saw a terrible rise in violence on Saturday after an angry mob tried to enter Prime Minister N. Biren Singh’s private house in Imphal. The situation was quickly dispersed by security personnel, who used tear gas canisters to disperse the crowd. Fortunately, the chief minister of the state was not at his home at the time of the attack and was confirmed to be safe in his office.

This attack represents a critical moment in the existing tensions, highlighting the level of frustration and anger the public feels towards the state government and its actions. To make matters worse, it is interesting to note that the Chief Minister’s official residence was not just any other residence, but at the center of the violence.

The attempted attack on Biren Singh’s house also raises concerns over the safety and security of political leaders and government officials in the state, as well as the apparent weariness of the masses towards the authorities. It also highlights the turbulent politics of Manipur, where the rising tide of unrest has begun to push the people to revolt against the existing order.

Can the Biren Singh government survive?

Although support for the NPP has been withdrawn, the ruling NDA government in Manipur is in a position to rule for a long time as it enjoys a majority in the Assembly. Note, however, that the political dynamics of the state are constantly changing, and the growing unrest could pose certain risks to the ruling party in the long term. Prime Minister Biren Singh’s government is under increasing pressure to find solutions to the problems that have given rise to the current crisis and move towards a permanent political solution.

Currently, various sections of society are calling for a political dialogue that includes all groups, including the Meitei, Kuki, Naga and other lesser known groups. Although the federal government has sent reinforcements to keep the peace, reports suggest that this situation is and will remain a deep-rooted political problem that cannot be cured by resorting to a military solution alone. Arguably, reconciliation is the only strategy that takes into account meeting the aspirations of various ethnic groups in Manipur, who are clamoring for autonomy, rights to land and natural resources, and respectful inclusion in governance.

What’s next for Manipur?

As the crisis continues, the people of Manipur are facing immense suffering, with thousands displaced and many lives lost. The growing dissatisfaction with the current government, as evidenced by the pressure on the nuclear power plant and the storming of the Prime Minister’s house, indicates that the situation is spiraling out of control. To stay in power, the Biren Singh government will have to restore normalcy and address the political concerns of various communities.

So far, the BJP government appears to be in power in Manipur, but whether it will be able to address the causes of the violence and work out a political settlement will soon determine how long it will retain public support and the population can expect. his allies.