Thursday Night Football Ravens vs. Chiefs: Fantasy Football Analysis

You can watch Thursday Night Football: Ravens vs. Chiefs at 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT on NBC or stream on Peacock, Fubo, DirecTV, and NFL+

This is it. We finally made it. After all that fantasy football draft prep, the points finally count tonight. Week 1 is here! And what a game we get to kick things off! Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens take on reigning Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Let’s hope for fantasy fireworks.

More of the same from Derrick Henry?

The marriage between Henry and the Ravens was too good, too perfect, not to happen. The same Ravens offense that led Gus Edwards to 13 touchdowns in 2023 now gets one of the most dominant rushing forces of the past decade.

So Henry has to score three touchdowns in this game, right?

I’m especially curious to see if Henry will be used as the same downhill bulldozer he was with the Titans, or if the Ravens will give him a different backfield look (motion, read-option, screen passes, etc.) against the Chiefs’ potent front line. Henry, of course, gets a key addition in Lamar Jackson, which creates something of a pick-your-poison issue for opposing defenses.

Will you load the box to prevent Henry from breaking through to the second level? Will you deploy a spy to slow down Lamar Jackson? Will you spread out to prevent Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews from beating you to the punch?

It’s quite a conundrum. And it’s hard to see a real negative or nitpicky point for Henry, other than the elephant in the room: Will Father Time finally get him?

Either way, his first game for his new team will undoubtedly be a statement.

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Is Travis Kelce being handled with kid gloves?

Travis Kelce was a 2023 second-round fantasy draft pick, and much to the disappointment of managers looking for that positional advantage, Kelce missed opening night (and had to watch the coming out party for eventual TE1 Sam LaPorta).

Kelce returned to form when he returned to the field, but things took a turn the week of Thanksgiving. From that point on, Kelce was strangely…quiet. He would not pass for more than 85 yards or score a touchdown in any week until the end of the regular season.

Of course, he would then go all out in the play-offs on his way to another ring.

The question now, with Kelce approaching 35, is whether the Chiefs will start Kelce’s “load management” any earlier this season? Will they risk him getting clobbered by the Ravens’ powerful linebacker and safety corps?

I’d be surprised if Kelce gets a big yardage or catch total in this game — but it’s not because he’s washed or because the Chiefs are trying to protect him. It’s because of my next thing to watch for…

Will Rashee Rice and/or Xavier Worthy set the tone for the season early?

Rashee Rice was an excellent, much-needed addition to the Chiefs in Year 1. While they didn’t exactly run him deep on his routes, he was an efficient chain-mover with serious YAC skills. He gave the Chiefs something the team hasn’t had since Tyreek Hill — a consistent wide receiver.

Now, the Chiefs will pair Rice with speed merchant, first-round pick Xavier Worthy, giving fantasy fans hope for another DeSean Jackson-Andy Reid connection. You may have to hop in a time machine to see this one, but Jackson has back-to-back 100-yard catches in the first two games of his professional career. While I don’t expect Worthy to put up a flashy catch total in this game, I do expect a catch of 25+ yards to come at some point during those four quarters, especially with Hollywood Brown on the shelf.

And don’t be surprised if Mahomes uses his two young wideouts early and often tonight, while Kelce is more of a third-down/red-zone specialist.

Will Zay Flowers make a leap forward in Week 1?

Zay Flowers had moments of brilliance during his rookie season, flashing his sharp route-running ability and giving the Ravens a much-needed deep threat. He has scored five touchdowns in his final seven games of the 2023 season, including the postseason.

Of course, Flowers also made some mind-numbing mistakes last season that clouded his outlook somewhat.

Still, we know the talent is there. And we love his finish to 2023, along with the 108 targets he received. There’s no reason to believe Flowers isn’t the 1B to Mark Andrews’ 1A in the Ravens’ target pecking order, and there’s no better time than Week 1 against the defending champs for the second-year receiver to build on his solid rookie season. Fantasy managers who view Flowers as a high-upside flex option should look for him to collect 5+ targets in Week 1 — if he can, even better things could be in store for him in 2024.

Are Samaje Perine’s fears nothing more than that: fears?

Isiah Pacheco was drafted in the second round in most 12-team leagues. Essentially, people probably drafted him as their RB1 or a high-upside RB2 to pair with a first-round running back. So you could hear the collective groan from Pacheco executives when they read the news about the addition of Samaje Perine to the Chiefs’ backfield. Perine has long been a third-down, passing-game specialist — an area where everyone hoped Pacheco would see a bigger role in 2024.

I doubt Perine will seriously affect Pacheco’s seasonal prospects.

Let’s not forget that the 25-year-old Pacheco went on a bit of a rampage to close out 2023, scoring seven touchdowns in his last 10 games. Oh, and he’s also caught 32 of 34 targets in those games.

This should be a close game between two AFC giants. If Pacheco gets swapped for Perine in tough passing situations in this matchup, I’m all for sweating (but it’s too early to panic).