Tell me about that Kamala landslide

The Economic Times reported“Alan Lichtman, although a renowned historian, is known for some of his most accurate Presidential polls across decades now, and this time too, he has presented his ideas on who is going to emerge victorious in the US Presidential Elections 2024. This time things are going to be extensively tough for surveys and polls to predict, looking at the heightened political intensity and competition, with no clear picture on the poll winner for November.

“Alan Lichtman has predicted that it could be a landslide victory for Kamala Harris in November, something that other polls have predicted by not so finitely, as the margin of error has always been one of the crucial concerns for them. Looking at the fact that Lichtman has been so accurate in his poll prediction across the years, his words can prove to be a major bolster for the Democrat camp, who has been fighting ardently for ensuring a Harris victory in November.”

To landslide? Really?

Real Clear Politics just declared Minnesota a toss-up state. Democrats have carried Minnesota in the last 12 races — their longest winning streak among the 50 states. Governor Walz is ballot box poison.

He went to Lansing on Saturday for the annual Minnesota-Michigan game — and cheered for Michigan and not his state’s team. Reagan was the Gipper. Coach Walz is the Turncoat. No wonder both sides booed him. Have you never heard the Beach Boys? So be true to your school now, just like you would to your girl.

Trump went to Tuscaloosa for the Georgia-Alabama game. He didn’t take sides. The crowd cheered.

But the poll say — trusting the accuracy of the polls six weeks from the election is like trusting a Palestinian ceasefire. Right now pollsters can say whatever they want and then claim just before the election that the race is getting tighter. They get judged by their final polls, not these early ones.

That isn’t to say the polls are without some utility. The demographic breakdown in the polls are intriguing.

The NYT/Siena Poll shows Trump has a 14-point advantage among men. Kamala has a 12-point. Women outnumber men so NYT calls it a tie.

Women likely oppose Trump on abortion and emotion. They support Kamala because she is a woman and then call men who support Trump sexist.

What can Trump do to close the gap? After all these years, probably nothing. His best bet is to have women stay home, have babies and make sandwiches. Kamala will help because she has the ability to make women not want to vote.

Men likely oppose Kamala because she is unattractive and scattered-brained. She is a prevaricator by nature and refuses to admit she favors whatever new Marxist policy comes along. Men support Trump because he took one for the team.

What can she do? Stop doing what she is doing. White Dudes for Harris backfired because all those dudes are gay. I don’t mean that in a homosexual way. Remove the opposite. The dudes depicted are testosterone light. Bud Light, you might say.

Among black people, the poll showed her with only a 63-point advantage. Black voters gave Obama a 91-point advantage in 2008.

What can she do? Hit the tanning booth. Janet Jackson is not the only person who thinks she is a white Indian woman trying to pass for black. It may also reflect how little electing Obama did for black people.

The poll did not break down the Asian vote but it listed a group called others. Both candidates received 42% of the vote. Obama had a 27-point advantage among Asians and 35 among others.

You would think an Asian woman would have an advantage. Instead, she seems to have lost 27 points among Asians.

So what did she do to turn off Asians and others? By becoming black she is abandoning her Indian roots.

Well, she still has an 11-point advantage among Hispanics, right?

Obama had a 36-point advantage.

Her open borders policy does not endear her to Hispanics and likely costs her black votes too.

Oh well, she is tied in that poll, right?

Four years ago, the Trump-Biden poll by Siena showed Biden with a 9-point advantage in September.

He, um, won by 4.5-points — half that.

Remember, the polls are meant to sway the votes at this point. If the best they can do for her at this point is to say she is tied with President Trump nationally, her campaign is over.

On Sunday, the Real Clear Politics average gave her a 2.0-point advantage. On the same date in 2016, Hillary had a 3.0-point lead and in 2020, Biden had a 6.1-point lead.

But don’t go by what the polls say, go by what the polls do.

Zelensky aided and abetted the first impeachment of Trump, using the Vindman Brothers — the two biggest Ukrainian moles in the Pentagon. Their unAmerican activities showed me that corrupt nations do not just buy politicians but they rent military officers as well. Who needs three aircraft carriers when for the price of two lieutenant colonels, you can get $100 billion in aid if Russia attacks you?

On Friday, Zelensky crawled over to Trump Tower to grove for forgiveness.

Then there is morale. The IDF wiping out terrorists is uplifting to MAGA patriots because it shows that if you actually fight and don’t give a whit about world opinion, you can win.

As for Lichtman, I examined his 13 keys to victory two weeks ago. He’s wrong. Here is what I wrote:

His keys are:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves greater success in foreign or military affairs.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Lichtman said she owns No. 2, but there really was a contest for the nomination between Biden and her. That it was so sudden and so late in the process really hurts her chances.

(SKIP)

Lichtman gave her No. 8 (“There is no sustained social unrest during the term”) but tell that to the apartment dwellers in Aurora, Colorado, or the pet owners in Springfield, Ohio. Remember when Duck, Duck, Goose was a children’s game and not the menu at a Haitian barbecue? The song How Much Is The Doggy In The Window? you have taken a whole new meaning.

The invasion by millions of military-aged men — many of them armed and dangerous — has disrupted Democrat towns and cities from Martha’s Vineyard to Denver and places in between such as NYC and Chicago.

On top of that, the anti-Semitic wing of the Democrat Party has taken to the streets on college campus after college campus demanding that Israel be erased from the river to the sea.

(SKIP)

Lichtman gave her No. 9 — no scandal.

Really? The president’s son just pleaded guilty to federal tax evasion on the bribes he collected on behalf of his dad. Remember, kids, 10% goes to the big guy.

Finally, Lichtman gave her No. 13, claiming Trump has no charisma.

The dude is not only charismatic but after being indicted, mug shot, convicted and rifle shot, Trump is a national hero.

So those eight keys Lichtman gave Kamala are really four. Well, that is in keeping with inflation, isn’t it?

Lichtman is wrong about his very own keys.

* * *

So Zelensky grovels and Kamala begs for another debate to get the media say she won.

Meanwhile, Biden put on a red Trump hat. Biden is 10-0 in general elections against Republicans going back to 1972. Maybe he knows something about elections.

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