Fantasy Football Week 2 Defense (DST) Rankings and Streamers

We finally got a week of real, live NFL games, and, in true NFL fashion, we got some craziness as well, like the Bengals losing to the Patriots, the Jaguars blowing what seemed like a surefire win against the Dolphins, and the Titans being the third team OUT OF 309 teams to lose a game where they had been winning by two or more scores at halftime and never allowed an offensive touchdown all game.

With all of that said, it’s important to remember that we now have a week of sample data, but it remains just one week. Teams that looked great this week could faceplant next week. Offenses that were sleepwalking this week could wake up next week. We want to use this information for our benefit but not rely on it too much.

Which is why I should make it clear that I have started to create my BOD rankings for the season using the formula listed below, but I don’t put too much stock in it until we have at least four weeks of data to go off of. In my previous years of experience, that is where I’ve started to see certain key stats like turnover rate or pressure rate begin to feel more realistic. So I’ll have my BOD rankings listed below, but we don’t need to focus too much on them for now.

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As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will the my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.

Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are. This week, we had five of the top 10 defenses correctly called, which is not great, but I’ll take a 50% hit rate early in the season as we figure out these teams.

2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)

WEEK 1: 5-5

SEASON-LONG: 5-5

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.

To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula and added third-down success rate this season because I think defenses that have trouble getting off the field on third down tend to be defenses that allow more points. And shoutout to Jake Grossman who puts together the Explosive Play Rate data that I’m using below. Follow him on Twitter here.

(QB HIT RATE + PASSES DEFENDED RATE + (TURNOVER RATE X 2))

DIVIDED BY

(3RD DOWN CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED + EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE ALLOWED + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 2))

With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 2?

Tier 1 this week is filled with strong defenses who also happen to have solid matchups.

The Steelers looked good in Week 1 against the Falcons, finishing with 12 points in Fantasy Pros scoring thanks to allowing just 10 points while registering two sacks, seven quarterback hits, and a recovered fumble. That was against a Falcons offense that we thought would take a step forward in 2024. We don’t believe that for the Denver Broncos. Although the Broncos gave the Seahawks a bit of a fight last week, the offense did not look good, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix was far from impressive. As Gregg Rosenthal pointed out on Twitter, Nix was 2-for-12 for 42 yards and two interceptions when he attempted a pass more than 10 yards down the field in his NFL debut. I think Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are going to have him spinning in circles this weekend.

Yes, I know the Jets allowed 30+ points to the 49ers on Monday Night Football, but I’m not going to punish a team too much for losing to a Super Bowl favorite. I still believe in the talent on the Jets’ side of the ball, and like the matchup on the other side too. I wasn’t a huge fan of the Bears’ defense this past week because I thought the Titans’ offense had some solid skill players. Well, that was a miscalculation. DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t look fully healthy, and Will Levis made some terrible plays on Sunday. Yes, a lot of the Bears’ fantasy total came from a blocked punt touchdown which is hard to predict and rely on week-over-week, but the Bears’ defense was also rarely tested by the Titans’ offense, and this Jets defense is better, so I feel comfortable rolling with them in Week 2.

You’re going to look at what the Vikings offense did to the Giants and feel like Sam Darnold and company are a solid offense, but the Giants’ defense allowed points on just 30% of drives (10th-best in the NFL last week) and forced two turnovers to go along with one sack. That gave the Giants five fantasy points despite being thoroughly outplayed. Now the Vikings will have a major step up in class against the 49ers and will also be playing without Jordan Addison, who aggravated his ankle injury in Sunday’s win. If the Giants can put up five points, I wouldn’t be surprised if the 49ers push double digits here since they just easily handled a Jets offense that has more playmakers than the Vikings have.

We’ve believed in the Chargers defense before and they’ve let us down, but it’s hard to see what they did to the Raiders and what the Saints did to the Panthers and not feel confident about the Chargers’ defense this week. The Chargers limited the Raiders to points on just 15.4% of their drives, which was the best in the NFL this weekend, while also generating three turnovers and recording four sacks. Bryce Young still looks overmatched at the NFL level, and the Panthers only have one truly solid NFL player on offense in Diontae Johnson. Jesse Minter is a solid defensive coordinator and I expect him to have this Chargers defense ready to expose Young’s weakness at reading NFL defenses.

The Ravens had a stiff test in Week 1 against the Chiefs, but things get much easier here against a Raiders offense that couldn’t move the ball consistently against the Chargers. Gardner Minshew is fun to watch, sometimes, but is not much of an upgrade on Aidan O’Connell, and Zamir White lacks a lot of burst as the featured back in Las Vegas. The Chargers also registered four sacks, so I think this Ravens pass rush will get after Minshew and cause problems for the Raiders offense all game long.

I know the Saints’ offense looked great against the Panthers in Week 1, but it was the Panthers. This Dallas defense meanwhile just throttled the Browns, holding them to 3.3 yards per play while racking up six sacks and two interceptions. Now, we can criticize Deshaun Watson all we want, but the Browns’ offensive line is solid, and the Cowboys had their way with them. I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Saints’ offensive line, and Derek Carr is known to take some bad sacks. The Saints aren’t a bad offense, but I don’t think they’re an elite one, and this play is more about trusting the talent on Dallas’ defense.

Look, the Patriots surprised us against the Bengals and maybe that’s more of a statement on the Bengals than the Patriots; however, the Patriots have also put together really strong defenses in the past. I’m not sure I can fully trust the Patriots’ defense yet, but the Seahawks’ offense had a bit of trouble against the Broncos’ defense in Week 1 and Kenneth Walker is coming into this game banged up. This feels like a bit more of a floor play to me where the Patriots seem like a safe bet to post a solid effort, but I’m not sure I fully believe how strong they looked last week.

In the same vein, yes, the Patriots beat the Bengals last week, but I’m not going to let one game change my mind that the Patriots are an offense we want to attack. I know Jacoby Brissett is a smart quarterback, and he isn’t going to make a lot of mistakes, so I can’t elevate the Seahawks to Tier 1, but I think they can duplicate the nine fantasy points they scored against the Broncos after holding them to 3.3 yards per play while generating two turnovers.

This Browns offense is bad. Deshaun Watson looks terrible, and Jerome Ford is just a huge step down from a healthy Nick Chubb. I know the Jaguars gave up 400 yards on Sunday, but they held a strong Dolphins offense to 20 total points and were able to notch three sacks against skinny Tua Tagovailoa. I expect them to have a better day against a much weaker Browns offense, but I’m also happy to trust the Browns’ defense against a Jaguars offense that seemed fairly pedestrian on Sunday, gaining just 267 yards against a Dolphins defense with tons of question marks. The Browns are the better defense here, but the Jaguars defense has the better matchup, so I think it’ll come out in the wash a bit and we’ll see these units finish pretty close together.

Yes, I’m going back to the well with the Texans’ defense. I think this is a good unit, but they gave up some big plays to Anthony Richardson in Week 1. Richardson completed only nine total passes, but many of them went for huge chunk plays, and he made big plays with his legs as well. I think that’s more a statement on his overall ability than it is on the lack of talent that Houston has on defense. Caleb Williams will likely be a good NFL quarterback, but he lacks the natural playmaking ability of Richardson, and Williams looked a bit overmatched at times in his NFL debut. I expect DeMeco Ryans to put some pressure on him in his second start, and I think this Texans offense will be able to hold down a Bears offense that only gained 244 yards on 4.0 yards per play against the Titans.

I wasn’t impressed by the Colts defense on Sunday. Granted, the Texans could be an elite offense, but the Colts allowed 417 yards, 29 total points, and points on 60% of their defensive drives. Oh, and they didn’t force a single turnover. That’s not ideal, and there is a lot of talent on the Packers offense. However, the Packers will also be without Jordan Love, and we can’t ignore that, which is why I’m going to slide the Colts into the back of Tier 2 right now. Malik Willis is not a starting quarterback at the NFL level.

On paper, the Giants and Commanders offenses are both offenses we want to target, but both of these defenses also didn’t look great in Week 1. The Commanders allowed 392 yards and 37 points to the Bucs while not forcing a single turnover and only registering one sack, while the Giants allowed 312 yards and 28 points to the Vikings. Now the Giants DST did put up five fantasy points thanks to two turnovers while the Commanders were the lowest-scoring defense of the week with -3 fantasy points. I have a hard time trusting either of these units right now; I don’t care how good the matchup seems. However, in deeper formats, I can talk myself into the Commanders because of how bad Daniel Jones looked in Week 1.

The Titans defense was really good in Week 1. We have to acknowledge that. I know this Bears offense isn’t elite, but they added a lot of talent in the offseason, and the Titans held them to 148 total yards. Yes, 148 total yards on 2.8 yards per play. The Bears didn’t score a single offensive touchdown. The Jets are likely better than they showed against the 49ers, but did Aaron Rodgers really look that great? We know his mobility will be hindered in his advancing age, and I’m just not sure there are many playmakers aside from Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, so the Titans could be a sneaky defense this week.

I don’t know what to make of the Bengals offense. They looked horrible against the Patriots, but it’s still Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. You know the Bengals are going to come ready to play against the Chiefs to avoid an 0-2 start, so I just have a hard time getting excited about playing the Chiefs defense.

The Broncos defense looked fine against the Seahawks last week, allowing points on 38.5% of drives but also forcing two turnovers and registering two sacks. They now get a Steelers offense that looked so bland on Sunday, scoring 18 points on 270 total yards against a Falcons defense that was one of the worst in football last year. Denver will be at home, in the altitude, and I just don’t think this Steelers offense has that many playmakers, so this feels like a safe floor game to me.

In that same game, the Falcons were only able to score 10 points on 226 total yards while turning the ball over three times. Kirk Cousins doesn’t look fully recovered from last year’s Achilles injury, and while the Eagles’ defense is not the same quality as the Steelers’ defense, I think the Eagles offense is going to put up plenty of points against Atlanta, which will put the Falcons in catch-up mode and allow for plenty of sacks and turnovers. If I trusted the Eagles’ defense a bit more, I’d likely have them in Tier 2 and maybe I’ll regret not doing so.

A lot of these defenses are defenses that I have some trust in but all of them have a few question marks that are irking me and they get bad matchups.

The Saints were great in Week 1, but the Cowboys are worlds better than the Panthers, and I just don’t know how good this Saints defense is. Yes, the Bears and Vikings also looked good in Week 1, but they play the Texans and 49ers respectively, and I just don’t trust these defenses enough to use them in those matchups. The Bills and Dolphins defenses both lost lots of talent in the offseason and they both feature elite offenses, so it’s hard to play either team.

The Rams looked better against the Lions than I expected, and the Cardinals will get to play a Rams offense without Puka Nacua, but I still don’t trust these defenses enough to use them outside of some DFS tournaments.

Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.