Fantasy Football fact or coincidence: View RB results after three weeks

The thing I love the most, or at least love to hate the most, in fantasy football is the complete and utter disrespect for the rules. There’s a lot of “It’s Week 3 and we think we know what happens next” content out there right now, so I’m going to take a slightly different approach; a broader look at the season so far as it relates to our self-imposed fantasy rules.

The purpose of this column is to separate the fantasy performances we think we can trust in the future — good or bad — from those we think are random, one-off performances. We’ll never get them all right. Take poor Isaiah Likely, for example. I maintain that the Ravens were at their best when he played a prominent role in the passing game, and that’s a role that carries a ton of fantasy value. But I can’t make them throw the ball to him.

I’m hoping that by zooming out we can come to some conclusions that will help us make as many good decisions as possible going into Week 4 and beyond. The two fantasy “rules” I want to focus on today are 1) older (29-30 years old) running backs are washed/ready to fall off the fantasy cliff and 2) injury replacements taken off waivers should be saved, not started (in Weeks 2-3).

As for Rule 1, the early rounds (especially Round 1) were loaded with young running backs (minus Christian McCaffrey) who were outclassed by a bunch of veterans from Rounds 2+. Will this trend continue throughout the season? Let’s dive in:

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Kamara is one of many backs in his 29th season. Thanks to an insane Week 2, he’s your second-highest-scoring fantasy back despite being drafted as the RB17. He hasn’t disappointed fantasy managers yet, though, with at least 110 combined yards in every game and five total touchdowns. Even with Derek Carr and Rashid Shaheed returning to Earth in Week 3, Kamara was still a focal point of the Saints’ offense.

While we typically see opponents dominate the Eagles’ weak secondary — and Chris Olave stands out in that regard — Kamara was nearly as good. New Orleans has some tough matchups coming up and I’m not convinced Kamara can stay healthy with this heavy usage across all matchups, but start him if you have him (he’s not a huge acquisition target and I’d happily trade him for an upgrade at WR).

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are the surprise team of 2024 behind Sam Darnold (!?!), Justin Jefferson and, of course, Jones. Jones is the unknown piece here, as another aging back who will turn 30 before the end of the season. He fell behind a bit against San Francisco in Week 2 but is the RB11 in half-PPR scoring with an average of 16.2 fantasy points per game, ahead of Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Travis Etienne, all of whom were drafted ahead of him.

On the other hand, his workload has been inconsistent early in the season and he missed significant time last year due to injury. As such, I have the most confidence in Jones in good matchups, but when healthy he should continue to provide value — especially looking ahead to the Week 4 revenge game against Green Bay.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

What do these top three have in common, besides being older and on new teams? They scored four rushing touchdowns in the first three weeks. Baltimore tries different game plans every week, with varying degrees of success. They finally got the big win over Dallas this weekend, and Henry played a big part in the game plan.

His usage has increased each week and with it his YPC (6.0 in Week 3, up from 3.5 in Week 1), rushing and receiving yards, and touchdowns. I do think Week 3 was a ceiling game for Henry, but he has some nice matchups coming up and should be able to produce in the 15-20 fantasy points per game neighborhood against Buffalo, Cincinnati, Washington, and Tampa Bay.

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

I can think of exactly one person who had Barkley as their RB1 this summer, but here we are. Averaging 26.5 half-PPR fantasy points per game, Barkley not only leads all RBs, but all players through the first three weeks of the season. At 27 years old in his seventh season, Barkley is younger than the rest of these guys, but he appears to be in his prime. This is a fantasy-friendly team for RBs, and could become even more so if the trend toward fewer Jalen Hurts tush pushes continues (he and Barkley have tied four total carries inside the five-yard line, each scoring once).

Barkley may have the second-highest carry rate, averaging 21 per game, but he gets a lot of work done in space, averaging 5.6 YPC. Barkley may not stay at No. 1 all year, but he should continue to provide managers with extreme value. A clear target to retain or acquire in all leagues.

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And how are the young first-round RBs doing?

Breece Hall, NY Jets

As others have noted, Hall is one of the few good first-round picks this season. The second-year back hasn’t put up flashy efficiency numbers and has some issues with ball security (two fumbles, one already lost), but he’s a big factor in the passing game (19 targets, T-most in league among RBs).

Of the starting RBs, only Jones (30%) has a higher target per route run percentage than Hall (28%). Hall is the first-round pick someone should pluck from my cold, dead hands.

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

I can’t seem to even type the word Miami without grinning. They look BAD — on both sides of the ball. Achane looked to be a league-leader again in Week 3, averaging 26 fantasy points per game. He’s still tied with Hall for the most RB targets, but until this offense figures out how to move the ball and sustain drives, Achane will be hampered. It remains to be seen who plays QB, but I’m not optimistic about the Dolphins’ ability at this point.

Kyren Williams, LA Rams

Williams was a somewhat controversial pick at the turn of the draft this year, as fans and media alike loved Blake Corum in the preseason. The first two games have been good, not great, for Williams, but it wasn’t for lack of involvement. He boasts one of the highest utility rates among running backs in the league, completing about 80% of the Rams’ carries and 100% of those carries inside the five.

The fact that he doubled his fantasy rating against the 49ers in Week 3 when receiving options were…limited…speaks to his toughness and ability. Barring a Week 6 bye, the upcoming schedule is favorable for Williams and his fantasy managers.

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

There is some fantasy value for B. Robinson in the 2024 season, but unfortunately it’s not Bijan in Round 1. There’s still time, and the fact that he finally scored in Week 3 was nice, but we’re not happy with his level of production. Usage isn’t the issue; he’s involved in 84% of the snaps, including all goal-line and passing downs. His efficiency wasn’t bad in Weeks 1 and 2, with his 4-5 targets per game helping him in PPR formats, but the Chiefs proved he’s not invincible.

I fear things will get worse in Week 4 against the Saints, and there are few bright spots in the upcoming schedule. With the Falcons suffering two injuries to their offensive line this weekend, I worry that Robinson won’t pay his first-round price tag.

In regards to rule 2 as mentioned in the intro, injury replacements have been really good… on fantasy benches. A smart manager will pick up the hot waiver claim in these early weeks, but if you’re not the one who lost the starter, your team can still feel super loaded. Who do you bench for the true replacement? There may be some value in blocking others in your league to add him, but let’s take a look at some of the hot backups and assess their future value.

Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers

Mason has started in most fantasy leagues by now, but he wasn’t in Week 1. What’s next? His rushing attempts, yardage, YPC, and scoring have all declined over the first three weeks. Teams are focusing on Mason as the biggest threat, allowing Brock Purdy to play the bigs.

It didn’t help that rookie Isaac Guerendo got five carries in Week 3. Still, Mason is “the guy,” playing 80% of the snaps and getting 71% of the carries. He had five RZ rushing attempts in Week 3 alone. He should be back in the end zone in Week 4 against New England.

Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks

He was excellent in Week 3 against Miami’s would-be defense, but Kenneth Walker III hopes to return for Week 4 and it’s a tough matchup with the Lions, who are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opponents this season (a continuation of last season). It’s time to look at another option if you’ve been enjoying the Charbonnet experience lately.

Carson Steele, Kansas City Chiefs

In this case, it was smart to wait, because Steele certainly wasn’t going to take the field with a charging alligator. Still, he managed 71 yards on 17 carries and had six RZ rushing attempts in Week 3. He remains a starter in Week 4 if you’re desperate for the position (who isn’t?).

Cam Akers, Houston Texans

We’ve been down this road before, so I understand the hesitation in letting Akers start happily against the Vikings, who appear to have the best defense in football. While the script played a role, Akers’ nine carries for 21 yards were abysmal by any standard. He did score a receiving touchdown to produce a mediocre fantasy day. Based on what James Cook did with the Jaguars on MNF, Akers could be more valuable in Week 4 if Joe Mixon misses another game.

BONUS: Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Jennings is the name on everyone’s lips this week after an astonishing 11/175/3 line against the Rams in Week 3. Yes, we knew George Kittle and Deebo Samuel were out, and a few people added Jennings (but he’s still a free agent in the 12-team, 30-player dynasty league I’m in), but most (all?) didn’t start him. “Let’s wait and see… it’s all Brandon Aiyuk,” we said.

Will Jennings put up those numbers next week? Absolutely not. But the Niners do have some nice matchups coming up and Jennings is no fluke; he has the hands and route-running skills to make the most of a good opportunity.