Top Picks from the CFB Betting Splits for Saturday, August 31

Today marks the official start of Week 1 of the college football season. You can follow the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

In the meantime, let’s take a look at where the smartest bets are for three matches today.

Penn State finished 10-3 last season with a 13th place ranking. The Nittany Lions’ win total this season is 10.5 with an under juiced to -165. On the other hand, West Virginia went 9-4 last season and finished unranked. The Mountaineers’ win total this season is 6.5 with an over juiced to -130. Today’s line opened with Penn State as a 10-point favorite going into the game. The public sees an easy double-digit win with the 8th-ranked Nittany Lions and rushes to tie the score with Penn State. However, despite receiving 65% of the spread bets, we have seen Penn State fall from -10 to -7.5. This signals a sharp reverse line movement on West Virginia as the line moves in their direction despite being the unpopular side. The Mountaineers receive 35% of the spread bets and 47% of the spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” betting split. West Virginia has a fishy buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent. The Mountaineers are also one of the best “bets against the crowd” in the early window, receiving about a third of the bets in a nationally televised FOX broadcast.

Eastern Michigan went 6-7 last season and their win total for this season is pegged at 4.5 with the over juiced to -150. Conversely, Massachusetts went 3-9 last season and their win total for this year is 3.5 with the over juiced to -125. This afternoon’s line opened with Eastern Michigan as a 1.5 point favorite. The public is happy to ignore UMass, who has been one of the worst teams in college football in recent years. However, despite 55% of the spread betting backing Eastern Michigan, we have seen this line completely swing away from Eastern Michigan and toward Massachusetts (+1.5 to -2.5). This signals a sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on UMass, as the line has moved heavily in their favor despite being the unpopular side. The Minutemen are taking home 45% of the spread bets and 65% of the spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low stakes, higher dollar” betting split. This line move is also notable because this is one of the least popular games of the day, but the wiseguys have their eyes on the Minutemen specifically. Those who want to go with the sharp UMass move but are reluctant to put up the points in what could ultimately be a close game can instead target the Minutemen on the moneyline at -135. This is also a revenge spot for UMass, who lost a close game at Eastern Michigan 19-17 last season.

Notre Dame went 10-3 last season, finishing with a 14th overall ranking. The Fighting Irish’s win total for the season is 10 with the over juiced to -115. Meanwhile, Texas A&M went 7-6, finishing unranked. The Aggies’ win total for the season is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120. Tonight’s primetime line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The Sharps have jumped on the Aggies and put a short home spread, moving Texas A&M from -1.5 to -3. This move is especially notable given that Texas A&M is ranked 20th and Notre Dame is ranked 7th, but the line is moving in the direction of the fishy Aggies who hold the worst ranking. Normally, you would expect the line to move in the direction of the better-ranked team. Texas A&M is receiving 57% of the spread betting, which suggests some public support. However, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move 1.5 points based on a relatively even betting spread. So, based on the “sharp” adjustment, we know the pros have the Aggies on the moneyline, ideally at -2.5 or less. Those who want to back the sharp Texas A&M line move but are wary of betting the key number 3 right now could instead target the Aggies to win the game outright on the moneyline (-150).