Rafael strengthens to a Category 2 hurricane ahead of landfall in Cuba

MIAMI – Rafael continues to intensify, strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane early Wednesday morning. Forecasters say the late-season storm could approach major hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Cuba.

Millions of people along the U.S. Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, are keeping their eyes on the hurricane as it batters Cuba with damaging hurricane force winds, a life-threatening storm surge and devastating waves along the coast.

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that while rapid strengthening is forecast, Rafael is expected to weaken briefly as it passes through western Cuba. However, the storm is forecast to remain at hurricane strength (75 mph or higher) as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico.

Rafael has passed through parts of the western Caribbean on his journey towards Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC said hurricane conditions are expected over parts of the Cayman Islands at least until Wednesday morning.

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Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys through Wednesday night.

Heavy rain is expected in the western Caribbean, especially the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, until early Thursday. The NHC said precipitation totals of 4 to 5 inches are expected in the Cayman Islands and Cuba, with locally higher amounts of up to 10 inches in higher terrain. That raises concerns about flash floods and mudslides.

Precipitation totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected in the lower and middle Florida Keys.

Forecasters are also concerned about the possibility of a life-threatening storm surge. The NHC said storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is expected in the Cayman Islands, and 8 to 10 feet in areas with onshore winds along Cuba’s southern coast, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is forecast for the Dry Tortugas and 1 to 2 feet in the lower Florida Keys.

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Where is Hurricane Rafael?

This graph shows the status of Hurricane Rafael.
(FOX Weather)

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According to the latest advisory from the NHC, Rafael is less than 100 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth and moving northwest at 14 miles per hour.

Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 100 miles per hour. According to the official forecast, the hurricane will intensify with winds of up to 180 km/h, making it a high-end Category 2 hurricane.

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This image shows the current watches and warnings in effect due to Hurricane Rafael.

(FOX Weather)

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, as well as the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the lower and middle Florida Keys, from Key West to the Channel 5 Bridge, as well as the Dry Tortugas. The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila are also under the tropical storm warning.

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What are the forecasts for Hurricane Rafael?

This graph shows the forecast cone for Hurricane Rafael.

(FOX Weather)

According to the NHC, Rafael is expected to continue moving northwestward over the next two days, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico. On that track, Rafael is expected to pass over western Cuba later Wednesday and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday evening.

From that point on, the computer prediction models disagree on where exactly Rafael is going.

“It is too early to determine what impact Rafael could have on portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the NHC said. “Residents in this area should regularly monitor weather forecast updates.”