Best Bets and Pitch Props

Corners, edges, scams, you name it. If you bet early on pitcher props, there are always a handful when you examine the matchups.

In this article, I’ll highlight the best pitcher angles to look at for that day’s slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets available to you. You may not come to the same conclusion as I did with the bet, but the data is the key.

Let’s dig up some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Wednesday, September 4.

Josh’s Top Starting Pitcher Edges: September 4

• Stroman u17.5 out (-115)
• Canning u4.5 strikeouts (-130)

Today’s Best SP Corners

New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers

The angle: Marcus Stroman’s outmarket is too high.

That’s not a huge upside, but more of an under play on Marcus Stroman’s career-high 17.5 outs total. He’s gone under that number in 11 of his last 14 starts despite averaging more than 90 pitches per outing.

He has also seen a poor run of offense lately, facing the Rangers four starts ago, where he pitched well, allowing one run on four hits. However, he was inefficient, striking out just 15 batters on 89 pitches. Stroman’s ceiling is low, having gone over 18 only three times in 26 starts.

He gives a buy recommendation at -130, as he expects 16.4 outs today.

The move: Marcus Stroman Under 17.5 outs (-115 at bet365)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels

The angle: It’s a tough match with great batting conditions for Griffin Canning.

The home team’s starter is projecting just 3.8 strikeouts today against the Dodgers, who are red-hot and a gauntlet of a lineup. They’ve struck out at 21% the past two weeks, which ranks in the bottom third of the league, and the weather may not help Griffing Canning, who has just 65 Ks in 87 innings since June 1.

Today’s weather conditions won’t be great, but Angel Stadium will be around 90 degrees with a strong 9 mph wind blowing to the right.

Canning’s Under 4.5 Ks is listed at -130, but that’s going to drop to around -150 today. I’d take it to -140, and if that’s too expensive, add “pitcher to win NO” to boost it. In his last 13 starts, Canning has made this Over against Seattle (twice), Colorado, the Mets, and Oakland.

The move: Griffin Canning Under 4.5 strikeouts (-130 at bet365)

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