Fantasy Basketball: Risk vs. reward players in 2024 headlined by Jordan Poole and Josh Giddey

One of the most important things to consider when drafting your team is recognizing all the possible outcomes for each player. Sometimes we know exactly what we’re getting from an individual player. Other times we have no idea. It could be a league-winning choice, but it could also be one of the most frustrating choices you’ve ever had.

The next 10 players have a chance to hit a home run. They also have the opportunity to disappoint. It is important to understand both the reality and the concept based on what you think is correct. When drafting these guys you have to weigh the risk and reward. A smart draftsman will enjoy drafting these guys, although drafting a team full of them isn’t necessarily a wise move.

Jordan Poole

Everyone knows how bad things went for Poole last year, but if you stopped paying attention you might have missed his turn. Over his final 14 games of the season, Poole averaged 21.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 1.1 steals and 3.1 threes per game. Those games were all without Tyus Jones, and he is now in Phoenix. Malcolm Brogdon will be sidelined for the first month of the season, and the Wizards have already said Poole will be their point guard. It looks like he’s ready to bounce back.

On the other hand, there’s still a chance it won’t work that way. Poole and the Wizards were a meme for most of last season, and with a bunch of rookies in the mix, they won’t be any better. The possibility that Poole will struggle again in a tanky team is real, and we saw early on last season how bad things got.

Josh Giddey

Giddey became a liability in OKC, and a fresh start should do him some good. Chicago was willing to part with Alex Caruso to land him, and he would have to handle the ball early. It’s unclear what the starting lineup will look like, but he’s still super young and a great source of rebounds and assists. On a rebuilding team, he could pop and be worth selecting in the mid-rounds.

But what if the same issues that limited him with the Thunder follow him to Chicago? He won’t magically become a better shooter or defender overnight, and there are other guards like Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu and even Lonzo Ball who compete for minutes. He could see an even smaller role than his 25.1 minutes per game last season. Things may not get better for Giddey with a new team.

With Mikal Bridges gone, the expectation is that Thomas will step in immediately and average 25 points per game. He averaged 22.5 per game last year, and that number should easily increase if Bridges’ 15.8 shots per game are to be filled. Thomas is an elite source of points and three-pointers, and he should be able to put up some other numbers now that he’s the primary scoring option.

Cam Thomas

If that score doesn’t improve, Thomas may not make much of an impact in the category competitions. In 31.4 minutes per game, he didn’t contribute many numbers other than buckets. What if he struggles to score while more defensive attention is focused on him? Thomas could be a field goal percentage killer if he doesn’t make some improvements.

Walker Kessler

Everyone knows how good Kessler is in fantasy, but Will Hardy wasn’t interested in starting him for most of his first two seasons. However, Kessler started Utah’s first two preseason games, which is great news for fantasy managers. If Hardy continues to start him, Kessler should see more than enough minutes to shine in fantasy, especially with his elite block rate.

Unfortunately, there’s a chance Kessler won’t play more minutes just because he starts. While the expectation might be for a starting center to play more than 30 minutes per game, he could be closer to 25 minutes as Hardy opts for a more switchable frontcourt to defend guards when needed. Kessler will still be good, but he could be a bust at his ADP if he doesn’t play starter-level minutes.

Onyeka Okongwu

Is this the year? Will OO finally become the starting center in Atlanta? If he does, prepare to escape. Clint Capela has had a lot of success catching lobs from Trae Young, and Alex Len even had a solid stretch before Capela arrived. Okongwu is much more dynamic offensively, and if he can consistently get over 30 minutes per game, we’re looking at a potential top-50 finish, if not better.

Maybe it’s not the year. Maybe Capela will continue to start, or Okongwu will start and split the minutes in the middle. There’s also a chance he doesn’t improve as a rebounder, which hurts the team. OO has been primed for a breakout year since he was a rookie, and there’s always a chance we’ll have to wait another year.

Scot Henderson

Playing point guard in the NBA is not easy, and many rookies struggle with it. Henderson had a lot of hype surrounding him, and he may be able to put it together in year two. He was excellent in a high-volume role, and he can improve his efficiency with experience. He can be an elite source of points and assists in the later rounds, and if he makes the projected sophomore jump, he should exceed his ADP.

Still, we can’t just gloss over how bad Scoot was as a newcomer. 38.5% from the floor and 3.4 turnovers are horrendous numbers, especially since he averaged just 5.4 assists per game. Anfernee Simons will still have the ball a lot, and Henderson may again be ineffective when he gets the chance to play. Simply put, his inefficiency is difficult to control.

Christian Braun

With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in Orlando, the starting shooting guard spot is up for grabs in Denver. Braun got the first chance and he can be the perimeter defender they need to make up for KCP’s absence. He’s not a great shooter, but he can do a little bit of everything to help the team win. A lot of those little things combined into a big role will allow him to shine in category competitions.

Of course, we are talking about a player who has not yet finished in the top 250 of 9-cat leagues in his career. There’s a chance he won’t see his numbers improve just because his role has increased, otherwise Julian Strawther could end up giving them some space on the floor. Braun could eventually become completely irrelevant in fantasy hoops again.

Matas Buzelis

The rookie finds himself in such an interesting situation. He was an elite shooter in high school but didn’t shoot well in the G-League. Still, he managed to put up some excellent defensive numbers, and now he joins a team trying to find an identity. Buzelis should have a big role early on, and while there will be some growing pains, he’s in one of the best spots to pop as a rookie. Despite falling to eleventh place, Buzelis was able to compete for Rookie of the Year.

Like almost every newcomer, Buzelis could simply have a hard time. He had a lot of trouble in the G-League, and it may not be a smooth transition to the NBA as has been the case for many former G-League Ignite players. Buzelis’ problems will likely far outweigh the positives he can bring as a newcomer.

Degree Dick

It appears Dick is on his way to starting, and his offense could open the floor a lot for a young Raptors squad. During the final month of his rookie year, Gradey made plenty of points and three-pointers in an expanded role, and there’s no reason to think he won’t improve in year two. With Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes giving him open looks, Dick should have a big season.

However, when he rained in three-pointers last year, he didn’t really contribute much else. That could continue this season, and he hasn’t really indicated that won’t be the case. He may be a good fit from a basketball perspective, but that doesn’t mean he’ll have an impact in the fantasy world, especially in category leagues.

Keon Ellis

After Kevin Huerter went down last year, Ellis proved why he should be the team’s starting shooting guard. He was an elite source of steals and blocks for a guard, and he ultimately turned in some good performances from beyond the arc throughout the season. It’s unclear who the starter will be, but I think it should be Ellis. If so, he has a chance to make a huge, huge impact in 9-cat leagues because of his defensive skills.

Unfortunately, there is still a chance that Huerter gets the starting nod. If that happens, there may not be enough minutes to give Ellis much fantasy value, as Malik Monk will be the primary backup point guard and Devin Carter will ultimately be healthy. Ellis could be a waste of a pick if he’s stuck behind Huerter.