Ramp to Camp: Predicting the Celtics’ Winnings in 2024-25

Ramp to Camp: Predicting the Celtics’ Winning Totals in 2024-25 originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The 2023-24 Boston Celtics have the fourth-most wins in team history. What does this group have planned for an encore?

For the fifth episode of our Driveway to Camp 2024 series, we gave our panel a layup for the end of the week: Give us a prediction for the Celtics’ win total in 2024-25 and where they’ll finish seeded in the Eastern Conference.

(Watch the first four episodes of Ramp to Camp here.)

Not surprisingly, our panel is fairly optimistic about the Celtics remaining atop the East. However, their record predictions did suggest that the team’s win total could decline from last season. Boston has 64 wins in the 2023-24 season, trailing only the teams from 1972-73 (68 wins), 1985-86 (67) and 2007-08 (66).

But half of our panel sees the Celtics’ win total declining significantly this season. Their reasoning is sound: no Kristaps Porzingis to start the season, a strengthened Eastern Conference, and a battle against complacency when the ultimate goal can’t be reached until June.

History would also suggest a possible dip. The 1973-74 Celtics won just 56 games, while the 1986-87 Celtics won 59.

But for us, the 2008-09 Celtics are an intriguing comp. And that group offers a roadmap to maintaining a high win total.

Like the 2007-08 group, these Celtics won a title in their first season after assembling an elite collection of talent. Both teams returned with very similar rosters. (That 2008-09 squad lost James Posey, but featured the same starting five of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins.)

A 19-game winning streak put that 2008-09 team at an astonishing 27-2 heading into a Christmas Day showdown with the Los Angeles Lakers. Boston was 41-9 after another 12-game winning streak that lasted into early February, putting the team on pace for 67 wins heading into the All-Star break.

Tragedy struck in late February when Kevin Garnett injured his right knee in Utah. He sat out the next 13 games before attempting to return in late March. He ended up sitting out the rest of the season. The Celtics lost a seven-game series to the Magic in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

While the 2007-08 Celtics are romanticized for starting Banner 17 right after acquiring Garnett and Ray Allen, there’s an argument to be made that the 2008-09 squad was even better. Barring injury to Garnett, it’s fair to wonder whether the Celtics can challenge the franchise’s all-time win record and perhaps even win a title.

That’s our long-winded way of saying the 2024-25 Celtics don’t necessarily have to take a huge step back from their win total this season. Not having Porzingis in the starting lineup isn’t ideal, but this team knows how to win without him. This team can also tap into the continuity and chemistry from last season with the potential to hit full throttle again this year.

Encouraged by that 2008-2009 team, we place the Celtics at 62-20 and another first-place finish in the Eastern Conference. It’s a slight step back, but would still be a top 10 win total in franchise history.

They will need to show the same mental resilience as last year’s group to avoid a series of defeats, but the talent is too great not to reach the 60-win mark again.

Here are the rest of our panel’s predictions: